Commodities (Crude Oil & Copper) & Macro Outlook

According to CNBC, U.S. crude oil exports rose to 5.2 million barrels per day in April, up over 30% from 3.9 million barrels in February. The export volume reached its highest level since April 2016, according to data from

On May 4, Iran fired 15 missiles and 4 drones at the UAE. The UAE air defenses intercepted them, and the Fujairah oil zone caught fire. Iran also targeted a UAE-affiliated tanker and a South Korean merchant ship; neither sank, but both had engine-room fires. U.S. forces used Apache and SH-60 aircraft to sink 6 Iranian speedboats and intercepted drones. This was the first direct clash since the 4/8 ceasefire, as both sides compete over the narrative of Hormuz and control. Oil prices are fluctuating, and OPEC+’s response is under observation.

Middle East tensions escalated, pushing up oil prices, and US stocks pulled back from their recent highs; Bitcoin broke above $80k yesterday, topping out at $80,776. Open interest for Deribit’s $80k call options rose notably, indicating capital betting on price gains within the month. Spot ETFs saw net inflows of $630 million this week. The market remains optimistic about progress on stablecoin yield-related terms, along with developments tied to the CLARITY Act.

Asian equity-index futures in Australia, South Korea, and Hong Kong are set to fall Tuesday, May 5, as surging oil prices weigh on US equities and bonds. Escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have raised concerns about elevated energy costs. Japan's futures signaled a modest gain, while US

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According to Iran's Fars news agency, two missiles hit a U.S. warship today, triggering a sharp reversal in Bitcoin from its $80,594 high to around $79,000. Oil prices surged 5% on the report before the U.S. denied the claim. Ethereum, Solana, and Dogecoin declined sharply alongside the broader mark

According to the UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs, a tanker operated by the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company was struck by two Iranian drones while transiting the Strait of Hormuz on May 4. The ministry reported no casualties from the attack and strongly condemned the incident, calling on Iran to

According to European Parliament trade committee chair Bernd Lange, Trump threatened to raise tariffs on EU automobiles to 25% on May 4. Lange stated the tariffs lack legal or economic justification and are politically motivated, directly targeting German automakers. "These tariffs have neither lega

According to Gate data, WTI crude oil hit $108 per barrel today, up 5.73% intraday, while Brent crude oil rose to $112, gaining 4.14%. Spot silver declined 4.00% to $72.71 per ounce.

According to U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent on May 4, the United States controls the Strait of Hormuz, and global oil supply will be "very well supplied" despite current conflicts. Bessent stated the global oil deficit caused by ongoing conflict is approximately 8 million to 10 million barrels per

According to Iran's FARS News Agency, Iranian military attacked a U.S. warship attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz on May 4. In response to the incident, international crude oil prices surged intraday, with Brent crude futures rising 5.1% and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures climbi

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The UAE has exited OPEC. At its May meeting, OPEC+ announced a June production increase of 188k barrels per day without the UAE, with the seven countries coordinating to restrain supply. The UAE’s departure limits the organization’s influence; if it were to independently increase production again, the market could face additional pressure. Key focus going forward: the direction of the June meeting, the UAE’s independent moves, and the supply role of US shale amid disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

According to BlockBeats, WTI crude oil rose over 2% to $104.22 per barrel on May 4, while Brent crude gained 0.43% to break above $108 per barrel, recovering from earlier losses exceeding 2%. The gains were driven by reports from Israeli media stating that a U.S. operation in the Strait of Hormuz wo

According to Gate data, WTI crude oil broke through $104 per barrel today, up 1.81% intraday. WTI crude oil futures also climbed above $103 per barrel, gaining 1.04% during the same period.

Positive signals from the U.S.-Iran peace talks, but war preparations continue in parallel; control of the Strait of Hormuz faces a turning point. U.S. employment data may further reinforce dovish expectations, and BTC has returned above $80,000 for the first time in three months.

According to reports on May 4, the U.S. military escort operation in the Strait of Hormuz is expected to launch within hours as part of President Trump's "Project Freedom" to restore Persian Gulf shipping. However, the shipping industry expressed concerns over the plan's feasibility, citing lack of

According to NATO Secretary General Rutte on May 4, European NATO members are implementing agreements on U.S. military base access following discussions with U.S. officials. Rutte stated that while the U.S. expressed disappointment, "Europeans have listened and are now ensuring compliance with all b

Bitcoin rose above US$80,000 on May 4, driven by a short squeeze in crypto derivatives, according to CoinDesk. The rally triggered approximately US$370 million in liquidations over 24 hours, including roughly US$301.9 million from short positions, according to CoinGlass, a crypto market data provide