1. Headlines
1. The Federal Reserve signals a dovish stance, leading to a phase of rebound in the crypto market.
U.S. inflation data drives a rebound in U.S. stocks, and the crypto market follows suit, with Bitcoin returning to $112,000 and Ethereum reaching $4,130. However, the Fear and Greed Index remains at 34, indicating cautious market sentiment. Additionally, the threat of a U.S. government shutdown looms, which could affect the release of key data.
Current options data shows that open interest remains high but is skewed towards a bearish bias, indicating an increased demand for downside protection from investors. The large monthly expiration point for Deri is around $110,000, and if the price stays above this level, it will be favorable for the bulls; otherwise, it may trigger passive hedging selling pressure. Meanwhile, the RSI indicators for Bitcoin and Ethereum are nearing the oversold region, and the technical analysis suggests there may be short-term rebound momentum, but the overall trend remains weak.
Economic data will become the biggest catalyst for market trends. The Chicago PMI, JOLTs job openings, and consumer confidence index on Tuesday will provide initial signals of the resilience of the U.S. economy. The initial jobless claims and factory orders on Thursday are also important indicators to observe employment and manufacturing. The most critical is Friday's non-farm payroll report: if job growth and wage increases exceed expectations, it will strengthen the possibility of maintaining high interest rates, putting pressure on risk assets; if the data is weak, it may alleviate concerns about interest rate hikes, combined with the market's oversold condition, triggering a phase rebound.
2. Aster is questioned about poor product experience, and the token plummets by 20%.
Despite the huge attention after its launch in early September, the native token ASTER of the decentralized perpetual contract exchange Aster is rapidly declining in price, bolstered by investment and background from CZ's company. In the past 24 hours, ASTER has dropped about 8%, falling over 20% from a local high of $2.43, and is currently trading at $1.87.
Analysts point out that this sell-off mainly stems from doubts about product performance and dissatisfaction with user experience. Many traders believe that the Aster platform is slower and clunkier than its competitor Hyperliquid. At the same time, Aster's trading volume and fee income data have also raised questions within the community. Although official data shows that Aster's daily trading volume has exceeded $40 billion, analysts believe that there may be "fake trading volume" manipulation involved.
Aster's product experience is poor, possibly related to its excessive pursuit of scaled development. As a pioneer in the emerging track, Aster rapidly expanded in a short period, launching too many product lines, which instead led to the neglect of the user experience of its core products. In addition, the rapid advancement of Aster's ecological construction may have exacerbated the system's instability.
In the future, Aster needs to seek a balance between product optimization and ecosystem construction, and enhancing the user experience of core products is a top priority. At the same time, strengthening communication and interaction with the community, eliminating doubts, and rebuilding trust are also crucial for the development of Aster.
3. The outflow of Ethereum funds exceeds $1.2 billion, and the ecosystem is in a trust crisis.
Ethereum is undergoing an unprecedented wave of skepticism. Since the launch of the ETF, there has been a net sell-off/capital outflow of over 1.2 billion USD. From Ethereum's core researchers/EF to the developer community organizations, to Consensys-related businesses and external investors, a massive trust crisis is emerging.
Vitalik needs to better indicate directions and goals for different participants, as Ethereum has already become a very large decentralized business entity in the entire crypto market and even in the traditional market. Historically, such a business entity has never existed, and the challenges for the entire Ethereum community and Vitalik will become increasingly severe, reaching a point of "no reform without destruction."
This time the most discussed topic in 2049 is surprisingly the Ton ecosystem. Of course, Western funds are generally not optimistic about Ton and Web2 platforms, and while they are not optimistic, they have not answered the question of whether to invest or not. The Ethereum ecosystem is facing unprecedented challenges and needs widespread participation and support from the community to get out of the predicament and rebuild trust.
4. The financing difficulties in the cryptocurrency industry are worsening, and support for innovation is precarious.
The industry is calling for real users and new funds, with innovation support in jeopardy. In this industry, everyone is busy; some create false data and income to deceive exchanges and investors, while others engage in endless academic discussions in technical communities but forget that good infrastructure is meant to gain applications and users.
Exchanges have become the biggest winners due to their excellent revenue models, providing the best working environment and income levels in the short term, but they have made it more difficult for startups to attract top talent. This is somewhat similar to the prosperity of the 2049 conference, where amidst the thriving era, few discussions are seen on how to acquire real users and revenue, as well as stable and sustainable business models.
