BTC has been stuck around $60k for five full weeks, and both bulls and bears are holding their big moves How long has it been since you looked at the charts? Open your market app, and Bitcoin is still at $62,000-$66,000. Five weeks ago, it was at $63,000. Five weeks later, it is still at $63,000. The high has failed multiple tests at $65,500, while the low stubbornly holds above $62,000. Daily fluctuations are below 2%. Volatility has fallen to multi-year lows. Weekend liquidity is so tight it is suffocating. The entire market feels like someone has pressed the pause button. Retail investors are going crazy. “Boring,” “dead time,” “numb from the volatility”—these are the words you have heard most over the past month. But I want to tell you one thing: The market is often most boring when you can least afford to be distracted. The latest report from 10x Research points out that Bitcoin trading volume has fallen to a fraction of its levels after the U.S. presidential inauguration and during the peak of last October’s flash crash, while prices have entered their narrowest trading range in months. Historically, similar low-volatility conditions have usually been difficult to sustain for long. Low volatility is often followed by high volatility. Not moving now does not mean never moving. Will the direction be up or down? The bulls have cards in hand. Last week, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw combined net inflows of $1.1 billion, ending the net outflow trend since 2026 began. Of that, $865 million flowed into BTC and $243 million into ETH. Even more explosive—UBS increased its IBIT call options from 80k to 1.95 million in the second quarter, a 24-fold surge. Its direct holdings of IBIT also increased by 12%. A Swiss bank with a 160-year history is making a major options bet on BTC rising. The bears have cards too. The total market capitalization of stablecoins fell from $321 billion in May to around $305 billion on August 16, a 5% decline and the third-largest pullback in history. USDT and USDC have continued to see outflows. Purchasing power is retreating. Strategy, once the market’s most consistent buyer, has been on the selling side for four consecutive weeks. From August 10 to 14, Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of approximately $329 million. Some are accumulating, while others are fleeing. The market has never been this divided. Moreover, money is quietly flowing in one direction— ETH. Data from DWF Labs shows that Ethereum ETFs have continued to outperform Bitcoin ETFs since June. In July, ETH ETF net inflows accounted for 3.19% of fund assets, while BTC ETFs saw just 0.34%—the former was 9.4 times the latter. Institutional interest in ETH is returning. What does this mean? The market is asking one question: If BTC continues moving sideways, will money flow into ETH? Here is the painful truth: Five weeks of sideways trading does not mean the market is resting—it means the market is holding a big move in reserve. Both bulls and bears are stockpiling ammunition. UBS is using options to bet on the upside. Stablecoin outflows are suppressing the upside. ETFs saw large inflows last week, followed by large outflows this week. Who will win? Keep an eye on two indicators: First, can ETFs record consecutive net inflows? $1.1 billion came in last week, but BTC barely rose. If inflows continue for several weeks, that would be different. Second, can stablecoin outflows bottom out? Without purchasing power returning, prices cannot rise. Once these two signals resonate—it will be the moment the market breaks. #标普500首次冲破7800点 #我的七夕交易分享 #SpaceX超级股东曝光股价反弹40% $BTC $ETH $SOL

Gold is currently trading below 4400. If it fails to break upward, I will try a small short position, targeting 4380. Conversely, if the bulls gain strength and hold above 4415, go long with the trend, targeting 4430–4450. The short-term overall bias is bullish. Watch 4350 and 4300 for support below, with the key resistance above at 4450. $BTC $ETH $XAU

8.17 Monday morning gold outlook Retail sales data weakened significantly last Friday, boosting rate-cut expectations, and gold prices bottomed out and recovered. Today, Monday, gold remains relatively strong at high levels during the Asian session, with prices oscillating between 4370‑4395 as bulls and bears engage in intense trading near the previous high. Technically, the current price is around 4395. Short-term resistance above is at 4395‑4420. Only a strong-volume break and hold above this range would create an opportunity to challenge the all-time high of 4449 again. The intraday short-term watershed is 4360, with core strong support at 4320‑4340. Sell short at 4400-4420, targets 4360-4320$BTC $ETH $SOL