August 1 BTC/ETH Market Daily Report | Is High-Side Pressure Not Lifted Yet, and Does the Bounce Still Offer a Chance to Set Up Shorts?
“The Jiang Feng Trading Diary,” Episode 19
The article contains specific trading strategies—read patiently for a surprise!
The market never changes its trend because of a single candlestick. What truly drives price is the change in capital, liquidity, and market expectations.
Yesterday’s recap: BTC rebounded yesterday, topping at 65,391, then started to fall rapidly. The low touched 62,410. This also neatly aligns with the high short at 65,300 on the 30th—now, after having already been prompted to cut down and lock in profit, and with the break-even stop in place, we continue to play the game!
Today’s price has rebounded to around 63,000. The 18th episode’s 64,700 short didn’t give an entry opportunity yesterday. Currently, we hold the 17th episode’s 65,300 high short after reducing, the 14th episode’s 65,700 high short, and the 10th episode’s 66,900 high short. Position sizes have basically been reduced; after locking in profits, we’ve also added break-even protection!

First, today’s view: The high-short idea remains unchanged—participate with light positions. Risk index: 🌟🌟☆☆☆
📌 Ethereum: (1900~1930) short on the first tranche, and add shorts at 1958~1977
🏁 Targets: 1850~1800
🏁 Targets: 1760~1730
🏁 Target: 1690
📌 Bitcoin: short on the first tranche around 64,000~64,500, and add shorts around 65,200~66,200
🏁 Targets: 62,500~61,300
🏁 Target: 60,500~59,000
⚠️: Pay attention to position sizing—don’t go all-in with a heavy bet. Participate with light positions; slow and steady!

Now let’s talk about recent market sentiment and the trading logic!
Many friends see the price rebound and start to think the market has turned bullish again. But based on the current market environment, overhead resistance is still obvious. In the short term, the rebound is more like digesting the downside pressure from the earlier drop, not a complete trend reversal.
Yesterday, the spot Bitcoin ETF saw net outflows, with the daily outflow amount reaching $265.4 million. ETF capital has been one of the important forces pushing Bitcoin higher this year. When institutional capital keeps flowing in, the market tends to form an uptrend; but when the ETF shows continuous outflows, near-term buying power will be weakened.
Also, the U.S. Treasury market is sending pressure signals. Currently, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield continues to rise, topping out near 4.74%. Rising Treasury yields mean the market’s expectations for keeping interest rates high strengthen. That will create some suppression for risk assets. The crypto market, as a high-volatility risk asset, is especially sensitive to changes in liquidity.

Changes in Fed rate-cut expectations—market still stays cautious
According to CME FedWatch data: probability of a 25 bps rate hike in September: 67%, probability of a 25 bps rate hike in October: 56.5%, probability of a 50 bps rate hike in October: 20.8%. Although the market still has different expectations, currently the capital remains cautious about the Fed policy path. Until rate-cut expectations become clearer, risk assets want a quick breakout above resistance—they need stronger capital support.

BTC technical analysis
At present, Bitcoin is trading around $64,000. From the daily chart structure, after today’s slight rebound, the price has returned to the key resistance zone.
The 64,000~64,500 area above is the first resistance level for the short term.
If the rebound strength continues to increase: the 65,200~66,200 area will become the second resistance zone. Here there are not only traders trapped in earlier entries, but it’s also a key defensive area for the shorts. Therefore, unless there is an effective breakout and hold above it, my personal mindset remains the same: rebound short is the main plan, and don’t chase the rally.
ETH technical analysis
Ethereum’s recent performance has been relatively stronger than BTC, but it is still constrained by overhead resistance.
What to watch:
📌 First resistance: 1900~1930
📌 If it keeps rebounding: 1958~1977 is a key resistance zone. As long as price cannot effectively break through and hold, the overhead rebound can still be used to look for short opportunities.
The biggest risk in the current market isn’t that there’s no opportunity—it’s that many friends tend to chase price higher during the rally. Trading always needs to respect market structure. In an uptrend, look for pullback opportunities; in a downtrend, wait for rebound opportunities.
At this stage, I still choose to wait for price to rebound into the key resistance zones, then look for short opportunities.
But please note:
⚠️ The行情 has fluctuations. It’s not recommended to go all-in with a heavy position.
⚠️ Reasonably control position size and reduce leverage risk.
⚠️ The core of trading isn’t how much you can make in one go—it’s to survive steadily in the long run.
⚠️ The market always rewards people with patience, not the most aggressive ones.
“The Jiang Feng Trading Diary,” Episode 19: Candlesticks and indicators are the result of price, not the cause of price!
For personal market analysis and record only; not investment advice.
Written by: Jiang Feng Capital
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