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CPI data will be released tonight, and the market seems to have hit the pause button, remaining range-bound.
Previous: 3.5%; expected: 3.4%. This CPI report will have a significant impact on expectations for the Fed’s September policy. The market currently prices in roughly a 50% chance of a September rate hike. If the data meets or falls below expectations, especially if core month-over-month inflation is softer, rate-hike bets could decline further. If it exceeds expectations, it could reignite hawkish discussions.
Gold is also nearing the end of its rebound. I’m preparing to short at 4500.