DXY & Forex

According to trader Ansem, a hawkish FOMC stance may trigger widespread pressure on risk assets tomorrow, with Bitcoin showing relative weakness compared to most other assets. Ansem suggests that Bitcoin's failure to break above weekly resistance across multiple timeframes could lead to a retest

According to a Bank of Korea study released on June 18, the central bank found that foreign investment income retained overseas for reinvestment rather than repatriated to Korea has widened the gap between paper investment surpluses and actual forex inflows, explaining why the won has

In June, the Bank of Japan announced it would raise its policy rate to 1%, the first time Japan has reached that level since 1995. 137Labs analysis shows that over the past twenty-plus years, large amounts of international capital borrowed Japanese yen at nearly zero cost and allocated to risk assets such as U.S. technology stocks, emerging market bonds, commodities, and global real estate; this “Yen Carry Trade” structure is one of the key underlying logics driving global asset price increases.

According to Citigroup, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points each in October and December 2026, and January 2027. This represents a revision from Citigroup's previous forecast, which had predicted rate cuts in September, October, and December 2026.

According to Jin10, on June 18, multiple tenors of CNH HIBOR (offshore yuan Hong Kong interbank offered rates) rose, with the overnight rate increasing 2 basis points to 1.47242%, marking a new high since May 8. The one-week HIBOR climbed 10 basis points to 1.56818%, while the two-week HIBOR rose 8

According to Nomura economist Takahide Kiuchi, on June 18, Federal Reserve policy will likely become the primary driver of USD/JPY movements, with the pair holding above 160 despite recent Bank of Japan rate hikes. Kiuchi noted that the Fed's latest dot plot has not fully reflected the impact of

As of June 18, overnight SHIBOR rose 0.60 basis points to 1.4210%, while the 7-day rate declined 0.20 basis points to 1.4620%. The 3-month SHIBOR increased 0.10 basis points to 1.4300%.

In the early hours of June 18 Beijing time, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously 12-0 to keep the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%. This marks the Fed’s fourth consecutive decision to hold steady since it completed a run of three consecutive rate cuts in December 2025. The rate decision itself is consistent with market expectations—ahead of the meeting, the interest-rate futures market priced in a 99.6% probability o

According to Shanghai Clearing House and China Foreign Exchange Trade Center, the two institutions will launch an optimized foreign currency repo service on June 22, 2026. The upgrade includes the ability for trading counterparties to initiate collateral replacement for outstanding foreign currency

According to Jin10, Goldman Sachs vice chairman Kaplan said on June 18 that if inflation does not cool between now and September, the Federal Reserve could hike interest rates as early as September or fall, which would be a prudent approach. Kaplan noted that rate increases typically come in

According to the Federal Reserve's FOMC statement released today (June 18), the central bank kept interest rates unchanged as expected. Among the 18 FOMC participants, 9 expect rate hikes during 2026, signaling a shift toward potential monetary tightening later in the

Kevin Warsh hosted his first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on June 17, announcing that the federal funds rate would be kept unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75% and that five special working groups would be established. Warsh clearly stated that he would end forward guidance, a stance that signals a fundamental shift in the market expectations mechanism. The hawkish signals released by the June 17 meeting led to a drop in Bitcoin and the crypto market. Warsh’s Five Special Working Groups: R

Bitcoin (BTC) hit a weak decline, temporarily around $64,790 as of June 18. Strategy preferred stock STRC seriously de-pegged; the company claims, “Selling coins can pay 32 years of dividends,” attempting to stabilize the market. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) will sue the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), opposing its approval of crypto perpetual futures. Macro Events & Crypto Hotspots 1、Strategy (MicroStrategy) issued “Stretch” variable-rate perpetual preferred stock STR

According to Jin10, the People's Bank of China conducted 248 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today (June 18), with 188.5 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing the same day, resulting in a net injection of 59.5 billion yuan into the financial

Today (June 18), China's central bank conducted a 248 billion yuan seven-day reverse repo operation with a 100% subscription rate at 1.40%, unchanged from previous operations.

On June 18, the People's Bank of China published daily foreign exchange midpoint rates. USD/CNY rose to 6.8130, appreciating 34 points amid CNY weakness. EUR/CNY fell to 7.8174, down 602 points. JPY/CNY declined 10 points to 4.2336, while CHF/CNY dropped 578 points to 8.5038. CNY/RUB rose 342 points

According to SWIFT data, China's yuan accounted for 2.75% of global payments in May, down from 2.85% in the previous month.

Bitcoin fell to $64,608 on June 18, after the FOMC unanimously decided on Wednesday to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. However, the latest dot plot shows a major shift: nine officials are expected to raise rates at least once within the year (no officials supported a rate hike in March). The CME “FedWatch” tool shows the probability of a December rate hike rising to 78%. Waller said at the press conference that he did not submit his rate dot-plot forecast. Dramatic shift in

According to Jin10 Futures, as of 08:45 on June 18, the CFETS-NEX whole-market renminbi funding sentiment index stood at 52, up 2 points from 4:00 PM the previous day. The three-tier indices showed: large banks at 51 (up 2 points), mid-sized and small banks at 54 (up 3 points), and non-bank

According to Huatai Securities, the Federal Reserve maintained its policy rate at 3.5%-3.75% on June 18 morning (Beijing time), with the dot plot indicating a possible preventive rate hike in 2026. The research firm forecasts that the Fed will keep rates unchanged through September, with a