Lately, all this LST and restaking stuff has been making my head spin. I can’t even clearly break down the sources of yield into three layers: protocol tokens, points, and ETH staking rewards—and some protocols even require lockups… Anyway, I now have to split my notes into two columns: on the left, “Where does the money come from?” and on the right, “Where might the money disappear?” When new chains launch incentives, the groups chant “farm, withdraw, sell” every day. Older users, on the other hand, just sigh and say that at least they used to know what they were doing. Now there’s too much information, and simply looking at the APY number isn’t enough. I actually kind of agree, so I’ve set myself one hard rule: before interacting with any contract, I handwrite three sentences—why I’m signing, how much I could lose in the worst case, and when I’d want to get out. If I can’t write it clearly, I don’t sign. If I can, I screenshot it and save it to my photo album. Put simply, with restaking leverage stacked on top of leverage, the risk isn’t “whether you’ll lose money,” but “whether you’ll be able to get out when you’re losing.” My filter is pretty basic: I ask just one question—if the mainnet gets congested tomorrow, can I unstake before gas fees blow up? If I can’t answer that, I’ll set the high yield aside for now. That’s all for now—I’m off to turn the page in my notebook.

Shorting BTC and ETH—I’ll say this for the last time. What is everyone afraid of? The U.S. dollar is strengthening macroeconomically, while inflation and interest rates are both exerting pressure; yesterday’s rebound was a bull trap, followed by long liquidations, and ETFs are still seeing continued outflows. Technically, it’s even more direct—the bullish flag on ETH has already broken down. Of course, these are only the current factors and trends. Ultimately, we still have to wait for the CPI data before choosing a direction. For now, BTC’s strong support is at 81,000, while ETH’s strong support is around 2430. Until a direction emerges, position sizing is everything. $BTC $ETH ‍#比特币 #以太坊 #MarketAnalysis

BTC and ETH rebound from their lows, but this cannot yet be considered a reversal BTC fell to around 81000 at its lowest before rebounding, and is currently around 83600. The short-term trend is recovering, but the four-hour resistance has not yet been broken. Do not chase longs today; wait for a rebound to the resistance zone and then observe for shorting opportunities. 【BTC Strategy】 Direction: Short Entry: Rejected at 84050—84200, then breaks back below 84050 Target 1: 83400 Target 2: 82700 🔴 Stop-loss: Above 84480 If 84480 is broken with increased volume and the price holds above it after a retest, cancel the short plan . ETH is currently around 2527, with a weaker rebound than BTC. 【ETH Strategy】 Direction: Short Entry: Rejected at 2560—2572, then breaks back below 2560 Target 1: 2515 Target 2: 2470 🔴 Stop-loss: Above 2592 If 2592 is broken and the price holds above it after a retest, cancel the short plan. The CFTC is advancing a regulatory framework for crypto leverage and margin trading, but it is still in the public consultation stage and cannot be considered a reason to chase gains. Do not chase gains or enter in the middle of the range; patiently wait for signs of rejection. This is only personal market analysis and does not constitute investment advice. Please control your position size when trading contracts and use stop-losses.