The overall trend in entrepreneurial projects is that a small number of top-tier circles with high configurations can easily secure financing, while most projects from ordinary entrepreneurial teams find it very difficult to obtain funding. The root of the problem lies in the fact that, at this stage, exchanges and investors cannot distinguish because they have not captured real users and generated value.
The top-tier project saw its active users drop to single digits right after launch; as a community content platform transitioning from Web2, it witnessed a massive number of founders/advisors/investors cashing out and lying flat immediately upon launch. This business model is severely harming retail investors in the community and draining the liquidity from the entire industry. The performance of altcoins may turn out to be worse than expected, forcing industry participants to reassess innovation and real application cases.
5. The AI sector has become a new hotspot, with traditional companies and entrepreneurs flocking in.
At the same time, in this 2049 event, we also saw more founders transitioning from traditional AI to Web3 entrepreneurship, with representatives from Gensyn and Hyperbolic in Computing, as well as Web2-type all-in players represented by Schelling AI, and Title.xyz, which is dedicated to creating Midjourney-style image/video generation models. AI + Consumer + DeFi is becoming a new track that industry funds are actively betting on.
I hope that peers and the exchange listing team can focus more on long-term entrepreneurs, as supporting these talents will definitely bring better use cases and growth to the industry. Traditional companies and entrepreneurs are flocking into the AI track, demonstrating the industry's eager expectation for AI technology. Compared to speculative projects, teams that truly focus on AI technology innovation are more worthy of attention.
Breakthroughs in AI technology are expected to bring new development opportunities to the cryptocurrency industry, driving the sector towards a more efficient, secure, and transparent future. However, it is also important to remain vigilant about the risks of bubble formation and to rationally assess the true value of projects. Only by adhering to long-termism and focusing on technological innovation can the AI track truly unleash its immense potential.
2. Industry News
1. Bitcoin returns to $112,000, leading the crypto market rebound.
Bitcoin briefly fell below the $110,000 mark last weekend, but quickly rebounded after the market opened on Monday, breaking through the $112,000 barrier again. Data shows that Bitcoin rose 2.41% within 24 hours, reaching a high of $112,500. This rebound has stabilized the entire cryptocurrency market, with the total market capitalization climbing back to nearly $4 trillion.
Analysts pointed out that the recent rebound of Bitcoin is mainly due to the re-entry of bullish forces. After last week's sharp decline, the price of Bitcoin has approached an important support level, attracting a lot of funds to buy on the dip. At the same time, the funding rate in the futures market remains positive, indicating that bullish sentiment is reigniting.
However, whether Bitcoin can truly break free from the range-bound fluctuations remains to be seen. Some analysts believe that Bitcoin needs to break through the $115,000 level to confirm the arrival of a new upward trend. In the short term, U.S. economic data will become an important catalyst affecting the market. The employment and manufacturing data released this week may trigger significant market volatility.
2. Ethereum returns above $4000, over $1.1 billion in short positions face liquidation risk.
Under the leadership of Bitcoin, the price of Ethereum also rebounded significantly this Monday, rising back above the $4000 mark. Data shows that Ethereum increased by 3% within 24 hours, reaching a high of $4130.
Meanwhile, the reserves of Ethereum on cryptocurrency exchanges continue to decline, indicating strong buying demand in the market. According to statistics, there are currently over $1.1 billion worth of Ethereum short positions at risk of being liquidated.
Analysts point out that the rebound in Ethereum's price is mainly driven by two favorable factors. On one hand, the launch of the US spot ETH ETF has attracted a large amount of institutional funds; on the other hand, the continuous development of the Ethereum ecosystem, including popular applications such as DeFi and NFTs, is emerging one after another.
However, some analysts are cautious about the future of Ethereum. They believe that Ethereum still faces certain resistance around the $4000 mark and needs to break through this threshold to continue its upward momentum. In addition, changes in regulatory policies may also impact the price of Ethereum.
3. Solana faces selling pressure, and SOL struggles to maintain the $200 level.
Unlike the rebound of Bitcoin and Ethereum, Solana(SOL) faced significant selling pressure this Monday. Data shows that SOL fell by 3.06% within 24 hours, hitting a low of around $196.
Analysts point out that the main reason for the decline of SOL lies in the sharp drop in open interest in the futures market, as well as a significant reduction in the confidence of short-term holders. The decline in open interest has weakened market momentum, making it difficult for SOL to find strong support.
At the same time, the unrealized net profit/loss of short-term holders ( NUPL ) indicator fell to 0.03, placing the market in the "hope-fear" zone, suggesting that slight price fluctuations could also trigger panic selling.
