Fed rate-cut expectations keep swinging back and forth—why does the crypto market often drop first and then rally? Recently, the market has been repeatedly debating around expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, and BTC and ETH have also swung sharply. Many investors have noticed that after every economic data release, crypto often initially drops and then quickly rebounds. What is the logic behind this? The key is that the market isn’t trading the rate cut itself, but rather the expectations for it. When economic data such as employment and inflation comes in stronger than expected, the market tends to think the Fed may delay rate cuts, meaning higher interest rates could stay in place longer. Money then flows into the US dollar and US Treasuries, putting short-term pressure on risk assets such as BTC and making prices prone to a rapid pullback. But once panic sentiment is released, capital reassesses the market. If investors believe the long-term rate-cut trend hasn’t changed—or that the bad news has already been priced in—they will buy the dip, driving BTC and ETH to rebound. That’s why the market often shows a “drop first, then rally” pattern. For the crypto space, the Fed’s impact isn’t just about sentiment—it’s also about global liquidity. Rate cuts mean lower borrowing costs and more abundant market capital, so risk assets usually have an easier time attracting incremental funds. Conversely, a high-interest-rate environment suppresses capital inflows, making it harder for the crypto market to rise. So what traders really need to watch isn’t whether a rate cut actually happens, but whether market expectations for future liquidity have changed. When expectations improve, BTC often reacts first; when expectations worsen, crypto may adjust early even if there’s no actual rate hike. How many times do you think the Fed can still cut rates this year? Will it become a catalyst for BTC’s next leg up? Feel free to share your views.$BTC

Damn it—US market opened in the evening session. I watched it for more than 1 hour, then I suddenly got sleepy and fell asleep. I planned to push it up to around 640 and short “big dough,” but when I woke up and looked, it was near 639—I missed the local high. I still shorted it in. After a bit, at 8:00 I’ll check the trend and then get ready to sleep. Anyway, everything was already set. With this trade, either I’ll make a little money, or if God gives me face, then I’ll make more. This afternoon, around 623, I also waited all morning. I entered at more than 62300.1. I originally expected it to dip a bit at night and then keep rising. From the replay, that was right. But when the students came, I made a bit of profit and left—after all, I needed to communicate, and I couldn’t watch the chart anymore. Cashing out is what makes money. Now looking back, my prediction was correct. How would I have known it would rise back then? So cashing out is the safest and steadiest. Holding the short position, I feel like this pump is really strange—short gets pumped. That means it’s very possible it’ll drop back again during the day. Then I’ll see whether my call was right or not. Below are the levels: 631 629 625 This time, Trump is satisfied—the US won’t fight for now. Iran says, “I’ll keep fighting.” Trump says, Saudi Arabia told me not to fight—for the sake of peace. Iran says, “I’ll keep fighting.” Trump says, “I’ll talk”—but I can’t fight anymore, I’m out of ammo. Iran says, “I’ll keep fighting.” You two keep putting on a show. What I hate most is that the news is basically just your two updates—I really don’t want to watch you two tear each other apart. A president tweeting all day long—seriously, that’s got to be something wrong. But if you don’t tweet anymore, how am I supposed to make money? Turns out big traffic is really great—it’s like Trump, harvesting the whole world! Chuan Jianguo went back to Sichuan. Your mom is calling you back to eat, and he even said, “I’ve got candy.” ‍$BTC

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