The Fed’s hawkish voices are growing louder, and rate cuts are moving further away Warsh stayed quiet; Williams stepped up. The Fed’s No. 3, New York Fed President John Williams, who has a permanent voting seat, extinguished the market’s last bit of hope last night with one sentence: “Inflation is much too high… We still have a lot of work to do to get monetary policy back to an appropriate stance.” In plain English: stop guessing whether there’ll be a cut in December. The question is how many hikes there’ll be. The market has already voted with real money. Interest-rate futures are now pricing in 25-basis-point hikes in December, January next year, and March next year. Deutsche Bank forecasts a “triple hike,” pushing the federal funds rate to 4.50%–4.75%. CME data shows about a 90% probability of a 25-bp hike in December and a 0% probability of no change. Just a few weeks ago, the market was still pricing in rate cuts in 2027. Core CPI rose 0.3% month over month in October, above expectations for the third consecutive month. Headline CPI rose 0.4% month over month, also above expectations. Goolsbee’s exact words were “uncomfortably close to a critical point.” Hammack said monetary policy needs to shift to a “restrictive stance.” The most devastating blow came from Waller. The market used to classify him as a dove. He had previously said that if October inflation exceeded expectations, a one-time 50-basis-point hike in December could be considered. And then the data really did come in hotter than expected. Even the doves are starting to discuss 50 bps. But for the crypto market, the shift in expectations alone is already painful enough. Look at the prices: BTC fell below $70,000, touching a low of around $67,470; ETH fell below $1,900. Over the past 24 hours, about $1.64 billion in crypto positions were liquidated, including about $916 million in BTC contracts and $289 million in ETH contracts. This isn’t just a technical pullback. The dollar index is strengthening, rate expectations are rising, risk assets are under pressure, and leveraged longs are being forced out en masse. Until now, people were betting that rate cuts would bring liquidity and were willing to buy the future early; now the market fears that high rates will stay in place longer, and investors are recalculating risk. Rate-cut expectations are fuel for a bull market; rate-hike expectations could become a death sentence for leveraged positions. But it would be wrong to declare the crypto bull market over. What truly warrants caution is that if inflation remains stubborn and rate expectations continue to rise, BTC will find it hard to stay insulated on its own narrative alone. Keep an eye on three things next: First, inflation and jobs data ahead of the December meeting will determine whether the Fed has reason to keep tightening. Second, whether the dollar and Treasury yields continue to strengthen, which affects the cost of capital for global risk assets. Third, whether BTC can regain its footing after falling below $70,000. If the rebound lacks volume and ETF funds continue flowing out, the market may have to go through another round of deleveraging. The cruelest thing about the market is that it won’t wait for you to admit you were wrong before it starts falling. Warsh stayed quiet because he knew this wouldn’t be pleasant to hear. Williams said it because if he didn’t, the market would end up much worse off. When the Fed’s centrists start describing inflation as “a lot of work to do,” what you should do is not guess which meeting will bring a pause. It’s accept one fact: the rate-hike cycle is much longer than you think. And your leveraged position may not survive until it ends.#黄仁勋辞职 #Gate直通IPO第三期Anthropic #Dr.Han牛津辩论社演讲 $BTC $ETH $SOL $NVDA

eth

1. A multimillion-dollar off-exchange buy order appeared on LINK-USDT. Over seven days, one address spent about $15.12 million to buy 1.405 million $LINK, with the funds traced to Revolut’s custodial wallet on Coinbase. It was likely an OTC trade, as the order book showed little trading volume. 2. The position is already down $1 million. That’s a sizable loss, but normal fluctuation relative to the $15.12 million principal, suggesting the entry price was close to market price—not a bottom-fishing move. 3. The key is whether it adds to the position. It bought 1.405 million tokens over seven days at a steady pace. If it keeps buying even as the unrealized loss grows, that would be a real signal; if it stops, it was just a test. A large OTC order in a single token is unlikely to move the market on its own; the direction of $BTC $ETH also matters. Watch: LINK-USDT, BTC-USDT, ETH-USDT, BNB-USDT