Is the Crypto Market Really Running Out of Money? Who Will Decide the Next Bull Run?

The crypto market has continued to decline recently, and many investors have begun to think that no new money is entering the market. But I think a more accurate way to put it is that the market is going through a period of shrinking liquidity, capital sitting on the sidelines, and asset repricing.

To assess the next bull run, we need to focus on three sources of capital.

First, global liquidity. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy, the U.S. Dollar Index, and monetary conditions in the world’s major economies determine the overall cost of capital. When interest rates remain high and liquidity is tight, risk assets tend to face greater pressure. Conversely, if expectations of future rate cuts strengthen and financial conditions gradually ease, the crypto market may be among the first to react.

Second, stablecoin supply. USDT and USDC are important means of exchange and reserves of capital in the crypto market. Changes in the total stablecoin supply can help us gauge whether the market’s capital base is expanding. But it’s important to note that growth in stablecoin supply doesn’t mean the funds will immediately be used to buy Bitcoin.

Third, institutional capital. Bitcoin spot ETFs, public companies’ holdings, and the allocation decisions of professional investment firms are shaping the structure of capital in the crypto market. Sustained institutional inflows can bring in capital and may also strengthen long-term market confidence.

Therefore, I don’t think the crypto market is truly out of money; rather, capital is choosing new directions. The next bull run may require three conditions to come together: improved global liquidity, renewed growth in stablecoin supply, and a sustained return of institutional capital.

What really matters isn’t short-term trading volume, but whether new capital is beginning to form a sustained trend.

What do you think will be the first sign of the next bull run: Fed rate cuts, growth in stablecoin supply, or institutions resuming large-scale Bitcoin purchases?