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Could the CLARITY Act be signed into law in 2026? The probability has fallen from 82% to 20%; why is the market no longer optimistic?

In August 2026, the core legislation of the U.S. crypto market regulatory framework, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY Act), is facing unprecedented uncertainty. According to data from Gate’s event market, the probability of the bill being signed into law in 2026 has plunged from its February 19 peak of 82% to approximately 20%. Galaxy Digital’s research division is even more pessimistic, lowering the figure to 10%. How has the market’s pricing logic reversed from “almost certain” to
GLXY-3.86%
BTC0.51%
ETH0.26%
GateInstantTrends·08-18 04:22
Could the CLARITY Act be signed into law in 2026? The probability has fallen from 82% to 20%; why is the market no longer optimistic?