#我的七夕交易分享 Gold Price Forecast for Next Week

Fundamental Analysis
1. Deputy Foreign Minister Lang said on social platform X: “The Strait of Hormuz belonged to Iran in the past, belongs to Iran now, and will still belong to Iran in the future; the strait can only be closed and opened under Iran’s orders.” He also said that the Strait of Hormuz “cannot be seized through a tweet, an aircraft carrier, an order, or a campaign speech.”
Trump previously claimed that after the United States defeated Iran, “I will soon announce that the Strait of Hormuz is U.S. territory.” Trump has consistently cited the phrase “to the victor belong the spoils.” He had also proposed that the United States could impose transit fees on the strait after the conflict ended, but later abandoned the idea. U.S.-Iran negotiations have not resumed, and mutual trust remains fragile.
2. Meanwhile, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Centre said Saturday that it had received a verified report stating that a bulk carrier was “hit by an unknown projectile, which struck the hull.” UKMTO is an organization supported by the British Navy and has long been responsible for monitoring maritime security risks in the region.
Since the temporary ceasefire broke down in June, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has been attacked multiple times by projectiles launched by Iran; in response, the United States also launched strikes on Iranian targets and participated in the blockade of Iranian ports. As maritime attacks and political confrontation escalate in tandem, the market will remain highly alert to the safety of transit through this key waterway and the stability of energy transportation.
3. The key factor determining whether gold prices can make a clear move higher is a new catalyst, and economic data alone may not be enough. What could truly drive gold demand may be a sudden escalation in geopolitics or some kind of “momentum event.” Economic data is currently neither particularly good nor particularly bad, inflation remains relatively sticky, and food prices are slightly higher, but commodities overall are not abnormally elevated. The market lacks a strong enough driver to push gold prices to new highs.

Technical Analysis
1. Technically, gold may be forming a head-and-shoulders top pattern that has been developing for several months. If gold cannot set a new high from its current level of 4500, it could even fall back toward $3,950 later.
Although gold has risen over the past two weeks, there is still no sign that a larger-scale uptrend is restarting. Energy currently dominates the market narrative, and energy prices are range-bound; the same is true of the metals market, so there remains a risk of a pullback next week.

2. There is considerable room for profit-taking this week. Gold may not continue to surge in the short term, but market confidence in support below $4,000 is strengthening; if gold can hold above $4,300, its short-term performance will be quite solid, while seasonal factors usually do not provide more obvious support for gold prices until November.
3. To resume its upward move, gold needs to break through the key 4440-4450 level, after which it will test 4500, a level gold has failed to rise above since the first week of June.
Although considerable profit-taking occurred this week, buying returned before the weekend, indicating that the earlier profit-taking was only short-term in nature.
4. If there is no new progress between the U.S. and Iran next week, gold will fluctuate, with pullback buying as the main strategy; on a decline, buy at 4327, 4315 (13), 4301, 4290, and 4261.
If negotiations between the U.S. and Iran go smoothly next week and news of another ceasefire emerges, chase the rise. If relations between the U.S. and Iran suddenly worsen next week, with oil prices rebounding and moving higher again, chase the decline.

This analysis is for readers’ reference only! $XAUUSD