Gold Prices Under the Shadow of Geopolitical Sentiment, Here's the Forward Projection

Gold prices are expected to fluctuate due to geopolitical sentiment. Quoting Trading Economics, Thursday (9/4/2026) at 5:15 PM WIB, global gold prices are at US$ 4,724 per troy ounce, up 9.35% year-to-date (ytd). However, they have corrected by 8.97% weekly.

Tiffani Safinia, Research & Development ICDX, said that gold prices corrected due to profit-taking actions after a two-day rally. Additional pressure came from the renewed increase in geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, following statements by Iran's Parliament Speaker, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, mentioning violations of the ceasefire agreement by the US and its allies. This came after Israel attacked Lebanon.

“This tension has again triggered market concerns about the sustainability of peace negotiations, as well as increasing the risk of conflict escalation that could impact global stability,” Tiffani told Kontan, Thursday (9/4/2026).

Commodity analyst Ibrahim Assuaibi said that Israel's attack on Lebanon has caused the latest tension in the Middle East region. This is expected to make gold prices fluctuate.

On one side, the opening of the Strait of Hormuz is predicted to take quite some time to restore transportation flows to normal. The levies imposed for crossing the Strait of Hormuz also have the potential to increase transportation costs for crude oil.

“Short-term, gold prices are still volatile, but entering the second quarter of 2026, gold prices are likely to stabilize,” Ibrahim said.

Furthermore, Ibrahim stated that the factors driving gold prices up are not only geopolitical. There are several other factors, including the potential US trade war with the European Union, as the EU is not assisting the US in attacking Iran.

The US-China trade war also remains unresolved, with expected trade tensions between the US and China resuming in May. Additionally, the demand-supply factors for gold are relevant. Ibrahim sees that currently, global central banks are buying precious metals again as part of efforts to reduce exposure to the US dollar. “This will boost gold prices and cause a surge,” Ibrahim explained.

He also mentioned that the direction of US Federal Reserve policies is another key factor influencing gold prices, including the transition of the Fed Chair from Jerome Powell to Kevin Warsh.

Tiffani said that market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve are adjusting again, with the probability of a rate decrease by the end of 2026 now estimated to be less than 33%. This change in expectations occurs amid rising inflation risks due to energy price dynamics, despite previous easing.

Looking ahead, gold movements are expected to remain volatile, influenced by developments in the Middle East conflict and global monetary policy directions. Markets will monitor US inflation data such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), as well as FOMC minutes for further guidance on interest rate policies. Additionally, oil price movements and US dollar dynamics will be key factors in determining gold trends.

Regarding strategies related to gold, Tiffani said that in the short term, market players can monitor geopolitical developments and economic data releases such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), and Nonfarm Payrolls.

For medium and long-term, the gold trend is still supported by central bank demand and ongoing global uncertainty. Gold remains relevant as a hedging instrument, so gradual accumulation can be a viable option. Portfolio diversification also remains key to risk management.

Tiffani projects that global gold prices in the second quarter of 2026 will range between US$ 4,700 and US$ 5,100 per troy ounce, amid a combination of monetary easing expectations and still-fluctuating geopolitical risks. Meanwhile, Ibrahim projects precious metal prices to range from Rp 2,830,000 to Rp 3,200,000 per gram.
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