CPI data will be released tonight, and the market seems to have hit the pause button, remaining range-bound.


Previous: 3.5%; expected: 3.4%. This CPI report will have a significant impact on expectations for the Fed’s September policy. The market currently prices in roughly a 50% chance of a September rate hike. If the data meets or falls below expectations, especially if core month-over-month inflation is softer, rate-hike bets could decline further. If it exceeds expectations, it could reignite hawkish discussions.
Gold is also nearing the end of its rebound. I’m preparing to short at 4500.
GLDX-0.65%
PAXG-0.20%
XAU-0.16%
View Original
post-image
This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
7298 views
  • Reward
  • 3
  • 1
  • Share
Comment
Add a comment
Add a comment
GoldenCrossHunter
· 08-15 04:26
Previous: 3.5, forecast: 3.4. If core month-on-month data comes in soft, rate hike expectations will cool off immediately, and gold could make another push higher; but if it exceeds expectations, a hawkish turn would make your 4,500 short position quite comfortable. Still, after such a long consolidation, the direction really isn’t easy to guess, so it’s better to try with a small position and avoid going all in.
Reply0
GoldBikini
· 08-12 08:49
As long as the data doesn’t blow out, the odds of a September rate hike should keep falling, and gold prices can hold up for a while longer. Don’t rush to call a top at 4,500—let’s see how tonight plays out.
Reply0
OnchainCop
· 08-12 08:49
Just waiting for CPI to prove me wrong—my 4,500 gold short will probably get stopped out again.
Reply0
  • Pinned