First, looking at the market, a clear pullback emerged after the nonfarm payrolls data was released, with the price falling from 82282 to 78618 and the short-term bullish rhythm taking a hit. From the weekend through today, the market has maintained narrow-range oscillation between 79000‑80500. Overall trading volume has contracted somewhat, selling pressure has been released, but incremental buying has not clearly entered. On the one-hour timeframe, the price has repeatedly moved around the Bollinger midline, with resistance at 80187 and near-term support at 79518. The range for fluctuations is limited, and neither bulls nor bears have established a sustained trend.
On the four-hour timeframe, the repair structure characterized by rising lows remains intact, but the previous high at 82282 is a key resistance level. Before it is effectively broken, this upward move can only be classified as a corrective recovery following the pullback.
The macro news environment will be the core driver of the market going forward. The nonfarm payrolls data has already been released and absorbed by the market. Market attention is currently focused on the upcoming CPI inflation data. Federal Reserve officials have also stated publicly that subsequent policy adjustments will depend to a large extent on the inflation data. If inflation exceeds expectations, expectations for tighter policy will strengthen further; if inflation cools, policy expectations will ease, providing the market with the conditions for further upward recovery. The September 16 rate meeting and dot plot are also upcoming, and will provide guidance on monetary policy for the subsequent period. Therefore, before the CPI results are released, most institutional funds are inclined to remain on the sidelines and will not actively deploy large positions.
Overall, the current phase combines technical consolidation and recovery with waiting for macroeconomic news. The 79000‑81000 range will most likely hold until the CPI data is released. From an observation standpoint, it is not advisable to trade within the middle of the range. As a rebound approaches 81000‑82282, focus on how the price responds to resistance; on a pullback to 79000‑79500, monitor the strength of buying support. Before important macroeconomic data is released, it is advisable to control position size and wait until the data is released before making further judgments based on the market’s actual signals.
Risk warning: The above is only an objective observation of market technicals and macroeconomic information and does not constitute any investment advice.$BTC $ETH #美国8月非农超预期