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CME Group and FanDuel Expand Into Prediction Markets as Industry Competition Intensifies - Crypto Economy
TL;DR
CME Group and FanDuel announced FanDuel Predicts, a new prediction market product set to launch in the United States this December. The platform will allow users to wager on sports events, gas prices, and cryptocurrencies.
Prediction markets operate by letting users bet on the probability of specific real-world events, such as a quarterback’s average yards per game or what a public company might say during an earnings call.
The product will only be offered in states where sports betting is not yet legal, according to Flutter CEO Peter Jackson, during the company’s recent earnings call. In addition, it will not be available on tribal lands in the U.S.
Flutter, the Irish-American company that owns FanDuel, considers the platform an immediate growth opportunity. Jackson stated that the product’s potential exists solely in states without existing FanDuel sportsbook operations, where prediction markets currently have little influence.
Under the partnership, CME Group, the world’s largest derivatives exchange, will receive 50% of FanDuel Predicts’ gross revenue.
The Rise of Prediction Market Wagering
The launch follows similar offerings from gaming companies and crypto exchanges, including DraftKings and Coinbase.
Prediction markets began in academic settings but have gained traction after Polymarket and Kalshi achieved success during the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Both platforms handled hundreds of millions of dollars in trades in the months leading up to the vote. Volumes dropped briefly after the election but returned strongly as the U.S. sports season began.
Data from Dune Analytics shows that weekly notional volume for prediction markets reached around $2 billion in November, rising to $3 billion last week, largely driven by sports events.
Regulation and Legal Challenges
The growth of prediction markets has also drawn attention from state regulators. Several companies have disputed with local gaming authorities over their power to regulate these markets.
While most prediction market products are licensed by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), state gaming commissions question whether the federal agency alone has authority over these companies. On October 24, the New York Gaming Commission issued a cease-and-desist letter to Kalshi, citing operations in the state without a license.
With FanDuel Predicts, CME Group and FanDuel expand the availability of prediction markets in the U.S., offering users new ways to wager while regulators work to balance innovation and legal compliance.