Global TradFi & Macroeconomics

Gate News update. On April 12, U.S. President Donald Trump said that the U.S.-Iran talks had reached agreement on most issues, but that they failed to reach agreement on the key issue of nuclear matters. Trump disclosed that the U.S. side had received briefings on the status of the relevant talks. The talks lasted about 20 hours, but Iran was unwilling to give up its nuclear ambitions. Trump said the U.S. would continue to push for negotiations, but at the same time had made comprehensive preparations. He reiterated that Iran would never have nuclear weapons.

Bitcoin ETFs saw a significant resurgence with $789 million in weekly inflows, the highest since February. BlackRock led the charge, contributing 80% of this total, signaling renewed institutional interest in the market after a period of withdrawals.

Fueled by the U.S.-Iran geopolitical conflict, Western banks have accelerated their exit from large-scale commodity trade finance due to compliance and sanctions risks, prompting traders to shift to stablecoins for cross-border settlement. Stablecoins have become an alternative settlement tool; their usage is rising, with market value exceeding $300 billion and on-chain transaction volume reaching $4 trillion.

Gate News message: After negotiations between the United States and Iran ended on April 12, there was no U.S. delegation left in Pakistan. U.S. President Trump’s special envoy Wittekov, Trump’s son-in-law Kushner, and the U.S. technical team have all left Pakistan’s capital, Islamabad. U.S. Vice President Vance arrived at Ramstein Air Base in Germany before 7:00 a.m. Eastern Time on the 12th. According to earlier reports from Pakistani media, Vance left Pakistan on the 12th local time. (Xinhua)

Gate News message, A whale identified as "0x9e8" closed the majority of its $SILVER long position with 20x leverage and opened a 95,577 $CL long position with 20x leverage valued at $9 million over the past 5 hours. This trading activity occurred as the U.S.-Iran negotiations did not reach success.

Gate News message: On April 12, U.S. President Trump on April 12 reposted an article about an “naval blockade” of Iran on social media. The Iranian Embassy in Austria responded the same day, saying that a blockade cannot be “opened” in the Strait of Hormuz. The embassy wrote on social media: “A simple clarification for those concerned about this matter: a blockade is a blockade. It cannot ‘open’ the Strait of Hormuz—only restrict it. To get out of this self-created predicament, the only way forward is to stay open and flexible in negotiations. Follow reason.”

North Korean hackers’ attacks against the cryptocurrency industry continue to escalate, becoming an important source of funding for maintaining their military budget. Experts say that, unlike hackers from other countries, North Korea relies more heavily on crypto theft; its tactics have evolved into precision takeover—long-term infiltration that is difficult to effectively defend against—posing a serious threat to the industry.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost noted that although March CPI recorded the largest month-over-month increase, core CPI remained stable, indicating that U.S. inflation has not fully spread yet. Attention should be paid to upcoming PCE data. If the Iran-Iraq conflict continues, inflation could evolve into a systemic risk and affect economic growth, and the Federal Reserve may need to continue raising rates to respond.

The Bitcoin halving in April 2024 lowered its annual inflation rate to 0.85%, for the first time below gold’s 1.5–2%. Bitcoin’s scarcity comes from code rules: supply will gradually decrease, and another halving is expected again in 2028. This halving cycle witnessed increased participation from institutional investors, strengthening Bitcoin’s position as digital gold.

Bank of America releases a report, adjusting its global economic outlook due to geopolitical shocks in the Middle East. The U.S. growth forecast for 2026 is lowered to 2.3%, and inflation is raised to 3.1%. The eurozone growth forecast is cut, with inflation raised to 3.3%. The report emphasizes that the impact of the shocks is uneven.

Macro investor Jordi Visser believes that if Bitcoin and Ethereum break through $76,000 and $2,400 respectively, it will kick off a sustainable uptrend. He expects high inflation to push investors to seek profitable assets, and notes that the probability of an economic recession has fallen to 24%. This view contrasts with the current bearish expectations in the crypto industry.

The breakdown of the nuclear talks between Iran and the U.S. caused Bitcoin to surge and then pull back, with the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and macroeconomic data becoming the focus. This article will explain the logic behind volatility in the crypto market amid geopolitical conflict and the movement of on-chain capital.

Gate News message: On April 12, according to Israeli media reports, after negotiations between the United States and Iran failed to reach an agreement, Israel assessed that a U.S.-Iran ceasefire could be extended so both sides can continue to stay in contact.

Gate News message: On April 12, U.S. President Trump reposted an article with the headline "If Iran Doesn’t Capitulate, the President Holds a 'Trump Ace': A Naval Blockade" and copied and posted that headline. The article states that if Iran refuses to accept the final agreement proposed by the United States on Saturday, Trump can choose to blow Iran back to the "Stone Age," as he vowed, or once again adopt the naval blockade strategy that had previously been successfully implemented in Venezuela.

The U.S. vice president, Vance, did not reach an agreement in the US-Iran negotiations held in Islamabad. The core dispute is that Iran refused the U.S. demand for a nuclear weapons commitment. The breakdown of the talks has increased geopolitical risk, affecting financial markets—especially crude oil and Bitcoin prices. Even though the negotiations were unsuccessful, both sides may still continue discussions, and the market will watch for further developments.

Morgan Stanley’s head of digital asset strategy, Amy Oldenburg, said the firm will expand its cryptocurrency allocation, including bitcoin ETFs and tokenized assets. The plan is to explore crypto tax harvesting through its subsidiary, Parametric, while it has already launched a spot bitcoin ETF and plans to offer crypto trading services. This move shows that Wall Street’s stance toward the crypto market has changed significantly.

Gate News message. On April 12, according to on-chain data monitoring, Sky (formerly MakerDAO) co-founder Rune’s 7x leveraged Nasdaq 100 short positions have all been closed. He currently still holds 20x leveraged WTI crude oil futures long positions, 7x leveraged Brent crude oil long positions, and 20x leveraged S&P 500 short positions, and all of them are in a loss position. His overall position value has now fallen to about $680k, with an unrealized loss of about $60k, and the return on investment is -21.78%.

The Ether Machine treasury company, The Ether Machine, and Dynamix Corporation’s $1.6 billion SPAC merger agreement was terminated due to unfavorable market conditions. The merger aimed to list The Ether Machine on Nasdaq; after the termination, Dynamix will receive a $50 million termination fee.