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#打榜优质内容#
Non-farm payrolls are down, the Federal Reserve is smiling? The market is panicking!
The August non-farm payroll data is simply a "dove-releasing artifact"—the expectation was 200,000, but it only came in at 120,000, not even qualifying as a "half measure." The market's first reaction: employment is cooling, and the Federal Reserve can finally go ahead and cut interest rates! However, smart friends should note that such lower-than-expected data not only caused the dollar to turn around, but also made gold and Bitcoin sing in unison "I’m going up, I’m going up."
The issue is that the non-farm data itself is like an American coffee diluted with water—limited in its refreshing effect and strange in taste. The unemployment rate remains stubbornly high, indicating that the job market isn't completely dead, but corporate hiring has started to slow down, and inflation and wage pressures may ease. In other words, the Federal Reserve now has another reason to pretend to be a "dove," but market players should not assume that interest rate cuts are imminent; old Powell has plenty of reasons to keep dragging it out.
In summary: August's non-farm payrolls are like a failing report card; the teacher might say, "It's okay, there are plenty more tests to come." But market investors can't wait and have already started the celebration in advance.
Do you think this is rational or just self-indulgence? Everyone has their own answer in their hearts.