BTC rises 0.36% in the short term as progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations and a Fed pause on rate hikes drive a moderate gain

From 13:45 to 14:00 (UTC) on August 5, 2026, BTC rose 0.36% over a 15-minute period, with a price range of 64,040.2 to 64,408.2 USDT and an Ampl of 0.57%. BTC climbed steadily overall during the day, with its 24h Rise % at approximately 1.13% at the time of the report and its current price around $64,445. However, volatility remained low, and market participation was relatively limited.

The move was primarily driven by a combination of positive macroeconomic factors. First, US-Iran negotiations made positive progress. Reports from the United States and Qatar indicated breakthroughs in talks regarding an Iranian ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices fell 2%, Asian stocks jumped, geopolitical risk premiums declined significantly, and funds rotated from safe-haven assets into risk assets. Second, the Fed kept the Interest Rate at 3.5%-3.75% for the fifth consecutive meeting at its late-July FOMC meeting. Although three officials advocated a rate hike, the majority chose to wait and see. Stable interest rates eased short-term tightening concerns and provided a supportive environment for non-yielding assets such as BTC. In addition, gold prices have retreated approximately 7% this year, while the dollar has weakened, potentially directing some safe-haven funds toward BTC.

From a market-validation perspective, the 12-hour candlestick's Filled Amount was only 317.26 BTC, representing a modest rise on low volume and indicating that the current trend reflects improving macro sentiment more than a large-scale inflow of funds. Order Book data showed a bid-to-ask depth ratio of 0.42, with asks dominant. A large sell wall of approximately 0.1957 BTC was present at $64,445.2, indicating some short-term overhead selling pressure. Meanwhile, the United States Central Command resumed its maritime blockade of Iranian ports on August 4. Although the geopolitical situation has shown signs of easing, it has not been fully resolved, and the market is pricing in “cautious optimism.”

Going forward, attention should focus on the final outcome of the US-Iran negotiations. If the Strait of Hormuz officially reopens, risk assets could receive further support. However, if the talks collapse, safe-haven sentiment could intensify sharply. Technically, short-term support is at $63,600, while resistance lies between $64,600 and $65,000. Because the current rise is occurring on low volume, a break above $65,000 would require confirmation through increased volume, and investors should be wary of the credibility risks associated with a low-volume breakout.