DirectorAnnie
DirectorAnnie
10-12 04:44
ASMLASML-3.56%
TSMTSM-2.28%
Is the AI frenzy about to come to an abrupt end? Four of the ten topping signals have already been triggered:

1. It’s all storytelling, while real profits can’t keep up
Stock prices are rising entirely because everyone is assigning sky-high valuations out of thin air, without looking at actual profits. The higher prices rise, the more vulnerable they become to interest-rate hikes and high rates.

2. Spending is outpacing earnings, with promises pushed years into the future
AI revenue is based entirely on future demand that hasn’t been contractually signed yet. The pace of spending on equipment is far faster than the cash coming in, leaving enormous depreciation and debt-repayment pressure down the road.

3. Earnings beat expectations, but stock prices plunge instead
When stock prices fall despite solid earnings reports, it means the good news has already been fully priced in and the market has run out of momentum. Watch ASML and TSMC’s performance this week.

4. Only a few giants are holding up the market
The indexes may appear to be rising, but in reality, they are being driven by just one or two super-heavyweights. Most ordinary stocks have barely risen, and some are even quietly trending downward.

5. Large institutions have started sneaking out, with early signs already visible ⚠️:
Deutsche Bank downgraded technology stocks, and portfolio allocations have begun shifting toward lagging sectors such as financials. Historical experience shows that this kind of rapid rise is highly prone to an abrupt V-shaped plunge.

6. Peripheral markets are crashing first, with early signs already visible ⚠️:
Trading volume in AI-related peripheral markets such as South Korea’s stock market has plunged 70%, while foreign capital is fleeing in droves. Usually, the peripheral players lose support first, followed by a peak in U.S. stocks.

7. Companies and major shareholders are rushing to cash out at elevated levels, with early signs already visible ⚠️:
Various AI companies are rushing to raise money through IPOs, secondary offerings, and block trades. Company executives understand market conditions best. If they are selling aggressively, you should not blindly buy from them.

8. Debt-fueled spending is drawing scrutiny, and major banks are starting to pour cold water on the hype, with early signs already visible ⚠️:
DBS Bank warned that the risks of borrowing for AI infrastructure are too high. A frenzy sustained by debt is most vulnerable to pressure from high interest rates.

9. Violent swings up and down, with positive news turning into a distribution day
Stock prices are beginning to surge and plunge wildly. When positive news comes out, buyers no longer respond—instead, it becomes the perfect opportunity for large funds to push prices higher and sell into the strength.

10. Only one belief remains across the entire internet
The entire rally is being propped up by promises from a few giants to continue spending heavily on equipment. If even one of them slightly lowers its forecast for next quarter, the entire sector could flash-crash.

Absolutely do not use leverage. Keep plenty of cash on hand, and wait for the trend to become clear before entering on the right side.
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