Fitch Assesses Yen Needs Additional BOJ Rate Hike to Strengthen; Dollar-Yen Reaches 156 on August 5

According to Fitch on August 5, the yen requires additional Bank of Japan rate hikes to sustain further gains against the dollar, even as recent joint U.S.-Japan currency market intervention has brought dollar-yen exchange rates to the August forecast level of 156 yen per dollar. The rating agency noted that yen weakness stems from multiple factors beyond the U.S.-Japan interest rate differential, including yen carry trades funding U.S. risk assets, Japan's energy import dependency, market concerns over fiscal management, and domestic investors seeking higher real returns overseas. The BOJ, which raised its policy rate to 1.0% in June after holding it at -0.1% in 2024, signaled a possible rate increase in September, though Fitch expects the actual move to occur in October. Faster rate increases could support yen strength, though returning to 2019 levels remains unlikely, the agency warned.
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