Geopolitics

The article analyzes the relationship between Binance's BTC balance changes and market demand, indicating that the decrease in BTC balances in the short term is related to genuine demand, especially during the US-Iran conflict. The widening gap in spot trading volume suggests active buying activity, supporting the presence of real demand. Although short-term demand may stabilize BTC prices, the long-term trend still leans downward, and the process of demand recovery could be lengthy.

Germany's long-term Bitcoin holding tax-exemption policy, which has been in effect since 2009 through 2026, encourages investors to hold for over one year to avoid capital gains tax. This policy reduces the tax burden and attracts global investors to build Bitcoin investment portfolios in Germany, driving market attention.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has lowered its oil supply growth forecast for 2026, expecting supply growth of only 1.1 million barrels per day in 2023. Due to Middle East conflict reducing Gulf oil-producing nations' output, March oil supply is projected to fall to 98.8 million barrels per day, the lowest since 2022.

US-Iran conflict escalates, tensions may persist through May, oil prices break $95, global markets face risks. Bitcoin under short-term pressure, investor risk-aversion sentiment rises, focus on geopolitical risks and asset allocation strategies.

On March 12, PolyBeats detected two high-win-rate addresses betting on prediction markets that "the US and Iran will not cease fire before May," with a combined investment of $15,000 at a current price of 52.5¢. Meanwhile, Iran escalated attacks on Gulf shipping, causing a halt to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with analysts seeing no signs of de-escalation.

Nvidia plans to invest $26 billion over the next five years to build open-weight AI models to counter the lead of Chinese open-source models. Its latest model, Nemotron 3 Super, features 128 billion parameters and comprehensive scores surpassing OpenAI, but still fall short of certain Chinese models. Analysts believe the U.S. government should support open-source projects.

Iran warns that if the US and Israel continue military actions, oil prices could soar to $200, potentially intensifying inflation and affecting the Bitcoin market. Although Bitcoin has recently rebounded, geopolitical conflicts have caused its performance to remain unstable, and analysts indicate that there may be significant fluctuations in the future, so investors should stay alert to potential risks.

Trump announces that the U.S. military has achieved victory in the military operation against Iran, improving risk sentiment in the financial markets, and cryptocurrencies rebound. Bitcoin rises over 5% to re-enter the $70,000 level, with Ethereum and other digital currencies also recovering. Currently, the market is focused on the stability of the Middle East situation and international oil prices, which have a significant impact on Bitcoin's future trend.

As the 2026 U.S. midterm elections approach, the market is paying attention to their impact on Bitcoin's price movement. Historical data shows that midterm election years are usually accompanied by market weakness, with Bitcoin experiencing an average decline of 56%. However, the market tends to recover significantly after the elections, with both the S&P 500 and Bitcoin rebounding. Analysts believe that the second half of 2026 could become a key milestone for the Bitcoin market, but caution is advised regarding new impacts brought by changes in market structure.

Gate News Report, March 12 — According to Xinhua News Agency, Minister of Justice He Rong stated that this year, efforts will be made to accelerate the legislative research in fields such as artificial intelligence.

A security incident occurred on the Bonk.fun platform, where an attacker gained control of the domain and injected malicious content, resulting in some users' funds being stolen. The team has issued a warning, suspended operations, and taken measures to restore security. The attack mainly affected users who signed false agreements. As cyberattack techniques advance, the encryption industry faces greater risks.

A certain cryptocurrency trading platform is accused of lobbying U.S. legislators to oppose the Bitcoin small-transaction tax exemption, suggesting it should be limited to stablecoins. This move has raised concerns within the crypto community, which believes that the policy could be influenced by special interests and hinder innovation. The Bitcoin advocacy organization warns that this approach would be a strategic mistake.

The latest US CPI data released aligns with market expectations, but due to the impact of the Middle East situation, market reactions are muted. The US stock indices fluctuate, and BTC prices hover around $70,000. Although it appears stable in the short term, market sentiment remains pessimistic, and whether the price can stay above $70,000 in the future remains uncertain, mainly depending on the development of the Middle East situation. Meanwhile, Binance's net flow data shows that investors withdraw BTC during market downturns, but selling pressure still exists.

Solana meme coin platform BONK.fun was hacked, with internal team accounts compromised, leading to the deployment of a wallet theft program. Users are advised to stop interacting immediately. This incident highlights the platform's security vulnerabilities and may accelerate user attrition, with market share dropping from 84% to 7%. Future security measures need to be strengthened to prevent similar attacks.

The Middle East geopolitical conflicts have intensified, leading to challenges in the international energy market. Oman has evacuated oil tankers to ensure safety, causing oil prices to surge to $100 per barrel. Asian stock markets generally declined, and Bitcoin also retreated to $69,550. Although the IEA released oil reserves, it is difficult to fundamentally resolve the supply gap issue.

JPMorgan economists have pointed out that persistently high oil prices could prompt some Asian central banks to adopt hawkish policies, especially Singapore and Malaysia, while the likelihood of Indonesia and the Philippines cutting interest rates decreases. Fiscal policy will become the first line of defense against trade shocks, and the Bank of Korea's decision to raise interest rates will depend on the impact of oil prices on inflation.

SEC Chairman Paul Atkins stated in a podcast that distributed ledger technology can enable T+0 settlement and improve the efficiency of financial services, but caution is needed regarding fraud risks. He mentioned liquidity and the applicability challenges in traditional markets, emphasized that tokenized securities must comply with federal securities laws, and pointed out that the SEC is coordinating regulatory responsibilities with the CFTC.

Patrick Witt, Executive Director of the U.S. President's Digital Asset Advisory Committee, stated that stablecoins compliant with the GENIUS Act will bring deposit inflows to the U.S. banking system, rather than outflows as warned by the banking industry. He mentioned the huge global demand for the US dollar and the provision in the bill that prohibits stablecoin issuers from engaging in bank-like lending.

Trump's digital asset advisory team pointed out that stablecoins regulated under the GENIUS Act are expected to bring new capital inflows to the U.S. banking system, but the banking industry remains cautious about their potential deposit-raising schemes. Although the crypto industry believes regulation should focus on the use of funds, the yield mechanism of stablecoins remains a legislative point of contention. The White House is seeking to establish a new consensus on stablecoin policies.

Ghana Securities and Exchange Commission approves 11 crypto companies to join the regulatory sandbox, promoting the digital asset regulatory framework. Companies must comply with anti-money laundering and other regulations. The pilot period is 12 months, and compliant companies can apply for official licenses. This move will enhance market transparency, attract international companies, and accelerate the development of Africa's crypto market.