Recently, I decided to launch an in-depth market analysis series aimed at revealing the truth behind some so-called trading strategies. This idea stemmed from observing many self-proclaimed trading experts promoting their indicators and strategies online, claiming to have astonishing win rates, which often misleads newbie investors.

What caught my attention was a recent news article predicting that the Bitcoin weekly MACD death cross would lead to a price correction. At that time, around August 25, the price of Bitcoin was about 110,000. However, the price has now risen to around 115,000, and the expected significant drop has not occurred. This prompted me to think: how much reference value does the MACD indicator truly have? Today, we will objectively evaluate the actual effect of this indicator through big data analysis.

The internet is flooded with a large number of videos about the MACD indicator, with titles often exaggerating, such as "Master MACD, Profit Easily", "Follow MACD Parameters for Stable Profits", etc. These statements often oversimplify the complex market mechanisms.

First, let's briefly understand the MACD indicator. MACD stands for Moving Average Convergence Divergence, proposed by Gerald Appel in the 1970s. It is a trend-based technical indicator used to assess the strength of price momentum, trend direction, and potential reversal signals.

MACD consists of several key components: the fast line DIF (DIF = 12-day EMA - 26-day EMA), the slow line DEA (DEA = 9-day EMA of DIF), and the histogram (MACD = 2×(DIF - DEA)). In the chart, the blue line typically represents DIF.

However, relying solely on a single technical indicator to predict market trends is not enough. The market is influenced by various factors, including the macroeconomic environment, policy changes, investor sentiment, and so on. While MACD can provide some trend information, it should not be regarded as a万能工具 for predicting the market.

Investors should consider a variety of analytical methods, including fundamental analysis, technical analysis, and risk management strategies. At the same time, continuous learning and maintaining an objective attitude are crucial for achieving success in a complex and changing market.

In summary, while technical indicators such as MACD can provide reference for investment decisions, they should not be overly relied upon. True investment wisdom lies in a comprehensive understanding of the market, rather than blindly following a single indicator or strategy.