October 14 BTC/ETH Mishen Strategy
Hello everyone, it’s Wednesday, and today is the main event of the week: at 20:30 tonight, the United States will release September CPI. This data will determine whether there will be a rate hike in October: CME data currently shows only about a 17% probability of an October hike. If core CPI comes in at just 0.2% month-on-month, the market will most likely expect a pause in October and wait until December; if it rises to 0.3%, rate-hike expectations will heat up significantly, and U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar may strengthen again. This is why prices become quieter as the data release approaches, yet are also more likely to suddenly change direction the moment the data lands.
So today I don’t want to predict the data; I only want to lay out the key levels: over the past few days, the price has been oscillating between the lower boundary around 81,000 and the 83,000-84,000 resistance zone. Before the data is released, which level will be hit first? Let’s look at the chart directly—
BTC: As you can see, yesterday formed a standard double-bottom pattern. The 80,220-81,700 support box has been effective, while the 83,780 midline resistance also played its role. You can use Mishen’s levels with confidence. Intraday, watch whether 83,780 can stabilize. If it cannot, and the price moves down to that level, will it break below 81,700 again? If it can stabilize, can it repair the 84,400-85,150 resistance box on the way up, and if so, how high can it surge? Watching the market with these two questions in mind will make it clear what you want! In terms of operations, yesterday formed a double-bottom structure. Assuming for now that the structure is valid, you can try adding to longs on an intraday pullback to around 81,700-82,300, using yesterday’s low of 81,000 as the defense level and betting on the double-bottom structure taking effect. Adding to shorts intraday is also easy to understand: 83,780 itself is resistance, so adding to shorts around here is fine. The defense level can be set at yesterday’s high of 84,100; if you think that range is too narrow, you can also place it around 84,400-85,150. The trade is based on the logic that the rebound lacks strength and cannot break through resistance. Mishen only provides ideas; the final decisions must be made by you. If you want to go further and higher on this path, you must have your own judgment. (See the chart for details.)
ETH: Yesterday also formed a double-bottom structure, so 2,380-2,420 is the support box below. The thinking is consistent with BTC: pay attention to the effect of an intraday pullback. As long as 2,420 is not broken, you can still try to bet on the W-bottom pattern remaining valid. It is recommended to try adding to longs around 2,450-2,460, using 2,420 as the defense level. The nearby 2,540-2,580 area is a resistance zone. These levels have already been established, so if you want to enter a short, look for an entry near resistance and use the upper boundary at 2,580 as the defense level. Mishen’s levels are never changed today and revised tomorrow; they have all been validated by the market, so use them with confidence. (See the chart for details.)
Tonight’s CPI release is expected to bring increased volatility as the night session approaches. Be sure to control your position size when testing trades, so that when it is really time to board, you do not find there is insufficient room. Trading requires minimizing interference from external factors and reducing emotional content; only then can you travel light and capture the value you want.
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