Polymarket: U.S. Iran Blockade End Probability Rises to 80% in 24 Hours, Up 18%

According to PPP prediction market tool monitoring, Polymarket's probability for the U.S. announcing an end to its blockade on Iran by Aug. 31 rose to 80% in the past 24 hours, up 18%. The probability for an announcement by Aug. 15 climbed to 68%, up 17% over the same period.

President Trump previously stated that U.S.-Iran negotiations are "progressing very well," telling reporters "We'll know the outcome in 48 hours." He emphasized that both sides are in active discussions, with the key factor being whether an agreement can be reached.