Token unlocks are repeatedly priced by the market not because of the act of "unlocking" itself, but because the newly added supply, relative to the existing circulating float, changes the supply-demand balance—and whether the receiving parties have conditions that force them to sell immediately. Even when both are labeled "large unlocks," one project releases more than 60% of already circulating tokens and the recipients are early financial investors, while the other involves internal transfers within a foundation. The logic for how each affects the order book can be completely opposite.
In the second week of November 2026, Allora (ALLO), Connex (CONX), and Aztec (AZTEC) will each undergo supply events between November 11 and 15, releasing a total value of more than $40 million. Below, we break down the three projects’ supply-impact structures one by one across three verifiable dimensions: the proportion of unlocked tokens relative to the total released supply, the attributes of the token recipients, and the liquidity environment where the unlock window sits.
Unlocking Event Overview: Three Sets of Numbers, Three Different Magnitudes
According to Token Unlocks and Foresight News data, the key parameters of the three unlocks are as follows:
Allora (ALLO) will unlock about 160.2 million ALLO tokens on November 11, worth about $23.37 million, accounting for 65.54% of its already released supply. Among recipients, early supporters receive about 102.47 million tokens, and core contributors receive about 57.75 million.
Source: Tokenomist
Connex (CONX) will unlock 1.32 million CONX tokens on November 15, worth about $17.72 million, representing 1.37% of its already released supply. Of this, about 822,500 tokens go to the ecosystem fund, and 500,000 tokens go to the community treasury.
Source: Tokenomist
Aztec (AZTEC) will unlock 797.5 million AZTEC tokens on November 13, worth about $10.04 million, accounting for 31.81% of its already released supply. All tokens are transferred to the Aztec Foundation.
Source: Tokenomist
The three unlocks’ dollar values fall within the same order of magnitude ($10 million to $23 million), but the proportion dimension differs by nearly 48x: ALLO at 65.54% versus CONX at 1.37%. This points to two completely different supply curve shapes. Dollar value can only tell you how much "flows into the pool." It’s the proportion of released supply and the recipient structure that determine how much of that supply can convert into immediate sell pressure.
Allora (ALLO): A High-Proportion Unlock and the Behavior Function of Early Holders
Allora is a decentralized network for machine learning inference. Independent models submit predictions on the network. Incentives come based on accuracy. The ALLO token supports inference payments, model registration staking, and governance. As of November 6, 2026, according to Gate Market data, ALLO is trading at $0.14915, down 0.49% over the past 24 hours. Its market cap is about $29.6981 million, ranking #571. The last 30 days are down 40.32%, and the last 90 days are down 51.49%.
Source: Gate Market data
From the tokenomics structure, the special feature of this round’s ALLO unlock is not simply that "the amount is large," but that, relative to the existing circulating float, the proportion is extremely high. 160.2 million tokens make up 65.54% of the already released supply. That means that once the unlock completes, the ALLO supply available for trading in the market will be close to twice the scale of the original circulating float. More importantly, consider who receives it: early supporters and core contributors hold positions with a cost advantage. Their selling decisions are triggered under a reference framework that is not the same as that of secondary-market buyers’ cost basis.
Bitrue’s analysis notes that the tracker’s estimate of ALLO unlock size differs within a range of 160.2 million to 173.9 million tokens, because different platforms use different inclusion criteria when calculating whether small-batch network emissions and ecosystem distributions are counted as part of the core unlock. This detail doesn’t change the overall conclusion. However, it suggests that when assessing ALLO’s supply impact, the denominator should be the already released supply rather than total supply. The denominator for 65.54% is 244.44 million tokens, not the 1 billion tokens of total supply. Using total supply as the denominator would significantly underestimate the relative magnitude of this round’s unlock.
ALLO’s unlock date also coincides with the anniversary of when trading began on November 11, 2025. From a behavioral finance perspective, one-year milestones often become a concentrated window where early investors reassess how long to hold. Meanwhile, the unlock event itself may also be priced in by some holders ahead of time, creating a "sell before unlock, then wait after unlock" rhythm—not a straightforward linear thesis of "unlock equals immediate sell-off."
Connex (CONX): Structural Tension Amplified by an Extremely Thin Float
Connex positions itself as a permissionless Web3 professional network that combines blockchain and network technology for professional payments, governance, and credential verification in the digital economy. Among the three projects, CONX’s unlock proportion is the lowest: 1.32 million tokens, or 1.37% of the already released supply.
But a low proportion doesn’t automatically mean low impact. We need to introduce another variable: the depth of the circulating float. CONX’s circulating supply is only about 1.16 million tokens. Total supply is 100 million tokens, so the circulation rate is about 1.16%. This structure implies CONX’s secondary-market order book is extremely thin. Data from third-party market aggregators shows that CONX’s 24-hour trading volume fluctuates around a few thousand dollars. Reported values across platforms range from about $4,700 to $11,000. In an environment with such limited liquidity, the marginal impact of 1.32 million tokens, relative to the daily amount that can be absorbed, does not scale linearly by percentage.
The recipient structure provides some buffering along CONX’s impact path. The 822,500 tokens received by the ecosystem fund and the 500,000 tokens received by the community treasury both belong to addresses under protocol control or community governance frameworks. Their selling is usually constrained by multisig approvals or governance processes, which is fundamentally different from positions that individual investors can freely dispose of. Tokenomist also classifies CONX’s unlock this round as routine execution under a preset vesting schedule, rather than a sudden supply event.
Therefore, evaluating CONX shouldn’t focus on "a low unlock proportion, so it’s safe." The real question is whether an extremely thin float will amplify the price impact of any marginal supply that actually reaches the market. With daily trading volume in the thousands of dollars range, even if only a small portion of the unlocked amount ultimately converts into sell orders, the disturbance to price discovery could still exceed what 1.37% would suggest.