However, some analysts hold an optimistic view on the future of SOL. They believe that the continuous development of the Solana ecosystem, the increase in institutional demand, and the potential launch of ETF products will all provide support for the SOL price. As long as SOL can maintain the key psychological level of 200 dollars, there is still a chance for a rebound in the fourth quarter.
4. Altcoins rebound against the trend, led by PUMP, ZEC, ATH.
As mainstream cryptocurrencies show divergence, some altcoins rebounded against the market trend this Monday, performing remarkably. Data shows that Pump.fun(PUMP), Zcash(ZEC), and Aethir(ATH) have all recorded double-digit gains in the past 24 hours, with ZEC reaching a new high for the year.
At the same time, the open interest in the cryptocurrency derivatives market has also seen a significant increase, surging by 44%, indicating that market risk appetite is rebounding.
Analysts believe that the rebound of altcoins is mainly driven by two factors. On one hand, investors' expectations for the "Uptober" market in the fourth quarter have led to an inflow of funds into risk assets; on the other hand, some altcoin projects themselves have favorable development prospects and have gained market favor.
However, some analysts are cautious about the rebound of altcoins. They point out that altcoins often experience extreme volatility, and if buying power weakens, they may quickly give back their gains. Therefore, investors need to closely monitor market trends and manage their risk exposure.
5. Gold hits a new high, Bitcoin's "Uptober" trend may continue
In the traditional market, the price of gold hit a new historical high again this Monday, once breaking through the $3,800 per ounce barrier. Analysts believe that this is mainly driven by safe-haven demand, with factors such as geopolitical risks and the risk of a U.S. government shutdown exerting pressure.
At the same time, market expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are continuously rising, providing support for the increase in gold prices. Data shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in October has reached as high as 89.3%.
The rise in gold prices has ignited speculation about Bitcoin's potential upward trend during the historically bullish "Uptober" period. Some analysts believe that Bitcoin may follow gold's lead and continue its upward trend in the fourth quarter.
However, there are also viewpoints that believe the correlation between Bitcoin and gold is not stable, and the trends of the two may diverge. In addition, changes in on-chain data may also affect Bitcoin's performance. Therefore, investors need to closely monitor signals from various aspects and make prudent judgments about future trends.
3. Project News
1. Sui Network: Move ecosystem new star continues to exert strength
Sui Network is a brand new blockchain project created by the core team that previously participated in the Diem( development at Facebook. The project is built on the Move language and aims to provide high-performance and highly scalable blockchain infrastructure.
Recently, Sui Network launched the SuiPlay gaming platform and set up the largest game booth at the KBW conference in South Korea, showcasing its ambitions within the Move ecosystem. In addition, Sui has partnered with Grayscale Trust and USDC to inject stable liquidity into its ecosystem.
As a rising star in the Move ecosystem, the emergence of Sui Network has garnered widespread attention in the industry. Its high performance and scalability are expected to address the bottleneck issues currently faced by blockchain, providing better infrastructure for DApp development. However, the Sui ecosystem currently has few investable projects and limited star projects, and its long-term development needs to be tested over time.
Industry insiders believe that the success of Sui will depend on its technological strength and ecosystem development. If it can continue to attract high-quality projects and launch appealing applications, Sui Network is expected to become a leader in the Move ecosystem.
) 2. Aptos: The new blockchain star from Meta
Aptos is an emerging blockchain project founded by former employees of Meta###Facebook(. The project is based on the Move language and focuses on building high-performance, secure, and scalable blockchain infrastructure.
Recent news shows that Aptos has officially launched its mainnet recently and has received investments from well-known institutions including Gemini Capital and Multicoin Capital. Its outstanding technical strength and strong financial support have made Aptos a focal point in the Move ecosystem.
As an emerging project, the development direction of Aptos still needs to be clarified. Industry insiders believe that the Aptos Foundation needs to establish a clear roadmap and attract more high-quality projects to fully leverage its technological advantages and secure a place in the Move ecosystem.
At the same time, Aptos is facing challenges from competitors such as Sui Network. In the future, Aptos needs to continue innovating in areas such as performance, security, and ecological development in order to stand out in the competition of the Move ecosystem.
) 3. Movement: The dark horse in the Move ecosystem
Movement is another emerging project worth paying attention to in the Move ecosystem. Unlike Sui Network and Aptos, Movement is still in the early stages of development and has not officially launched its token yet.
However, Movement has attracted the attention of many investors and developers due to its outstanding technical strength and innovative concepts. The project aims to create a highly scalable, secure, and low-cost blockchain infrastructure to better support DApp development.
