Bitunix Analyst: Hormuz Risk Escalation, Oil-Gold Chain Activation, BTC Upside Short Liquidity Accumulation

BlockBeats News, March 3 — Dubai gold air freight hub flights are suspended, causing short-term disruptions in physical commodity flow; simultaneously, Iran claims to close the Strait of Hormuz, prompting markets to pre-trade energy disruption risks. Oil prices surge sharply, boosting inflation expectations and reducing room for rate cuts. The oil-inflation-interest rate-gold chain is being re-priced. Institutions favor gold, but if rising oil prices push up real interest rates, gold prices may face short-term pressure, with volatility likely to increase. From a cross-market perspective, high oil prices compress risk asset valuations, prompting funds to shift toward the US dollar and gold for safe-haven assets. In the coming weeks, the focus will be on the tug-of-war between inflation and real interest rates.

In the crypto market, Bitcoin rose sharply from $65,000 to above $70,000 before pulling back, a typical "liquidity sweep." The main short accumulation zone is between $69,500 and $70,500; long leverage below $68,000 has been cleared; secondary liquidity remains at around $64,000. The market has completed the first phase of "long clearing," and attention now shifts to whether further squeezing of short positions above. If Bitcoin fails to hold above $69,000, the price may revert to a range; if volume absorbs liquidity above $69,800, it could trigger passive short covering.

In summary, macro volatility is increasing, but Bitcoin remains in a range-bound liquidity game.