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‌Impact of U.S. August CPI Data on Fed Rate Hikes and Gold Price Movements
Key Information Summary

1. Core Background

• U.S. August CPI is the Fed’s final inflation card before next week’s policy meeting. After the PPI data was released, the market-implied probability of a rate hike surged from 60% to 73%, while gold plunged $120 overnight, closing at 4316.

• The video focuses on breaking down the logic for interpreting CPI and distinguishing between the different impacts of headline CPI and core CPI.

2. The “Two Bills” Logic of CPI

• Headline CPI: Includes prices of gasoline, food, and other items, which are affected by uncontrollable factors such as the situation in the Middle East and the weather. The Fed cannot directly control these factors, so they are considered “external injuries.”

• Core CPI: Excludes food and energy and includes rent, medical care, wage-based services, and other items. This is the true inflation “core” that the Fed focuses on.

3. Market Expectations and Rate-Hike Assessment

• Market consensus: 0.4% month-on-month for headline CPI and 0.2% month-on-month for core CPI.

• Rate-hike probabilities corresponding to different data:

◦ Core CPI at 0.1% month-on-month or lower: Inflation is receding, and the probability of no rate hike in September rises again;

◦ Core CPI at 0.2% month-on-month: Bulls and bears remain locked in a struggle;

◦ Core CPI at 0.3% month-on-month: The hawks win, and a rate hike is basically confirmed.

• Video view: The 5.4% PPI figure reflects superficial strength driven by oil prices, while core month-on-month growth was just 0.2%, below expectations, indicating that the inflation core is mild. CPI will most likely follow the same logic as PPI.

4. Additional Reminder

• The 73% rate-hike pricing was fully priced in by traders themselves. Fed officials have previously said they would not act based on a single data point.

• Market panic is self-reinforcing. As long as core inflation does not surge, the higher it rises, the more sharply it may fall. Volatility is expected to be very high tonight, so do not rush to take a side before the data is released.

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This page contains third-party content and does not constitute any advice, nor does it represent Gate's endorsement of such views. For details, please see disclaimer.

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FINCRYPT

2026-09-12

great insight Lets analysis Eth and sol for next step

MayAllYourWishesComeTrue16881

2026-09-12

I think this drop is completely normal. Setting the news aside, let me talk about the technicals: Ethereum’s parallel ascending channel has a trend-support gap at 2380. As I said, it would trade sideways around 2450 over the weekend and then drop on Monday to fill this gap. Last night’s pump was clearly setting up for a dump, so I immediately opened a short. It smoothly cascaded to around 2380, the pattern support, overnight. I just went long again at the low, leaving room to add to my Bitcoin position. Bitcoin’s strong support is around 75600, while 76000–76500 is also support. Before the September interest-rate meeting, it will most likely trade sideways at high levels, and a major one-way move is unlikely. The sideways movement will last at least half a month.

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牛气爆棚

2026-09-12

🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀

LIUUR

2026-09-12

gogogogogogogogogogo

MoneyIsComing.

2026-09-12

I think this drop is completely normal. Setting the news aside, let me talk about the technicals: Ethereum’s parallel ascending channel has a trend-support gap at 2380. As I said, it would range around 2450 over the weekend and then drop on Monday to fill this gap. Last night’s pump clearly looked like it was setting up for a dump, so I immediately shorted. It smoothly cascaded down to around 2380, the pattern support, overnight. I just went long again at the lowest point, leaving room to add to my BTC position. BTC has strong support around 75600, with 76000–76500 also acting as support. Before the September rate meeting, it will most likely range at high levels, and a major one-sided move is unlikely. The range will probably last at least half a month.

00View Original

WealthSuccessorM

2026-09-12

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that August CPI rose 3.4% year-on-year, in line with expectations, while it rose 0.4% month-on-month, also matching expectations. However, core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% month-on-month, above the market estimate of 0.2%. This slight deviation changed the direction of interest-rate market pricing. According to Gate event market data, after the CPI data was released, market pricing for a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in September surged to 79%, while the probability of rates remaining unchanged in September fell sharply to 20%; there was even a 1% probability priced in for a 50-basis-point rate hike. The rise in rate-hike expectations theoretically puts pressure on crypto assets.

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LiteBull

2026-09-12

Go Go Go Go Go Go Go Go Go Go Go Go Go Go Go Go Go Go Go Go Go

00View Original

SolanaDiva

2026-09-11

great insight Lets analysis Eth and sol for next step

YaoQianshuA

2026-09-11

Why don’t you choose for yourself? Let this unfilial son choose for himself. Your Highness will then bear the infamy of breaking faith and betraying your word.

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BcryptexBTC

2026-09-11

Core CPI key
Fed watching that
volatility tonight

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