Industry insiders believe that although Movement started later, its technological potential cannot be ignored. If it can successfully advance its development and attract quality projects, Movement is expected to secure a place in the Move ecosystem.
However, Movement also faces significant pressure from competitors such as Sui Network and Aptos. In the future, Movement needs to put in considerable effort in areas such as technological innovation and ecosystem development to break through in the competition of the Move ecosystem.
Overall, the Move ecosystem is becoming a new hotspot in the blockchain field. The rise of projects like Sui Network, Aptos, and Movement has brought new vitality and development opportunities to the Move ecosystem. Both inside and outside the industry will continue to pay attention to the development trends of these projects.
4. Economic Dynamics
1. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in October is as high as 89.3%, and economic data may be the key.
According to the CME "FedWatch" tool, the market widely expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its monetary policy meeting in October, with a probability as high as 89.3%. This expectation mainly stems from the recent mixed performance of U.S. economic data.
Economic Background: The US economy maintained strong growth in the first half of this year, with a seasonally adjusted annualized GDP growth of 3.8% in the second quarter, far exceeding expectations. However, inflation levels remain high, with the core PCE price index rising 4.7% year-on-year in August, well above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%. The job market remains strong, but signs of a slowdown are becoming apparent.
Important event: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell reiterated at the annual central bank seminar in August that interest rates will continue to rise until inflation shows clear signs of cooling. However, he also suggested that as the economy slows, the pace of interest rate hikes may slow down. This is seen as a signal that the Federal Reserve is beginning to shift to a more moderate stance.
Market Reaction: Investors' expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October are rising, primarily based on concerns about an economic slowdown. Recent fluctuations in U.S. stocks reflect the market's divergence regarding the economic outlook. The persistently inverted yield curve is seen as a harbinger of a recession.
Expert Opinion: Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius stated that the Federal Reserve may cut rates by 25 basis points in October, but still needs to continue raising rates to curb inflation. He anticipates that the Federal Reserve will end its rate hike cycle in the first half of 2023. HSBC believes that the Federal Reserve may pause rate hikes in November. Overall, experts generally expect that the Federal Reserve will slow down its rate hike pace in the coming months.
2. China's industrial profits surged by 20.4% in August, indicating the ongoing momentum of economic recovery.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, in August 2022, large-scale industrial enterprises in China achieved a total profit of 782.62 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 20.4%, with a growth rate accelerating by 10.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. This data far exceeds market expectations, reflecting that the momentum of China's economic recovery still exists.
Economic Background: Since the beginning of this year, China's economy has struggled to grow under multiple pressures such as the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical tensions, and a sluggish domestic real estate market. In the first half of the year, GDP grew by only 2.5% year-on-year, far below the annual target of 5.5%. However, with the optimization of pandemic prevention policies and the introduction of a series of support measures, the economy has shown signs of stabilization and recovery since June.
Important events: In response to economic downward pressure, the Chinese government has introduced a series of support policies, including infrastructure investment, tax reductions, and measures to stabilize employment and protect people's livelihoods. In August, China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index ###PMI( returned to the expansion zone, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment.
Market reaction: After the release of China's industrial profit data for August, which exceeded expectations, both the domestic stock market and the RMB exchange rate saw an increase. Investor confidence in the prospects for China's economic recovery has strengthened. However, profits in the real estate sector fell by 88.4% year-on-year, reflecting the continued sluggishness of the real estate market.
Expert Opinion: Xie Nan, a macroeconomist from CICC, believes that the August industrial profit data reflects that the Chinese economy is gradually recovering. However, he warns that the global economic slowdown and geopolitical tensions could weigh on China's exports and investments. HSBC's China economist Wang Can states that the recovery of the Chinese economy still faces many uncertainties and requires further policy support.
) 3. The risk of a U.S. government shutdown is increasing, and the release of economic data may be affected.
The U.S. Congress failed to reach an agreement on the funding bill for the 2023 fiscal year, increasing the risk of a government shutdown on October 1. This could impact the release of important economic data, thereby increasing market uncertainty.
Economic background: The US economy has maintained strong growth in the first half of this year, but inflation levels remain high. The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates significantly to curb inflation, raising concerns about an economic recession. Investors are closely watching the upcoming employment and inflation data to assess the direction of the Federal Reserve's next policy move.
Important news: There are differences between the two chambers of the U.S. Congress regarding the fiscal year 2023 appropriation bill, and they failed to reach an agreement before the end of the fiscal year on September 30. The White House has warned that if a temporary funding bill is not passed before October 1, the U.S. government will face a shutdown.
