Duo-jun, are you okay? This morning’s plunge saw 105112 liquidations over 24 hours, totaling $550 million. Long positions accounted for $480 million of the liquidations, while shorts accounted for just over $60 million. Simply put, all those who previously bought the dip or chased the rally by opening long positions were wiped out in this plunge. This drop was all about targeted hunting of longs! 1. Short-term market confidence has been completely crushed. Funds that originally wanted to enter and buy the dip are now staying on the sidelines, afraid to go long easily; 2. A large number of long stop-loss orders above were triggered, effectively clearing out the long positions above and releasing concentrated short-term selling pressure; 3. Market sentiment has turned bearish. Going forward, as long as there is even a slight rebound, trapped positions will take the opportunity to exit, so the rebound will most likely be weak. But note: Liquidations do not mean an immediate reversal and rise. The crypto market’s classic playbook is to push up slightly after killing the longs to lure in new longs, then launch a second wave of declines. The current price is around 841, and the market is now in a brief breather after the plunge. The first short-term resistance is 852. To truly reverse the weakness, the price must hold above 852. If it rebounds to this level but fails to break through, this recovery will be a bull trap within the downtrend, and the market will continue probing lower. The key support is 832, which is the current lifeline. Hold above 832, and the market will enter a low-level range-bound consolidation, repeatedly forming wicks and shaking out positions. Break below 832, and it means this sell-off is not over. The market will continue probing around 820, and a new round of declines will begin. Bitcoin is currently at 838 and Ethereum at 2605. The lightly positioned long trades are currently profitable, and we will choose when to exit based on actual market conditions.$BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC突破86000美元关口 #SOL现货ETF单日净流出924万美元 #

Bitcoin at $84,000—are you cutting your losses? More than $360 million in long positions were liquidated in 10 minutes, the ETF just flipped to a $90 million outflow, oil surged to $101, and Treasury yields spiked to 5.31%—BTC plunged from $86,600 to $83,560 and is now stuck at $84,000 near the bottom of the range. Is this a precursor to a crash, or the final shakeout by major players using macro news? First, the surface picture: During one hour of the Asian morning session, BTC was slammed from $85,600 to $83,560, then barely bounced back to $84,000–$84,200. It is down 1.5% over 24 hours, with $550 million liquidated across the market, including $480 million in long positions. The candlesticks tell you this: the range is $83,000–$87,000, and you are now standing at the bottom. A daily close below $82,600 would put $80,000 next—but $84,000 is still just above the lifeline. This is not a crash structure; it is a liquidation sweep. First point: this drop was not a crypto bomb—it was caused by oil. Iran has accelerated attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, sending Brent crude to $101.5. The dollar strengthened, and the 10-year Treasury yield surged to 5.31%. In plain English: Money is flowing from risk assets into safe havens. BTC is taking the first hit as liquidity is drained. Sounds scary? Have you thought about this—when the Russia-Ukraine war began in 2022, oil surged to $130 and BTC fell from $44,000 to $34,000. What happened afterward? Six months later, it returned to $48,000. Geopolitical conflict has never been a death sentence for BTC; it only drains liquidity in the short term. What truly kills BTC has always been Fed rate hikes and leverage bubbles, not oil tankers. More importantly, during this drop, $360 million in long positions were liquidated in 10 minutes, and $550 million over 24 hours—leverage has already been flushed out to a significant extent. Those who were going to be liquidated have been liquidated, and those who were going to cut losses have done so. What remains are the strong hands. Stop-loss orders are stacked below $84,000, so this drop was fast—but fast drops often correspond to fast rebounds. Second point: ETF flows turned negative by $90 million, but cumulative net inflows still stand at $57.7 billion. