$BTC Crypto Circle Academician: The 9.3 Bitcoin (BTC) washout trap is unfolding—breaking down the underlying truth of the Bitcoin bull-bear battle? Latest market analysis and trading recommendations
Bitcoin is currently priced at 78750. The market is repeatedly pulling back and forth, with an extremely fierce battle between bulls and bears. Watching the price jump up and down, many people have repeatedly had their stop-losses triggered, becoming increasingly hesitant in their operations. In a bull market, the biggest fear is chasing rallies and selling declines. The market will not move upward in a one-way trend forever, and interim pullbacks and shakeouts are normal. Do not let short-term rises and falls disrupt your mindset. Understanding the structure and managing your position and stop-losses properly are far more important than frequent back-and-forth trading. Around 77000 at present, is this a pullback gathering strength or a retreat from a peak? Technical signals have already provided some clues. Let us objectively break down the current situation based on the market
The daily K-line remains above the EMA15 and EMA30 moving averages, while the medium- and long-term moving averages continue to point upward, meaning the broader bullish structure has not been completely damaged. The 78.6% Fibonacci level at 72620 forms key support, with strong resistance above at 84074. The red MACD bars continue to contract, and DIF shows signs of turning downward and approaching DEA, indicating that bullish momentum is gradually weakening. The Bollinger Bands have narrowed somewhat, and the price has pulled back from the upper band to trade above the middle band. On the daily chart, this is a high-level consolidation pattern after a rise, with no clear reversal signal. However, there is insufficient momentum for a continued short-term breakout upward, so the price will most likely repeatedly test the support below while awaiting a directional choice
The four-hour K-line has fallen below the EMA15 moving average, and the short-term moving averages are beginning to flatten, indicating weakened short-cycle bullish strength. The key resistance above is 82828, while the 78.6% Fibonacci level at 77521 is near the current price, forming nearby pressure. The first support below is 73355, with stronger support further down at 70429. The four-hour MACD has already moved above the zero axis, while the red bars are nearly exhausted, creating a potential risk of a death cross. The Bollinger Bands have shifted from expansion to contraction, and the price is oscillating around the middle band. The four-hour timeframe is in a high-level pullback and consolidation phase, with a short-term bias toward weak consolidation. If the price cannot regain a firm foothold above 77521, it will further pull back to test the support zone
Short-term reference:
Go long from 74000 to 73400, stop-loss 500 points, targets at 77500 to 80000
Go short from 77500 to 78200, stop-loss 500 points, targets at 76500 to 75500
Specific operations should be based primarily on real-time order-book data. For more information, you can contact the author. Publication of this article is delayed; it is for reference only, and you assume all risks.