After muting the group for three days, I realized how anxious I had been after being bombarded every day with the phrase “unlock-related selling pressure.” Now, when I see a calendar notification, I can actually calmly think about whether the selling pressure will be released linearly or as a cliff, and whether the team will dump immediately after the unlock—before, I never had time to think; my fingers had already panicked first. Back to market making: recently, I moved an ETH/USDC position from uni v2 to a certain concentrated liquidity pool, setting a fairly aggressive price range in hopes of earning fees. But once volatility hit, the IL was much harsher than I expected. After running the numbers, it turned out I would have been better off simply lending the assets. I used to think an AMM curve was a mathematical guarantee; now I understand that no matter how elegant the curve is, the location of your position is the critical factor. Anyway, that’s it for now. I’ll adjust the parameters after this unlock season passes. I still haven’t deleted the smart contract audit report, though I barely understood a few lines of it—just having it there gives me peace of mind.

# Bitmine further increases holdings past 6.01 million ETH #每周来晒 Bitmine holds nearly 5%ETH—the stimulant of bull markets and the black swan of bear markets Bitmine has replicated MicroStrategy MSTR’s Bitcoin treasury model and fully transplanted it onto Ethereum: 66 consecutive weeks of weekly dollar-cost averaging have brought its holdings to 6.0164 million ETH, or 4.9% of the total supply. 84% of its holdings have already been staked, generating approximately $360 million in annual cash flow from staking rewards, without needing to sell ETH to keep the company operating. It is only about 80k ETH short of its 5% target, nearly reaching its “Alchemy of 5%” strategic milestone. The entire crypto market is now speculating about Bitmine’s next move: will it keep buying, or sell into strength? Little God of Wealth believes that, as the market is still in the early stages of a bull market, there is no need to worry too much for now. Instead, investors can watch for when it sells, treating that as a sign that the bull market has ended. This 5% holding is a time bomb in a bear market: ✅Positive factors 1. Significantly tightening the market’s liquid float More than six million ETH are largely locked up in long-term staking, compressing the amount of circulating supply that can actually flow into exchanges for sale. Unlike ETFs, where ETF shares belong to clients and can be redeemed and sold at any time, Bitmine’s holdings are the company’s own treasury. After purchasing, it aims to hold them long term and will not be forced to dump as retail investors redeem. Continued weekly buying provides ETH with a sustained demand base and is also one of the core pillars of this institutional narrative. 2. The business model forms a closed loop Funding mainly comes from equity financing, with almost no debt. Interest generated from staking ETH covers preferred dividends and other operating expenses, forming a cycle of “raise funds to buy ETH → stake it to earn yield → continue raising funds to increase holdings.” If this model proves successful, it will encourage more U.S.-listed companies to follow suit and build ETH treasuries, further expanding the potential for institutional allocation. 3. Strengthening the market’s long-term bullish narrative Tom Lee has publicly expressed optimism about ETH, believing it could reach the $10,000 level within 1–2 years. Uninterrupted buying for 66 weeks and this disciplined dollar-cost averaging will reinforce institutions’ perception of ETH as a reserve asset and encourage some institutions currently on the sidelines to increase their allocations, Securities Star. ⚠️Risks that cannot be ignored (these are the key points traders should watch) 1. A single institution controls nearly 5% of the total supply, magnifying concentration risk A publicly listed company holding nearly 5% of all ETH has never occurred in Ethereum’s history. The Ethereum community has always emphasized decentralization. With such a large proportion of the supply concentrated in a single U.S.-listed public company, regulatory and community controversy will only intensify. If U.S. regulators introduce new rules targeting listed companies’ holdings of crypto assets, the impact could be unpredictable. 2. What happens after the 5% target is reached? This is the biggest unknown The entire market is currently pricing in expectations of “continued buying,” but once the 5% target is completed, will Bitmine continue buying every week, stop increasing its holdings, or even reduce them into strength? If it stops dollar-cost averaging, the market will immediately lose a stable source of buying, making a “buy the expectation, sell the fact” move likely; If the stock price later falls or the company’s financial pressure increases, it cannot be ruled out that Bitmine will liquidate part of its ETH reserves. If several million ETH flow into the market, it would create enormous selling pressure. Although most of the holdings are currently locked in staking, staked ETH can be unlocked after a waiting period and is not permanently unsellable. 1. BMNR’s stock price is deeply tied to ETH, creating two-way resonance Bitmine stock is essentially a highly leveraged substitute for ETH. When ETH surges, BMNR’s stock price skyrockets, making it easier to issue more equity, raise additional funds, and continue buying ETH. Conversely, when ETH undergoes a deep correction, BMNR’s stock price crashes, its equity financing capacity suffers, and its ability to increase holdings is cut off, creating a negative cycle. This logic looks beautiful in a bull market, but in a bear market the two sides amplify each other’s damage. 2. Do not deify the idea of “never selling” The company’s public narrative is long-term holding, but it is a commercial public company whose first responsibility is to its shareholders. In extreme market conditions, under debt pressure, or amid shareholder redemption demands, its commitment to long-term holding can be adjusted. Historically, many crypto treasury institutions have sold reserve assets under pressure. 📊How to interpret the impact on ETH’s price action Medium term: As long as weekly accumulation continues, it will provide ongoing support for demand and benefit the bullish ETH narrative; the rising staking ratio will also continue to reduce the effective circulating supply. In the short term, beware of a “realization of expectations” move: once 5% is officially reached and the expectation is realized, the market could easily see profit-taking even if the fundamentals remain unchanged. Futures traders should note: this news is already a widely known public development that has been broadly priced in. Do not blindly go long simply because “Bitmine is buying”; instead, combine it with other indicators such as ETF flows, the macro dollar environment, staking outflows, and exchange inventories for cross-validation. $ETH