Aztec (AZTEC): High-Proportion Unlock and the Buffer Effect of Internal Transfers within the Foundation
Aztec is a privacy-first Layer 2 network built on Ethereum. It uses zero-knowledge proofs to enable programmable smart contracts and encrypted state. The AZTEC token is used for staking by sequencers and provers, governance voting, and settlement of transaction fees. As of November 6, 2026, according to Gate Market data, AZTEC is trading at $0.012456, down 5.59% over the past 24 hours. Its market cap is about $36.3463 million, ranking #491. The last 7 days are down 12.05%.
Source: Gate Market data
On the proportion dimension, 797.5 million AZTEC tokens represent 31.81% of the already released supply. The absolute size is larger than CONX but smaller than ALLO. However, on the recipient dimension, AZTEC’s structure differs materially from the first two: all unlocked tokens are transferred to the Aztec Foundation, not allocated to individual addresses of early supporters or core contributors.
The substance of this difference lies in the constraints on selling. Tokens held by foundations typically serve ecosystem funding, R&D grants, and long-term operations. Their spending pace is determined by the organization’s budget process, so they rarely conduct a one-off, concentrated sell. In other words, this round of AZTEC unlock looks more like "a repositioning of token holdings within the same controlling entity" rather than "a transfer of ownership from locked addresses to potential sellers." When assessing short-term sell pressure, the presence of the foundation introduces an organizational layer of buffering, making the immediately sellable size implied by the 31.81% proportion significantly lower than the nominal figure.
However, this buffer isn’t without limits. Aztec’s total supply is 10.35 billion tokens, and the already released supply is 2.51 billion, so the circulation rate remains relatively low. The supply curve across subsequent vesting windows is the more important pricing variable for the longer term. The significance of this round’s foundation transfer is that, in the short term, it locks part of the supply into a holder whose objective is not maximizing short-term profits. Yet it does not change the basic pattern that AZTEC still faces ongoing supply unlock releases over the medium to long term.
Macro Conditions of the Unlock Window: The Liquidity Environment Itself Is Also a Variable
No unlock event can be priced without considering the market liquidity conditions it occurs under. On November 6, 2026, the total crypto market capitalization was about $2.54 trillion, down 3.42% from $2.63 trillion one week earlier. Bitcoin was around $75,600, while Ethereum was around $2,224. Over the same period, they fell approximately 3.08% and 0.36%, respectively. The Fear and Greed Index recorded 28, placing it in the "Fear" range.
In an environment where risk appetite contracts and order book depth thins, the price elasticity associated with supply increments of the same nominal amount is usually higher than in neutral or bullish conditions. This isn’t a prediction of unlock outcomes. It describes the transmission conditions: when the overall market is de-risking, recipients’ marginal motivation to convert tokens into stable assets increases, while counterparties’ marginal willingness to bid decreases. When both sides move in the same direction, the actual price impact of the unlock event is amplified. The unlocks for the three projects are concentrated within a macro window where volatility is amplified. That condition should be included in the evaluation framework, not just by comparing the size of unlock amounts.
Conclusion
Returning to the question raised by the title: among ALLO, CONX, and AZTEC, which is worth watching? The answer depends on the dimension you focus on. If you use "nominal supply increase relative to the existing circulating float" as the standard, ALLO’s 65.54% and the recipient structure of early holders form the most direct supply test among the three. If you use "whether a low proportion gets amplified in an extremely thin float" as the standard, CONX’s daily trading depth in the thousands-of-dollars range means that the 1.32 million token unlock also carries meaningful marginal impact to track. If you use "recipient behavior constraints" as the standard, AZTEC’s internal transfer within the foundation provides a relatively clear buffering mechanism in the short term. However, it does not change the underlying reality that AZTEC still faces a continuous supply-release path over the longer term.
The shared macro backdrop for all three—fear-dominant sentiment and shrinking total market capitalization—means that price discovery during the unlock window is driven more by the fragility of marginal supply and demand than by the absolute ranking of unlock amounts. For traders focused on supply events and for research-oriented readers, tracking the subsequent actions of recipient addresses, changes in actual trading volume over the days after unlock, and the spending disclosures of foundation-type entities is more informative than simply remembering how many dollars were unlocked.
FAQ
After this round of ALLO unlocks, how much will the circulating supply become?
ALLO has already released about 244.44 million tokens. After unlocking 160.2 million tokens in this round, the circulating size will be close to the 405 million token range. Note that different data platforms may use different statistical methodologies for "already released supply." It’s more reliable to refer to the official allocation contracts and on-chain data from Tokenomist.
Why does CONX still need attention if the unlock proportion is only 1.37%?
Because CONX’s float is extremely thin: circulating supply is about 1.16 million tokens, and third-party data sources show its 24-hour trading volume is in the range of thousands of dollars to $11,000. With such limited order book depth, the price impact of marginal sell pressure does not scale linearly by percentage. The real tradable increment implied by 1.37% is not small relative to the daily average absorption capacity.
AZTEC’s entire unlock goes to the foundation—does that mean there’s no sell pressure?
"No sell pressure" doesn’t mean "no supply." A foundation’s holdings are not the same as permanent lock-ups. Its selling is constrained by organizational budgets and governance processes, so the probability and timing of converting holdings into immediate market sell orders are typically lower than those from individual investor addresses. A more accurate statement is: the transmission chain for short-term direct sell pressure is longer, not that it doesn’t exist.
Have the unlock data for the three projects been finalized and confirmed?
Tokenomist marks the unlocks for ALLO, CONX, and AZTEC as pending verification. The actual unlock quantities and timing should follow each project’s official contract events and on-chain confirmations.
