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Gold Extends Weekly Decline as Hawkish Fed and Easing Geopolitical Risks Weigh on Sentiment

Gold prices are continuing to drop this week, with the metal trading around $4,139 after hitting a low of $4,121. While a slight dip in the US Dollar has slowed the decline, gold is still on track for its third straight weekly loss. This downward trend is mainly driven by a shifting outlook on Federal Reserve policy and a decrease in global political tensions.

Market sentiment has changed recently. The peace agreement between the US and Iran has reduced the need for gold as a safe-haven asset. At the same time, the Federal Reserve has signaled that interest rates might stay high for a longer period. Many traders are now betting on another rate hike later this year because inflation remains a concern.

The inflation situation is complicated by rising oil prices, with US consumer inflation reaching 4.2% in May. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has made it clear that the central bank wants to bring inflation down to its 2% target. Since higher interest rates make non-yielding assets like gold less attractive compared to fixed-income investments, investors are looking elsewhere.

Demand for physical gold is also facing challenges. India recently raised its import duties on gold, which has led to a significant drop in imports in one of the world's biggest markets for jewelry. However, central banks are still buying gold, which provides some long-term support for the price.

Geopolitical risks have also calmed down. The 60-day memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran has boosted market confidence, and reports of a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah have further reduced the demand for gold as a hedge against instability.

Looking at the daily charts, sellers are still in control. Gold is stuck in a pattern of lower highs and lower lows. After failing to break past the $5,500 resistance level earlier this year, the price has remained weak.

Right now, gold is testing a major support level at $4,155. While buyers have managed to hold this line so far, the recovery looks weak. If the price closes below $4,155 on a daily basis, it could drop further toward the next support level at $3,881. If the selling speeds up, the price might even fall toward the $3,500 to $3,250 range.

For the trend to turn positive, gold needs to break through resistance between $4,399 and $4,450. Moving above that area could push the price toward $4,759 or $4,867. The biggest hurdle remains the supply zone between $5,470 and $5,616.

Overall, technical indicators show that downward pressure is still stronger than buying interest. While small rallies might happen, the general trend stays negative as long as gold remains below these key resistance levels.

Key Levels

Support: $4,155, $3,881, $3,500, $3,251

Resistance: $4,399, $4,450, $4,759, $4,867, $5,470, $5,616

Outlook

Gold is in an unstable situation as it sits near critical support. If it stays above $4,155, we might see a short-term bounce. However, a break below that level would likely lead to more losses toward $3,881. Until the price gets back above $4,450, the daily trend points downward.

$XAUT