Commodities (Crude Oil & Copper) & Macro Outlook

According to Jin10, effective today (May 17), China's domestic airline tickets are subject to increased fuel surcharges. Passengers traveling on routes under 800 kilometers will pay RMB 90 per ticket; those on routes exceeding 800 kilometers will pay RMB 170 per ticket. Infants are exempt, while

According to Clemens Fuest, head of the Ifo Institute (cited by Jin10 on May 17), U.S. and Israeli military actions against Iran are dampening Germany's economic recovery. Germany's economy remains mired at 2019 levels after six years of stagnation, with 2026 growth now projected at merely 0.6%,

According to Jin10, Russian forces struck a grain terminal at a Ukrainian port on May 16, leaving seven people wounded, according to Ukraine's Development Ministry. In response, Ukrainian drone operators attacked a Russian oil refinery in Russia's Ryazan region, marking a continued escalation of

According to Jin10, Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi confirmed on May 16 that Tehran has held talks with Russia regarding a proposal to store concentrated uranium. Concurrently, an Israeli official stated that Israel is preparing to resume military operations against Iran, marking a potential

According to the Wall Street Journal, Americans spent approximately $45 billion more on gasoline and diesel during the Iran war period compared to the prior year as of May 17, 2026. The surge in oil prices is consuming a larger share of middle and lower-income households' earnings, while energy

On May 16, Iraq's new Oil Minister Basim Muhammad al-Houdail stated that the country exported approximately 10 million barrels of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz in April, sharply down from 93 million barrels monthly before the regional conflict escalated. Al-Houdail noted that without an

According to Jin10, Venezuela's government released a regulatory framework on May 17 as part of its new petroleum law, setting technical, operational, financial and compliance standards for companies operating in the country's oil and gas fields. The framework marks a significant policy shift,

According to The Sun, UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves plans to announce next week a postponement of the fuel duty increase originally scheduled for September. The temporary fuel tax cut that began in 2022 was set to expire in September; without its extension, fuel prices would rise by 5 pence per

Canadian Prime Minister Kayne expressed his view that a new crude pipeline from Alberta to the Pacific Coast will generate significant attention, according to recent statements. The proposed infrastructure project has been a focus of policy discussions in

According to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), oil speculators reduced their WTI crude net long positions by 10,947 contracts to 95,332 contracts during the week ended May 12.

Venezuela's state oil company PDVSA confirmed that a gas processing facility in Lake Maracaibo experienced an explosion, according to an official statement. A technical committee will investigate the causes of the incident. PDVSA stated that the explosion does not affect the continuity of oil and ga

According to the Intercontinental Exchange, speculators reduced their net long positions in Brent crude by 28,400 contracts during the week ending May 12, bringing the total to 345,805 contracts.

According to the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), diesel speculators increased their net long positions by 145 contracts to 59,796 for the week ended May 12.

According to local media, a fire broke out at Mexico's Olmeca refinery facility early Saturday morning on May 16.

According to Jin10 Data, the Trump administration allowed a sanction waiver encouraging Russian oil sales to expire on May 17, despite concerns over global oil supply tightness and fuel costs stemming from regional tensions. The waiver, first issued in March and renewed in April, temporarily

India's government announced on May 16 adjustments to export duties on petroleum products. The export duty on gasoline was increased by 3 rupees per liter, while export duties on diesel and aviation fuel were reduced by 16.5 rupees and 16 rupees per liter

U.S. natural gas drilling rigs declined to 128 in the week ended May 15, down one rig from the prior week's 129.

As of the week ended May 15, the U.S. total rig count stood at 551, compared to 548 in the previous week, according to weekly drilling data. The increase of 3 rigs reflects a modest uptick in drilling activity.

The U.S. oil rig count for the week ending May 15 will be released in approximately 10 minutes.