Is there still a chance for Bitcoin to reach $100,000? Historical fractals and EMA signals suggest BTC may experience a key rebound

January 21 News, Bitcoin prices continue to face pressure during recent pullbacks. In the past 24 hours, BTC has fallen about 3%, and over the last seven days, it has declined approximately 6.6%, briefly dropping below the $90,000 mark, temporarily pushing the "Bitcoin $100,000 target price" further away. However, multiple technical indicators and on-chain data suggest that this pullback is not an abnormal phenomenon, and the historical fractal structure still leaves room for a potential rebound.

From a technical perspective, the 12-hour chart shows a hidden bullish divergence: the price forms higher lows, while RSI makes lower lows, indicating weakening selling pressure. This change in momentum often signals an upcoming rebound. Meanwhile, BTC has broken below the 20-day and 50-day EMA, but historical data shows that as long as the price re-establishes above these two exponential moving averages, the market typically experiences a significant rebound. Since mid-2025, every time the price retested and regained the EMAs, Bitcoin has seen over 10% upward expansion, forming what is known as a "fractal pattern."

On-chain data further supports this technical logic. The number of whale addresses holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC has remained stable or slightly increased since mid-January, indicating that large holders have not been rushing to sell during the decline. Additionally, long-term holders with holdings over 155 days continue to absorb coins, with their BTC balance increasing by over 60% during the weak price period.

However, the real selling pressure comes from ultra-long-term holders. Wallets holding coins for over a year have accelerated their selling after mid-January, with net outflows more than doubling within a week, becoming a major obstacle to a quick short-term rebound for Bitcoin.

Looking at key price levels, if BTC can regain and hold above $94,390 and $96,420, and close above these levels on the daily chart, the EMA rebound will be confirmed, and the psychological barrier of $100,000 will come back into reach. Conversely, if the price drops below $87,830, it may test support around $84,350, and the fractal rebound logic will be weakened.

For investors paying attention to Bitcoin price trends, BTC technical analysis, and the $100,000 forecast, the upcoming days' momentum and EMA performance will determine whether this pullback is a bottoming process or a further decline.