Hyperscalers' AI Investment Enters Results-Focused Era as FY2026 Capex Doubles to $600B

According to Yardeni Research, the market is shifting its investment focus away from AI hype toward tangible results, with Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Oracle now being evaluated based on actual capital spending, signed contracts, and cloud revenue growth. The four major cloud providers' combined capital expenditure is expected to reach approximately $600 billion in fiscal 2026, nearly doubling from $309 billion in fiscal 2025.

Cloud business revenues remain robust: AWS grew 50% year-over-year, Google Cloud surged 60%, Microsoft Cloud expanded 27%, and Oracle Cloud increased 39%. Yardeni notes the market no longer treats these companies as a homogeneous investment group but evaluates each separately based on AI strategy execution, backlog size, and actual revenue results.