Polymarket Assigns 18% Odds to Tesla-SpaceX Merger Announcement by End of 2026

According to Polymarket traders, the prediction market assigns just an 18% probability to a Tesla-SpaceX merger announcement by December 31, 2026, despite months of speculation about Elon Musk's two flagship companies. The December 31 contract trades around 18 cents, while the September 30 contract sits at roughly 5%, suggesting minimal chance of a near-term announcement. Trading volume has exceeded $1 million across the relevant contracts.

The caution reflects near-term headwinds. SpaceX shares fell 8% to 11% following its first public earnings report after the June 2026 IPO, as investors focused on capital expenditures of $18 billion directed toward artificial intelligence infrastructure. Additionally, Wall Street Journal reports indicate Tesla is weighing a separation or sale of its China business, citing geopolitical sensitivity around SpaceX's role as a U.S. defense contractor. Musk dismissed the report as false. Structural obstacles including regulatory scrutiny, shareholder preferences, and integration complexity continue to weigh on merger prospects.