Geopolitics

Gate News reported that on March 24, Saudi Arabia announced a 30-day license exemption for ships in the Persian Gulf region.

QCP Group points out that Trump's ultimatum to Iran failed to materialize, and the market stabilized briefly. Despite BTC breaking below 70,000, its resilience has strengthened. With U.S. national debt exceeding 3.9 trillion, stagflation concerns intensify, and central banks face policy dilemmas. Iran proposed settling transit fees in yuan, and the market should monitor shifts in BTC.

Gate News: On March 24, Israeli officials stated that Iran is unlikely to agree to the relevant demands proposed by the United States, but US President Trump appears determined to reach a deal with Iran.

The article analyzes the recent performance of gold, bonds, and Bitcoin in current financial markets and the reasons behind it. Recently, rising bond yields, falling gold prices, and rising Bitcoin have demonstrated the market's reaction to uncertainty. Particularly in the Iran conflict, a liquidity crisis led to gold selloffs, while Bitcoin, as a non-sovereign asset, has gained favor. Looking ahead, oil prices are expected to continue rising, putting pressure on bonds and gold, with Bitcoin outperforming other assets. Financial markets will be significantly influenced by geopolitical factors.

On March 24, Trump stated that the US and Iran are engaged in peace negotiations, but conflicts continue. Iran attacked Israel and US military bases, while the US and Saudi Arabia strengthened their defenses; US and Israeli counterattacks resulted in damage to Iranian facilities.

Gate News: On March 24, Macquarie released a crude oil price forecast report stating that if Iran tensions ease, Brent crude oil prices could touch a bottom of $85 to $90 per barrel. If the Strait of Hormuz (a globally important oil transportation channel that carries approximately 20% of global oil shipments) remains closed through April, crude oil prices could still rise to $150 per barrel.

Gate News reported that on March 24, analysts from Saxo Bank stated that the ongoing Middle East conflict continues to trigger widespread macroeconomic impacts on global markets, forcing investors to simultaneously reassess inflation, interest rates, economic growth, and liquidity conditions. Gold is being sold off as it is one of the few liquid assets that has remained on an upward trend over the past year. Gold is under pressure from concerns that elevated energy prices will push up inflation and suppress expectations for further rate cuts in the near term.

Japan's 10-year government bond yield has risen to 2.32%, approaching the highest level since 1999, indicating stress in the financial system. Rising energy prices are intensifying inflation risks, and markets expect the central bank may raise interest rates. Japan holds $1.2 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds, and rising yields impact global capital costs, potentially triggering price volatility in risk assets. Investors should monitor the impact of changes in government bond yields and energy prices on the market.

Iran's new Supreme Leader military advisor Mohsen Rezaei reiterated ceasefire conditions in an interview, stating that Iran requires compensation, lifting of economic sanctions, and international legal guarantees before it can agree to a ceasefire. He emphasized that the dispute with the United States has lasted 47 years and needs to be thoroughly resolved.

The rise in US Treasury yields may influence the Trump administration's decision-making in conflict with Iran and indirectly impact Bitcoin's trajectory. Changes in key yields and swap spreads will determine market sentiment and policy adjustments, requiring investors to monitor macroeconomic risks.

BitMine Chairman Tom Lee believes Ethereum may be at the tail end of the cryptocurrency winter. The company has recently increased its ETH purchases, demonstrating strong safe-haven characteristics. He is optimistic about the passage of the Clarity Act, which he believes will help improve Ethereum's fundamentals. Ethereum is currently trading at $2,138, though geopolitical tensions remain a source of uncertainty.

Bitcoin (BTC) experienced significant volatility following Trump's threats against Iran's nuclear facilities, with market capitalization evaporating $6 billion before rebounding to $71,000. The event triggered market panic, forcing traders into liquidations and demonstrating cryptocurrency's heightened sensitivity to geopolitical risks. Bitcoin has declined 23% year-to-date, with markets closely monitoring the subsequent impact of Trump's statements.

Macquarie Bank's report indicates that achieving peace agreements in the Middle East still faces difficulties, with various parties' demands difficult to align. The United States is unlikely to abandon its demands on Iran, and the war is not expected to continue beyond mid-April, after which the United States will hold an advantage in negotiations.

Since the US-Israel conflict, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been significantly disrupted, with the number of commercial vessels passing through declining by 95%, with only 144 transits, primarily for oil and natural gas transport. Meanwhile, vessels have widely adopted the northern route approved by Iran.

The Bitcoin mining industry faces severe challenges, with mining costs surging to $88,000, while Bitcoin prices hover around $68,000, causing miners to face mounting losses. As geopolitical risks and high oil prices take their toll, hash rate continues to decline, and industry pressure is triggering market instability. Many mining companies are beginning to pivot toward AI and high-performance computing to ensure survival.

As the Iran war situation escalates, European stock markets open under pressure with indices broadly expected to decline. Brent crude oil futures rise more than 3%, while gold prices continue to fall. Markets are focused on upcoming economic data releases and geopolitical risks that may lead to cautious investor sentiment.

Japan's Liberal Democratic Party launches "Next-Generation AI and On-Chain Finance Vision Task Force," aimed at establishing an AI-based on-chain finance framework to promote financial innovation. The project will integrate digital financial services, develop regulatory reform proposals, and help Japan gain advantages in the global digital asset sector.

Spain arrests suspect in Ledger co-founder kidnapping case, Aave v4 receives nearly unanimous support to proceed with mainnet deployment, while Russia allows Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to enter the market, and multiple central banks will increase gold holdings to address geopolitical risks.

Middle East geopolitical tensions are intensifying, leading to asset divergence in global financial markets. Recently, gold prices have pulled back significantly, while Bitcoin has surged 7% against the trend, demonstrating its characteristics as an emerging safe-haven asset. The holding costs of gold have increased in a high interest rate environment, prompting investors to shift toward Bitcoin with greater liquidity, marking a shift in consensus around traditional safe-haven assets. Bitcoin has become an important tool for hedging risk and may redefine safe-haven assets.

The latest draft of the CLARITY Act, being advanced by the U.S. Senate, prohibits stablecoin service platforms from offering yield to holders, which could impact the business models of stablecoins. While the draft allows certain rewards unrelated to account balances, the vague "economic equivalence" provision has sparked market concerns. The act is expected to enter the review stage in April and will have far-reaching implications for the crypto industry.