Trump vs. the Fed: A Cognitive War of “The Better the Data, the More the Market Falls” Last night, U.S. stocks, gold, and Bitcoin all plunged. The Dow fell, gold broke below $4,400, and Bitcoin instantly crashed through $80k from $81,600. Just after the data was released, Trump posted a message praising August nonfarm payrolls as “excellent”—up 162k, versus expectations of just 56k, nearly twice as much. In theory, with the economy doing so well, stocks should rise. But what happened? S&P 500 futures fell, the dollar index surged to 99.93, and the September rate-hike probability shown by CME FedWatch jumped directly from 50% to above 60%. The better the data → the stronger the rate-hike expectations → the more stocks fall. The market tore Trump's chain of logic to pieces right in front of him. His anger is understandable—in his world, this system is broken. He wrote a passage on Truth Social that is worth reading word for word: “How crazy is this? We just released very good jobs data, and the market should be going up. But, as has happened for the past 25 years, the stock market went down because we live in a false reality: If things are good, you have to ‘kill it’ because you are ‘afraid’ of inflation. It should be exactly the opposite, and that is how it was until 25 years ago.” Then he stated his conclusion in all caps: “GROWTH DOES NOT CAUSE INFLATION!” He also said that U.S. GDP growth “should be at 15% and 20%, instead of 2%, 3%, and 4%.” But this is not an economics debate; it is election rhetoric. There are less than two months until the midterm elections. Voters’ dissatisfaction with high inflation is the central issue in the election. Trump's logic is simple: Rate cuts → looser credit → the economy feels better → voters are happy → more people vote for me. As for the economic principles that strong employment data supports rate hikes and that rate cuts could push inflation higher—those economic arguments have to take a back seat to the election. Vice President Vance had already laid the groundwork on September 3, publicly calling on the Fed to cut rates. This is systematic messaging, not a spur-of-the-moment decision. What is the most ironic part? Fed Chair Warsh is someone Trump personally nominated. But just a week ago, Warsh hinted at Jackson Hole that “rate hikes could soon re-enter the policy options.” The person he nominated is contradicting him. Trump responded by directly posting a threat: “Cut rates, or I will stop trading with countries that run trade surpluses with the United States.” Last year, the total U.S. trade deficit with all trading partners was $1.2 trillion. If he really did this, it would essentially mean the United States withdrawing from the global trading system. Trump is laying the groundwork for major rate cuts. He did the math: “Every 1 percentage point increase in interest rates costs the United States an additional $650 billion per year.” Pay attention to how this figure has changed. In June, when he made his demand, it was $800 billion; now it has become $650 billion. This shows that the White House economic team is adjusting its estimates of the rate path, rather than simply repeating a slogan. If the rate cuts succeed, BTC will see a second wave of the “policy bull market.” But the problem is that the market may not believe the theory that “growth does not cause inflation” at all. If inflation data rebounds, the Fed may be forced to maintain high rates or even continue raising them. Trump's calls may instead become a contrarian indicator for the market. When the president is shouting, “Cut rates! Cut rates!” the market is shouting, “Raise rates! Raise rates!” Of the two voices, only one is casting votes with real money. Last night’s market action has already given you the answer.#美国8月非农超预期 #Gate用户突破6000万 #BTC收复8万美元 $BTC $ETH $XAU

ETH’s capital inflows have been incredibly strong this round! On September 3 alone, net holdings increased by over 60k ETH, fully recovering the previous day’s outflows and adding another 27k. Cumulative inflows this week reached 86.8k ETH, while the past 7 days saw a massive 269k ETH, and September got off to a 34.8k ETH increase. Funds are stepping in whenever prices fall, showing that investors still recognize ETH’s portfolio value. However, the current momentum is mainly driven by leading products, so concentration is somewhat high. ETH ETFs have seen cumulative inflows of 175.3k ETH so far this year, outperforming BTC. Do you think this enthusiasm for inflows can continue? $BTC $ETH

Saturday morning ETH outlook Long: If the pullback holds at 2430-2435, cautiously try a long with a small position, targeting 2470-2480, stop at 2415 Short: If a rebound to 2480-2490 meets resistance and stalls, cautiously try a short with a small position, targeting 2440-2430, stop at 2505 Today, ETH is following BTC in a high-level consolidation, with a short-term bearish bias, but a rebound remains possible as long as 2430 holds. In one sentence: ETH is more volatile than BTC, so there are opportunities for both longs and shorts, but wait for key levels before entering—don't chase $ETH #美国8月非农超预期