The gold market has been on fire recently. Global gold ETFs have maintained net inflows for six consecutive weeks, with nearly $3 billion flowing in last week alone. This year, the total inflow has reached $82 billion, and holdings have hit a record high of 3,965 tons. It seems that risk aversion sentiment is quite strong, with many investors treating gold as a safe haven.

But there are warning signs behind these numbers. The gold price is only 1% below its all-time high, and the annual increase has already reached 65%. Such a rally can easily attract momentum-driven capital. The problem is that when a large number of retail investors rush in with the idea of "hedging," the early holders face increasing pressure to cash out. From a market game theory perspective, when an asset shifts from a safe haven to a speculative hotspot, risks tend to quietly accumulate at the peak.

Be cautious about chasing highs, especially when the position is so sensitive. Instead of blindly following the trend, it’s better to calmly observe market supply and demand changes and capital flows, ensuring that your risk tolerance and investment logic are solid enough.