Holy shit, 40x leverage, liquidation price at 68821, with only 10.8% left from the current price.

This guy is seriously willing to gamble. An address starting with 0x85e opened a 73.5-BTC long position on Hyperliquid, worth $5.65 million, with an average entry price of 77503 and 40x leverage. BTC is currently quoted at 77124, so the position is already sitting on unrealized losses.

But instead of closing out, he launched a $15.46 million TWAP buy order, planning to slowly accumulate 200.5 BTC over 48.5 hours. It’s only 5% complete so far, with 95% still left to buy.

This isn’t a new position. He’s continuing to add to an existing 40x highly leveraged position.

What’s TWAP? It stands for time-weighted average price order. Put simply, instead of buying everything at once, it spreads the purchases out over time to avoid market impact and keep the market from noticing that he’s accumulating.

The problem is that his current position is already in serious danger, with the liquidation price at 68821. If BTC drops just 10%, that $5.65 million position will be wiped out.

What’s even more brutal is that if BTC pulls back 5% over the next two days, this TWAP order will expose him to a double hit.

On one hand, the unrealized loss on his existing 73.5-BTC long will grow, bringing him one step closer to liquidation. On the other hand, the unfilled portion of the TWAP will continue buying at increasingly higher average prices, essentially continuing to average down an already losing position. But if the direction is wrong, averaging down only amplifies the losses. With 40x leverage, there’s no room for error. The slightest disturbance could trigger a liquidation.

Since May, this kind of 40x leveraged BTC long by whales has appeared frequently on Hyperliquid, with position sizes ranging from several million to tens of millions of dollars.

These people are genuinely rich, and they’re genuinely willing to gamble. Their repeated use of TWAP to build positions in batches shows that these aren’t impulsive trades, but planned strategies. But a plan is a plan, and the market is the market.

You can control the pace of your buying, but you can’t control the price of BTC.

This address’s strategy looks a lot like a gambler doubling down at the table. He already bet 40x on the first hand, realized the cards were unfavorable, and instead of walking away, placed an even bigger bet to try to lower his average entry price and make it all back on a rebound. In traditional trading, this is called the Martingale strategy. In crypto, it’s called suicide.

Because of cryptocurrency’s volatility, a 10% drop can happen within a single wick, especially on weekends when liquidity is thin. One large red candle could sweep straight through your liquidation price.

And Hyperliquid is an on-chain perpetual futures platform. Its liquidation mechanism is automatic. There’s no broker calling you to ask for more margin, and no buffer where you can say, “Wait, let me raise the money.”

The moment the price reaches 68821, the smart contract executes automatically, and $5.65 million vanishes instantly. Everything you put in before, along with what you buy through the TWAP afterward, all becomes someone else’s profit.

If this guy bets correctly and BTC continues rising over the next two days, the story flips completely. The TWAP executes smoothly, the position’s average price gets lowered, unrealized losses turn into unrealized gains, and with 40x leverage, profits can multiply just as astonishingly fast.

But the problem is that he’s dancing on a tightrope, with an abyss beneath him and a cup of hot coffee in his hand.

On-chain data is transparent, and everyone can see his liquidation price. Is anyone in the market watching that level and shorting around it? Definitely. The whales on Hyperliquid can see each other’s cards. You know my liquidation price, and I know your liquidation point. This is no longer investing—it’s game theory.

Someone may deliberately sell just above his liquidation price, force his liquidation, and then scoop up the discounted coins.