What does the Fed’s delay in cutting rates mean for Bitcoin, gold, and U.S. stocks?

Recently, expectations for the Fed’s monetary policy have once again become an important factor affecting global asset prices. Many investors are waiting for rate cuts, but what really matters is not when the Fed will cut rates, but why it has yet to do so.

If U.S. inflation remains above target or the labor market remains strong, the Fed may choose to keep interest rates elevated. High interest rates affect different assets through funding costs, liquidity, and investor risk appetite.

First, U.S. stocks. Rates remaining high mean higher corporate borrowing costs and a lower discounted value for future profits. High-valuation technology growth stocks are particularly vulnerable.

Next is Bitcoin. Although Bitcoin has a unique supply mechanism, it is increasingly affected by global liquidity as institutional participation grows. When funding costs rise and risk appetite declines, Bitcoin typically faces greater selling pressure.

Finally, gold. Gold does not generate interest, so high real interest rates usually increase the opportunity cost of holding it. However, if markets begin to worry about an economic recession, financial risks, or geopolitical conflicts, gold may gain support from safe-haven demand.

This means the three assets will not simply move in the same direction. What will really determine their future performance is inflation, real interest rates, the dollar’s trajectory, and global capital flows.

Investors should not bet solely on a single rate cut, but should build an asset allocation framework that can withstand different macroeconomic environments.

Do you think rate-cut expectations in the next phase will catalyze a market rebound, or does the market still need to go through a longer period of adjustment?