BTC surged 0.59% in 15 minutes: Escalation of the US-Iran conflict triggered safe-haven buying

From 02:00 to 02:15 (UTC) on August 24, 2026, BTC rose rapidly over the 15-minute period, gaining 0.59%. The price ranged from 76,868.1 to 77,411.5 USDT, representing a 0.71% fluctuation. Overall market activity was subdued, with trading volume of approximately 478.75 BTC. A bid-ask depth ratio of 0.57 indicated that sell orders outweighed buy orders, but a large buy wall at $77,123.5 on the order book provided short-term support.

The primary driver of this move was the sharp escalation of the US-Iran conflict. Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until the United States changed course, causing geopolitical risks to surge. Meanwhile, US military casualties in the conflict in Iran rose to 774, strengthening expectations that the conflict could become protracted. These developments pushed gold above $4,600, boosting safe-haven sentiment. BTC, often referred to as “digital gold,” benefited from safe-haven buying and rose rapidly in the short term.

At the same time, multiple macroeconomic factors offset one another. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% for the fifth consecutive meeting, while the probability of a rate hike in December rose to 34.8%, putting pressure on risk assets. Trump’s imposition of a 50% tariff on Canada expanded the US-Canada trade war, further intensifying global economic uncertainty. BTC ETFs have recently seen significant reductions in short positions, increased spot-trading volume, and new inflows, indicating a marginal increase in institutional appetite for allocation and providing support for the price. The bulls and bears have reached a short-term standoff, with the price moving within a narrow range.

Technically, the current outlook is bearish. The RSI on both the 4-hour and daily charts is in overbought territory, while an ADX reading as high as 66.7 indicates strong trend momentum and the potential for a pullback. Going forward, focus should be placed on the September 15–16 FOMC meeting, the substantive direction of the US-Iran conflict, and BTC ETF fund flows. Support is at $75,560, while resistance is at $78,050. With trading volume low, the reliability of any directional move is limited; attention should be paid to whether key support levels hold and to changes in trading volume.