Commodities (Crude Oil & Copper) & Macro Outlook

According to Bank of America Chief Investment Strategist Michael Hartnett, the current market consensus—that the U.S. economy will avoid a hard landing, the Fed will not raise rates, AI capital spending will remain robust, and Democrats will underperform in midterm elections—represents rare

Trump posted on Truth Social on July 11 that the United States ceasefire with Iran is over and that 1,000 missiles are aimed at the Islamic Republic of Iran. The statement responded to what Trump described as an Iranian threat to assassinate the sitting U.S. president. The post followed a week of

Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) announced on the 12th (local time) that transit through the Strait of Hormuz is currently impossible. The authority cited recent illegal US military movements in the region as the reason for the closure, according to Iran's semi-official Tasnim News

According to U.S. Central Command, on July 12, the Strait of Hormuz remains open to all vessels exercising the right of transit through the international waterway. The U.S. military stated it is positioned and prepared to ensure freedom of navigation despite what it characterized as unlawful

According to Jin10, Iran's Revolutionary Guards announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in recent developments. In response, Oman has proposed a dual-corridor management system for the strategic waterway, with Iran's corridor requiring prior

According to NBC News, U.S. President Donald Trump stated on July 12 that the Strait of Hormuz is open.

According to Iran's Strait of Hormuz authority, the Hormuz Strait is currently impassable as of July 12, according to an official announcement via social media cited by state news agency. The authority stated that once the situation stabilizes, it will resume processing transit requests and issue ne

According to a maritime consultancy group, the southern corridor of the Strait of Hormuz remained open to shipping on Sunday, despite Iran's announcement of closure amid escalating mutual attacks with the United

According to Ukraine's General Staff, Ukrainian forces struck the Syzran refinery in Russia's Samara region early on July 12. Additionally, Ukrainian forces attacked 10 oil tankers and 4 ferries operated by Russia in the Azov

US President Donald Trump declared the end of a ceasefire with Iran on July 8 ahead of a NATO summit, one day after US forces struck Iran again. Bond and commodity markets reacted immediately: the US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.58%, rising 0.1 percentage points for the week, while Brent

On July 8, President Donald Trump declared the ceasefire with Iran had ended, and the U.S. Treasury Department withdrew its previous approval for Iranian oil sales, advancing the deadline from August 21 to July 17. The move followed a memorandum of understanding signed on June 17 that aimed to end a

According to China Central Television, Iran announced on July 11 that it closed the Strait of Hormuz again, prompting a sharp decline in commercial shipping traffic. Data tracked by shipping monitors showed that only 11 commercial vessels transited the strait in the past 24 hours, including 8

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will deliver his first congressional testimony since taking office, appearing before the House Financial Services Committee on July 14 at 10 AM and the Senate Banking Committee on July 15 at 10 AM for semi-annual monetary policy reports. Both testimonies will occur 90 minutes a

According to South Korea's Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries, the country's 13th tanker safely passed through the Red Sea on July 12 and is currently transporting Saudi Arabian crude oil back to South Korea. The ministry

According to the National Commodity Warehouse Receipt Registration Center (NCWR), China has launched Cangdeng Chain, a blockchain-based warehouse receipt platform in Shanghai, completing its first digital transactions involving non-ferrous metals including nickel and copper. Built on China's

Ukrainian military forces struck an oil refinery in Russia's Samara region, according to Ukrainian military statements. The facility's exact operational status following the strike was not immediately disclosed.

According to Iranian state media, the Kondab region in central Iran was struck on Sunday, local officials said.

According to Ian Ralby, senior researcher at the Center for Maritime Strategy and president of Auxilium Worldwide, the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict over the Strait of Hormuz cannot be resolved through military means and is driving up global fuel and food costs. Both sides have the willingness to

Seoul foreign exchange market participants will monitor the Bank of Korea monetary policy meeting and SK Hynix dollar supply this week from the 13th to 17th. Market expectations center on a base rate increase from 2.50% to 2.75% at the BOK meeting on the 16th, which would be the first hike in 3

According to The New York Times, a commercial vessel came under attack in the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, July 12, followed by U.S. strikes on Iranian targets. The incident has triggered concerns over renewed oil price volatility. Transit traffic through the strait has dropped sharply to 22 vessel