U.S. Economic Recession Risk Rises to 0.54% as Market Volatility Shifts, Aug 5

According to Yonhapinfomax on August 5, the Panic-Boom Cycle Index—which measures global economic activity—fell to 2.67 out of 5 points, down 0.04 from a week prior, signaling mild improvement. The U.S. stock market uncertainty index dropped 124.46 to 106.85, shifting from the panic zone to the cold zone. However, the probability of U.S. economic recession rose to 0.54%, up 0.28 percentage points from one month ago, according to the index.

U.S. high-yield bond effective interest rates climbed to 14.28, up 0.36 from a week prior, indicating higher refinancing costs for weaker-credit firms. Yang Ki-tae, deputy general manager of Nonghyup Bank's risk management group, warned that rising oil prices, stock market corrections, and elevated borrowing costs could compound to amplify financial and real economic vulnerabilities in a non-linear manner.