Bitcoin's short-window correlations broke down in a single session: dollar link moved from -0.54 to +0.08 (sign reversal — the mechanism stopped operating, not just loosened), S&P 500 from 0.75 to 0.43, Nasdaq from 0.60 to 0.30, gold from 0.69 to 0.28. CMC's Alice Liu: "the beta hedge that worked Monday is unreliable today, and today's FOMC reaction may be swamped by regulatory follow-through." The CLARITY Act failure explains it — a regulatory outcome specific to one asset class decouples it from macro, which is expected behavior, but arriving the day before an FOMC decision that would ordinarily dominate. The channel that still works regardless: yield volatility. Sharp moves in the 10-year tighten financial conditions through funding and liquidity, not directional correlation. The 10-year at 5.04% and 30-year at 5.40% — both at multi-decade highs — are the variables to watch after the decision.$BTC

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