Matrixport: BTC remains in a bearish environment, but maintains a relatively optimistic view on overall risk assets

Odaily Planet Daily reports that Matrixport's analysis indicates: based on on-chain data and technical indicators, Bitcoin remains in a bearish environment. The most direct signal is that the price is still below the 21-week moving average. At the same time, U.S. midterm election years typically see increased policy uncertainty and fluctuating risk appetite, and this time window overlaps with Bitcoin's typical four-year cycle phase. Historically, prices tend to weaken during this period. Nevertheless, a relatively optimistic view on overall risk assets is maintained.

The re-inflation narrative persists, and the US dollar remains in a relatively weak trading range. To hedge against the pressure from declining purchasing power, dollar-based funds usually tend to maintain a relatively high allocation to risk assets. Recently, Trump's comments on the dollar's weakness have neither provided clear support signals nor taken a hard stance. The market tends to interpret this as an increased tolerance for further dollar depreciation. Coupled with some international funds increasing their non-US asset allocations and reducing their concentration in US assets, re-inflation trades may still find support in the short term.