Market reaction: Investors are concerned that a government shutdown will affect the release of important economic data, such as the September non-farm payroll report and the Consumer Price Index ###CPI( data. This will increase market uncertainty and may trigger significant volatility in financial markets. U.S. stock futures opened lower on Monday.
Expert Opinion: Goldman Sachs stated that if the government shutdown is short-lived, the impact on the economy will be limited. However, if it lasts longer, it will negatively affect employment and consumer confidence. Bank of America Merrill Lynch believes that even if the government shuts down, the Department of Labor and the Department of Commerce will still release employment and inflation data, but it may be delayed. Overall, experts generally believe that the risk of a government shutdown has increased market uncertainty.
5. Regulation & Policy
) 1. The chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission proposed to ease reporting requirements for listed companies.
Policy Background
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is an independent federal government agency responsible for regulating the U.S. securities markets. Its primary duties include maintaining fair and orderly market operations, protecting investor interests, and facilitating capital formation. The SEC chairman is nominated by the president and confirmed by the Senate, holding significant influence over the regulatory policies of the securities market.
Policy Content
SEC Chairman Paul Atkins stated on Monday that he is considering changing the quarterly reporting requirements for publicly listed companies to biannually in order to reduce the compliance burden on businesses. Currently, publicly listed companies are required to submit detailed financial reports and operational status to the SEC on a quarterly basis. Atkins believes that the government should provide a minimum level of effective regulation to protect investors while allowing businesses to thrive. This initiative aims to create a more relaxed operating environment for businesses and attract more companies to list in the United States. The new policy is expected to officially take effect in 2026.
Market Reaction
This policy initiative has sparked widespread attention and discussion in the market. Supporters argue that reducing reporting frequency can lower compliance costs for businesses, improve operational efficiency, and benefit business development. However, critics are concerned that this may lower the transparency of information disclosure, affecting investors' decision-making. Some investors and analysts have expressed that they prefer to receive timely financial information to better assess the company's operational status.
Expert Opinion
Senior financial analyst James Bradley stated: "This policy change reflects the government's concern about the burden on businesses. However, the transparency and timeliness of information disclosure are crucial for maintaining market order. The government needs to seek an appropriate balance between alleviating the burden on businesses and protecting investors' rights."
Veteran Wall Street lawyer Sarah King holds a different view: "The reporting obligations of public companies have become too burdensome, affecting their operational efficiency. Moderately relaxing reporting requirements is beneficial for creating a more business-friendly environment, attracting more companies to list in the United States, which is advantageous for the development of capital markets."
2. The National Development and Reform Commission will formulate policy guidelines for the new generation of smart terminals and intelligent entities.
Policy Background
The National Development and Reform Commission is China's highest-level macroeconomic management department, responsible for researching and formulating overall plans and policies for national economic and social development. With the rapid development of artificial intelligence technology, it has become an urgent task to formulate relevant policy guidelines to regulate and promote the development of this emerging industry.
Policy Content
Li Chao, Deputy Director of the Policy Research Office of the National Development and Reform Commission, stated at a press conference that guidelines for the new generation of intelligent terminals and intelligent entities will be formulated to create a policy environment that is clear in direction, respects regulations, and develops in a standardized manner. These guidelines will propose principles and specific work requirements focusing on technical support, application promotion, and security governance. The purpose of the policy is to create a favorable environment for the development of the artificial intelligence industry, promote the innovative application of related technologies, and strengthen security supervision to prevent potential risks.
Market Reaction
This news has garnered widespread attention and welcome from industry insiders. The artificial intelligence industry is in a rapid development phase and urgently needs regulatory policies and guidance. Relevant companies have stated that clear policy directions will benefit enterprises in formulating development strategies and increasing R&D investments. At the same time, requirements for safety governance will also help enhance public confidence and acceptance of artificial intelligence technology.
Expert Opinion
Zhang Wei, the director of the Institute of Artificial Intelligence at Tsinghua University, stated: "Artificial intelligence is a system engineering project that requires the joint efforts of the government, enterprises, research institutions, and other parties. National-level policy guidance points the direction for industrial development and is crucial for promoting the innovative application of artificial intelligence technology."
Liang Mengsong, the president of the Chinese Association for Artificial Intelligence, believes that: "Safety is a prerequisite for the development of artificial intelligence, and policy guidance is of great significance for strengthening safety governance. We need to establish a complete legal and regulatory system to standardize the research and application of artificial intelligence technology, maximizing risk prevention."
