$BTC 7.4 Evening Thoughts Sharing
The white market has been oscillating and grinding sideways all day, with the price firmly stuck in the 62300-63000 range, pulling back and forth. Neither bulls nor bears have managed to break through effectively, making a unilateral trend unlikely in the short term. Judging from the overall structure, the adjustment pressure on the market has not been fully released, and the need for a pullback and repair has always existed. The operational approach remains unchanged, still focusing on shorting at highs as the core strategy. Chasing longs directly at the current position carries significant risk, with dense resistance above; small rallies lack continuity, and blindly going long could easily lead to being trapped, with risk far outweighing potential gains. It's much safer to wait for a rebound high and then lay out short positions.$ETH
Combining the 1-hour and 4-hour charts, after BTC surged to the high of 62957, its upward momentum has significantly weakened. The 4-hour chart continues to oscillate narrowly between 62300-63000, while the 1-hour chart shows a sideways grinding pattern. The bulls lack the strength to break through continuously, and the short-term upside space is basically capped. Capital flows show a clear divergence signal: contract CVD continues to hit new highs, with speculative funds madly piling into longs; spot CVD peaked and then declined, with spot whales distributing their positions during the rally. The divergence between long and short capital is intensifying, and the risk of a pullback continues to accumulate. Currently, the market is extremely overcrowded with bullish sentiment, with a large number of retail traders chasing longs. The funding rate remains high, long-side chips are overly concentrated, and incremental buy orders can hardly sustain prices. With multiple signals resonating, the probability of a market pullback and adjustment is extremely high. The cost-effectiveness of chasing longs at highs is very low, and it's easy to suffer a rapid retracement. In operation, short on rebounds, do not blindly follow the crowd to go long, and wait for the rebound to hit resistance levels before laying out short positions.
Saturday Evening Trading Strategy
BTC: Short near 62700-63200, target 60500
ETH: Short near 1760-1780, target 1720#非农爆冷打压加息预期