SOL at $110—are you going to sell at a loss?
SOL crashed from 122 to 105, with the ETF seeing outflows for three consecutive days, but Samsung just announced that 82 million phones support Solana payments—and just now, daily active addresses surged to 1.88 million, a 13-month high. Is this ultimately a golden buying opportunity or merely a continuation of the downtrend?
First, the surface picture: the price is fluctuating narrowly between 108.5 and 112, RSI is at 44, and the price is below MA20, indicating short-term bearishness. Trading volume is shrinking, and the Bollinger Bands have narrowed to an extreme—an omen of an imminent breakout, either upward or downward. But there really isn't much room left to the downside.
First: the ETF sees several million in outflows, you panic and sell at a loss, and institutions happily take your chips.
The U.S. spot SOL ETF has seen net outflows for several consecutive days, including $3.76 million on October 9. Sounds scary? But look at the cumulative figures—net inflows still stand at $1.58 billion, with AUM at $1.73 billion.
Several million in outflows is called “profit-taking,” not “institutions fleeing.” The real big money is quietly accumulating in the 105-108 range. You fear a break below 100; institutions fear they haven't bought enough.
Samsung's wallet will support cross-border USDC payments on Solana by the end of October, covering 82 million U.S. Galaxy devices. Securitize is bringing tokenized Apple and Nvidia shares onto Solana.
This isn't hype; it's real adoption. While you're still looking at the candlesticks in panic, institutions are already looking at real-world deployment.
Second: SIMD-0525 is live, and Solana is quietly changing its engine.
Slot times have been reduced to 200ms, and block production speed has doubled, paving the way for Alpenglow. Don't understand? In plain English:
Faster transactions and stronger finality
Network congestion becomes a thing of the past
Institutional-grade applications can now confidently go on-chain
Daily active addresses reached 1.88 million, a 13-month high. DEX trading volume is at the $2.6 billion level, while stablecoins and RWA continue to expand.
The price fell, but the number of users increased. This is called “falling prices with rising volume,” a typical divergence in the early stages of a bull market. You see risk; I see chips changing hands.
Third: Technical compression has reached an extreme, and a breakout is imminent.
The 108.5-112 range has already been consolidating for several days. The Bollinger Bands are narrowing and trading volume is shrinking—this is the calm before the storm.
Key levels:
Support: 108.5 → 107.4 → 105-106 (strong support; a break below points to 100-102)
Resistance: 112-112.6 → 115-116 → 119-120 → 124
A sustained move above 112.6 with rising volume would target 116-120 directly. Losing 108.5 could accelerate a bottom test at 105.
But remember—the 105-108 zone is strong support that has held through multiple previous tests. The probability of a breakdown is far lower than the probability of a rebound.
Bulls versus bears—you decide
On one side:
ETF outflows for consecutive days, with institutions staying on the sidelines in the short term
Some large-scale unstaking, creating expected selling pressure
The Federal Reserve raised rates to 3.75-4%, keeping macro conditions tight
The October 14 CPI data brings significant uncertainty
On the other side:
Samsung's 82 million devices support USDC payments, representing real adoption
Tokenized U.S. stocks on Solana, bringing the RWA narrative to fruition
SIMD-0525 is live, performance has doubled, and Alpenglow is on the way
Daily active addresses reached 1.88 million, a 13-month high
Cumulative ETF net inflows of $1.58 billion, with institutions continuing their long-term allocations
The 105-108 strong support zone has held multiple times historically
The key level is 110, just $1.5 away from the 108.5 line of life and death.
Upside resistance: 112.6 (breakout confirmation) → 116-120 → 124
Downside support: 108.5 (last line of defense) → 105-106 → 100-102
Trading strategy
Short-term traders:
Take a small long position at 108.5-109, with a stop-loss at 107.5 and a target of 112-113. Add to the position on a break above 112.6, targeting 116-120. If 108.5 breaks on rising volume, turn bearish or stay on the sidelines in the short term, targeting 105-106. Don't chase in the middle of the range; wait for the edges.
Swing traders:
Build positions in batches between 105-108, with a stop-loss below 105 for the core position. Target 120 → 130+, provided BTC stabilizes and ETF outflows stop. Entering now means enduring the grind, but only those who can endure it will be qualified to capture the main rally.
Long-term believers:
If you believe in the Solana ecosystem (upgrades + ETF + RWA + Samsung), scoop up the tokens below 110 with your eyes closed. Target 150-250 in the second half of 2026. But the prerequisite is that you can tolerate another 10% in unrealized losses.
SOL now resembles ETH in 2024—
The ETF was approved, institutions bought, yet the price fell. Everyone called it “garbage,” and then it doubled a few months later.
But there is one difference: ETH has Pectra, while SOL has Alpenglow; ETH has L2s, while SOL has Firedancer. Essentially, neither is stronger—the question is only which one falls to a cheaper price.
It's not that Solana is failing; it's that you chased the rally at 122 and sold at a loss at 108.
Institutions accumulate during ETF outflows, while you collapse during range-bound trading.
Samsung's 82 million devices support USDC, yet you hand your chips to the market makers at $110.#Gate亮相TOKEN2049 #Ledger事件损失近9000万 #GateWCTCS9全球交易赛 $BTC $ETH $SOL