Monetary Policy

Gate News, on March 24, according to CME "FedWatch" data, on March 25, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising rates by 25 basis points in April is 8.3%, and the probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged is 91.7%.

European Central Bank Executive Board member Cipollone pointed out that stablecoins and tokenized deposits need to be anchored on tokenized central bank money for settlement to achieve scalability in tokenized financial markets. The DLT settlement project Pontes, expected to launch in 2026, and the Appia plan before 2028 will advance the construction of Europe's tokenized finance ecosystem. He warned of the risks of lacking a unified legal framework.

_The White House is reviewing two SEC proposals on digital assets and hedge fund disclosures, sent March 20 by Chairman Paul Atkins. Major regulatory shifts ahead._ The Securities and Exchange Commission has sent two proposed rules to the White House for review. One targets digital assets. The

# Woke up, and BTC pulled back to 70k. On the drive this morning, the radio was reporting that gold came under pressure as the Fed's March FOMC meeting failed to meet rate cut expectations, erasing all gains for the year so far. Recently, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have escalated, causing global capital markets to shake. According to classical narratives in traditional finance, geopolitical conflicts should push up gold prices—a logic rooted in gold's thousands of years of safe-haven attributes, long since becoming the instinctive reaction of market participants. Yet the market performance in March 2026 has shattered this stereotype: gold prices continued to decline, breaking through the critical support level of $4,500, while Bitcoin's decline was far smaller than traditional risk assets like stocks, displaying a certain characteristic of "relative safe-haven." This anomalous divergence, on the surface is a difference in asset price movements, but at a deeper level reflects a structural change long overlooked by the market: the investor base for gold and Bitcoin is undergoing a fundamental shift

Tokenized deposits and stablecoins need tokenized central bank money as a public settlement anchor if Europe’s tokenized financial markets are to scale, Piero Cipollone, a member of the European Central Bank’s Executive Board, said on Monday. Cipollone pointed to Pontes, the Eurosystem’s

ECB's Piero Cipollone stated that the EU's tokenization market needs to meet three conditions: developing a digital euro to stabilize transactions, collaborating with enterprises to ensure market demand, and coordinating legal regulations to address cross-border obstacles. Once implemented, it is expected to accelerate market growth and drive financial innovation and capital integration.

The latest draft of the CLARITY Act, being advanced by the U.S. Senate, prohibits stablecoin service platforms from offering yield to holders, which could impact the business models of stablecoins. While the draft allows certain rewards unrelated to account balances, the vague "economic equivalence" provision has sparked market concerns. The act is expected to enter the review stage in April and will have far-reaching implications for the crypto industry.

Circle recently submitted feedback on the EU's capital markets integration plan, arguing that reform progress is slow. The company recommends introducing adaptive threshold mechanisms, clarifying the pathway for pilot programs to become permanent rules, and allowing crypto service providers to offer settlement accounts to promote market liquidity and competitiveness. Circle is also focused on stablecoin applications in securities settlement and is calling for reduced regulatory scope to lower compliance costs and prevent capital outflows.

Crypto investment products maintained their inflow streak last week but momentum slowed amid ongoing Middle East tensions and a “hawkish pause” interpretation of the US Fed’s meeting. Crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs) recorded $230 million in inflows last week, with $405 million in outflows

After Trump announced a temporary easing of tensions with Iran, Bitcoin rose 4% in the short term, WTI crude oil prices fell 14%, and the S&P 500 index gained 3%. The futures market shows Bitcoin's annualized premium is below the normal range, options market prices the probability of Bitcoin reaching $80,000 at 20%, and the market lacks confidence in the $68,000 support level.

Bitcoin hovers around $68,000 amid significant U.S. economic data expected to influence interest rate expectations and market risk appetite. Key indicators like PMI and unemployment claims could signal economic health, impacting Bitcoin's performance based on potential Fed policy adjustments.

Citigroup has lowered its 12-month price targets for Bitcoin and Ethereum, signaling a shift toward caution on the cryptocurrency market's medium-term outlook, primarily due to slow progress in U.S. crypto asset legislation. Bitcoin's target was reduced from $143,000 to $112,000, while Ethereum's fell to $3,175. Despite upside potential remaining in the future, the lack of new policy catalysts suggests prices may oscillate within a range in the near term. Citigroup's assessment of Ethereum is more cautious, as it believes the asset is more significantly impacted by on-chain activity.

Goldman Sachs expects the probability of a U.S. recession to rise to 30% due to soaring oil and gas prices. The Middle East conflict and tax law effects are impacting the economy, with the unemployment rate forecast increased to 4.6%. GDP growth is projected to be below trend in the second half of this year, oil price forecasts have been raised, and the conflict may drive up global inflation and influence GDP growth.

Gate News reported that on March 24, according to CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising rates by 25 basis points in April is 7.2%, with a 92.8% probability of maintaining the current rate. The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively raising rates by 25 basis points through June is 9.1%, with a 0.2% probability of cumulatively raising rates by 50 basis points, and a 90.7% probability of maintaining the current rate.

Circle submitted feedback to the European Union regarding the "Market Integration Plan," urging the acceleration of digital asset regulatory reforms. While supporting the modernization of capital markets, Circle highlighted that the existing mechanisms impose limitations on liquidity and institutional participation, and recommended implementing dynamic threshold mechanisms along with clarifying the regulatory transition pathway.

Brazil has postponed its crypto tax consultation to 2027 due to election pressures, despite implementing a 17.5% capital gains tax and classifying stablecoins as foreign exchange. Crypto adoption remains robust, with significant inflows and growth.

Gate News reported that on March 23rd, Federal Reserve Governor Barr stated that rate hikes may be necessary if second-round inflation effects and wage increases occur. However, he also pointed out that he does not currently believe it is necessary to consider rate hikes.