At 2:30 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday, September 17, the Federal Reserve FOMC interest rate decision press conference will be chaired by Kevin Warsh.

The prevailing market expectation: a 25 bp rate hike is highly likely this time.

A brief overview of the three scenarios and their impact on crypto risk assets:

✅【Highest probability: 25 bp rate hike】
This would be a one-off adjustment and would not signal the start of consecutive rate hikes. Future policy will depend entirely on inflation data, and there are divisions within the committee.
If the rate hike is implemented but Warsh strikes a dovish tone, signaling that there will be no further hikes, the crypto market could get a chance to catch its breath; if his remarks are hawkish, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields will rise, putting risk assets such as BTC under pressure.

⚠️【Low probability: Rates remain unchanged】
An unexpected pause would weaken the dollar, while gold and the crypto market could rebound. However, this would damage the Fed's policy credibility, and market volatility would intensify.

❌【Extremely low probability: 50 bp rate hike】
This would be unexpectedly hawkish, strengthening the dollar and tightening liquidity, with the crypto market likely facing significant selling pressure.

💡Key reminder:
The rate decision is only the outcome; the wording at Warsh's press conference is what will truly drive the market.
Fed policy directly affects dollar liquidity, and liquidity is an important macro variable for the crypto market. Volatility will increase before and after the meeting, so high-leverage positions require caution.

⚠️Disclaimer: The above is only a market scenario analysis and does not constitute any investment advice. #美联储即将公布利率决定 $BTC .