A Brief Look at the Nonfarm Payrolls Outlook and the Market Ahead!
8:15 livestream, taking on the nonfarm payrolls release live!!
Brothers and sisters, I have published fewer articles recently. I release video market analyses every day, which are clearer, so you can watch more of the videos. The livestreams will also be fully launched soon. Since the beginning of this week, the strategy of going short first and then long reached its targets perfectly! In live trading, there have been no losses, and every trade has been correct.
After the ADP data was released, we went directly long above 76,000 and rode the move all the way to 81,800. The main reason was still the weak data, along with last night's initial jobless claims, which will be reflected in the nonfarm payrolls. U.S. Treasury bonds and the dollar will accordingly come under pressure one after another, while the crypto sector will also surge and take off! As of now, the market's condition and our expected rhythm are completely aligned.
Tonight, the market will once again face a major test between bulls and bears. The nonfarm payrolls data is of utmost importance. The previous reading was -23,000, with a forecast of 56,000; the market expects employment to recover slightly. If the released figure is <56,000, or even remains negative, showing that employment is worse than expected, it will trigger a dovish reaction!
Next, the unemployment rate is another figure to watch. The previous reading was 4.10%, with a forecast of 4.1%; the forecast is unchanged from the previous reading. If tonight's figure is >4.1%, showing that employment is weakening, it will again tilt dovish.
Another figure many people overlook is wages. Month-on-month wage growth was very low last month, and a rebound is expected this month. If the actual figure is far above 0.3%, it would indicate that wages are picking up in the short term, which would be bearish for risk assets. This is the only uncertain bearish risk this month. It will also be the focus tonight. Everyone needs to watch it closely.
My personal forecast is that the market should be weak but biased bullish, with a high probability of rising first and then falling. Since Wednesday's Little Flying Dragon was released, the market has risen 6,000 points as of now. The bullish boost from the market's expectations of weak data has basically been released in advance. Once the data is released, the market may surge to 82,500~83,000, after which buying and selling sentiment will likely turn toward selling, and the market will begin to retreat and fall. We will wait for next week's CPI to determine the true bull or bear market! At the same time, this will also give all of us many opportunities to buy in. Gold, ETH.....and many other instruments will all have setups!
Next, in addition to the current release, we also need to pay attention to revisions to the previous reading, as upward/downward revisions can also change the market's interpretation. Please act only after the data is released, and operate cautiously! Make sure to properly interpret the data! We have more or less taken advantage of this week already. If there is no good entry point or clear data tonight, I will choose to trade gold and SanDisk, and only move in crypto once a one-sided or clear trend emerges! Brothers, use this for your own reference!
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