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $90 million in net outflows on Monday, after inflows over the previous two days. Many people panic when they see this figure. What is $90 million in the face of $57.7 billion in cumulative net inflows? A drop in the ocean. Short-term ETF inflows and outflows are normal. What truly determines the long-term direction is the broader trend in institutional allocation. BlackRock and others are not trading short-term; they are building positions. A $90 million outflow in one day, just like a $90 million inflow in one day, has no impact on the long-term trend. Retail traders watch daily fund flows to make decisions, while institutions watch annual allocation ratios when adding to positions. That is the difference. The minutes of the Fed’s September meeting are released tonight, and that is the source of the next wave of volatility. Hawkish minutes, and $84,000 gets tested again; dovish minutes, and it bounces straight back to $86,000. Third point: The post-halving supply contraction is something no one can change. After the halving, fewer new BTC are produced each day, and supply continues to contract. The hashrate shows no abnormalities, and the network is healthy. At $84,000, you are buying the fact that “the bottom of the range is still holding,” not “a 33% retracement will be immediately repaired.” From the $126,000 ATH to now, the decline is 33%—historically, every pullback of 30% or more looks, in hindsight, like an opportunity to get in, not a signal to run for your life. In 2021, BTC fell from $69,000 to $29,000, a 58% decline. Everyone shouted, “The bear market is here.” Then, after the 2024 halving, it surged to $126,000. Every major pullback builds momentum for the next all-time high. This time is no different; most people simply cannot endure it. The bull-bear battle—judge for yourself On one side: Leverage has been heavily flushed out; $360 million was liquidated in 10 minutes, releasing selling pressure Cumulative ETF net inflows stand at $57.7 billion; the long-term institutional allocation trend remains unchanged Supply is contracting after the halving, and scarcity is only increasing $84,000 is above the structural lifeline at $82,600; key support has not broken On the other side: Oil at $101 and Treasuries at 5.31% are pressuring the market in the short term ETFs flipped to $90 million in outflows on Monday, weakening short-term liquidity Tonight’s Fed minutes could be hawkish A daily close below $82,600 would put $80,000 next The key level is $84,000, just $1,400 above the $82,600 lifeline. Above: $85,000–$85,500 (the platform lost today) → $86,500–$87,000 (five-to-six-day supply) → $90,000 Below: $83,500–$83,800 (today’s low) → $83,000–$82,600 (structural lifeline) → $80,000 Trading strategy (no fluff) Aggressive: At most, try a very small long position near $84,000, with a stop-loss at $83,200. First target: $85,000; second target: $85,500. Take half off at $84,800. Do not add before the minutes. Conservative (recommended for most people): Wait for $83,000–$83,300 before considering an entry, with a stop-loss at $82,200. An even better option is to wait for a reclaim of $85,000 before following in. If the setup does not appear, stay flat—there is no shame in that. Being flat is also a position. Breakout: Only consider chasing if price holds above $87,000 on strong volume and holds $85,500 on the retest, with a target of $90,000. Those conditions are not in place now, so do not fantasize. Shorts: If a rebound to $84,500–$85,000 lacks strength, take a small short on the pullback, with a stop-loss at $85,600 and targets at $83,500 and $82,600. Do not blindly short around $83,000—that is asking to get burned. Position-sizing rules: Risk no more than 2% of total capital on any single trade, and use no more than 3x leverage. Today, a 10-minute move was enough to wipe out a chunk of long positions. Do not use money you cannot afford to lose to gamble on a market move you cannot afford to get wrong. Risk-control priorities (memorize these): Daily close below $82,600 → reduce positions; next target is $80,000 Hawkish minutes or another oil spike → reduce leverage first If ETFs continue recording outflows this week → $84,000 will likely be tested again BTC now looks like its July 2021 self— It plunged from $69,000 to $29,000, everyone shouted, “The bear market is here,” and then it hit a new high four months later. You do not dare hold BTC at $84,000. When BTC reaches $150,000 in 2027, will you want to slap yourself? It turns out BTC was not the problem—you were scared out of your positions by macro news every time. $84,000 is where the bottom of the range was hit by oil and liquidations, not the starting point of the main uptrend. What you can do is defend $83,000 or wait for a reclaim of $85,000, not go all-in at a round-number level. Watch two things: whether $83,500 can hold, and what tonight’s minutes say. #OneGate见证计划 #GT三季度销毁近200万枚 #CFTC拟设加密资产市场新类别 $BTC $ETH $SOL

ZEC, 1270 is strong support, 1400 is resistance It is relatively suitable for swing trading now. If 1300 holds, you can get in. They’ve all passed the ETF—what is there to fear? At worst, hold it with low leverage and treat it as a spot position. Keep some funds in reserve to add to the position. Volatility is expected only around the U.S. trading session. Wait patiently and exchange time for room.#SOL现货ETF单日净流出924万美元