$BTC I expect a battle around $80,000–85,000. Buyers have not yet demonstrated enough strength to confidently restore the uptrend. Bullish scenario A consolidation above $85,000–87,000 would pave the way to $90,000, and potentially then to $94,000. Bearish scenario Losing $80,000 could lead to a move toward $77,000–78,000. In the event of heavy sell-offs, I would not rule out $73,000–75,000. These are scenario reference points, not guaranteed targets. Why I remain cautious for now Significant capital outflows were observed from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in October. High interest rates and a strong dollar are weighing on risk assets. The Wall Street Journal U.S. inflation data is expected to be released on October 14. It could trigger a sharp move in either direction.

🤯 Dan @connectioncapit's BIGGEST takeaway: Crypto native liquidity is the hidden driver. When BTC goes up, people borrow against it in DeFi and re-inject that liquidity. Total crypto market cap went from $2.1T to $3T. That's NOT macro liquidity. At 43:44 in today's video #DeFi #Crypto #Bitcoin #Liquidity #Aave

#ShareMyFuturesReturn #每周来晒 #美联储9月纪要偏鹰 📊 The Fed, October CPI and the Crypto Market: What Comes Next? As of October 10, 2026, financial markets are trying to balance persistent inflation against signs of a cooling labor market. The Federal Reserve’s September meeting minutes delivered a hawkish message, but they did not guarantee another rate increase in October. The Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points in September, bringing the target range to 3.75 %–4.00 %. Officials emphasized that inflation remains above the central bank’s 2 % target. At the same time, policymakers acknowledged that future decisions will depend on incoming economic data. According to the September minutes, most participants considered another increase appropriate before the end of 2026. However, the timing remains uncertain, and the October meeting could still bring a pause. This makes the upcoming inflation report particularly important for investors. 🔎 1. What Does the September Fed Report Tell Us? The minutes reveal several important factors that could shape monetary policy over the coming weeks: 1. Inflation: The Fed’s staff estimated annual PCE inflation at 3.8 % in August, with core PCE inflation at 3.4 %. 2. Policy rate: The current target range stands at 3.75 %–4.00 % following September’s 25-basis-point increase. 3. Inflation target: The Fed continues to aim for 2 % inflation over the longer term. 4. Labor market: Unemployment was 4.1 % in July and August, while employment conditions remained broadly stable. 5. Economic growth: Consumer spending and business investment continued to support economic activity. 6. Energy prices: Geopolitical tensions and higher energy costs added to inflation risks. 7. Future decisions: Most policymakers considered another rate increase likely by year-end, depending on incoming data. These figures explain why the Fed cannot simply declare victory over inflation. Nevertheless, a hawkish tone in the minutes does not automatically mean that rates will rise at the next meeting. Markets must assess the newest data alongside the Fed’s broader economic outlook. 📅 2. Why October 14 Could Become a Turning Point. The US Consumer Price Index report for September is scheduled for October 14 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This release will arrive before the Fed’s October 27–28 policy meeting. Investors will examine both headline CPI and core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices. The monthly change will matter, but the annual figures and underlying components will also influence expectations. A stronger-than-expected reading could reinforce concerns that inflation is becoming persistent. A softer report could support the argument that the Fed has room to wait before tightening policy again. Importantly, one report alone is unlikely to determine the final decision. The combination of inflation, employment, energy prices and financial conditions will provide a more complete picture. 📉 3. What Could Happen If CPI Exceeds Expectations? A hotter inflation report could change market expectations in several ways: 1. Rate expectations: Traders could increase the probability of another rate hike in October. 2. Treasury yields: Short-term government bond yields could move higher as investors reassess monetary policy. 3. US dollar: The dollar could strengthen if markets anticipate tighter US policy relative to other economies. 4. Bitcoin: BTC could face selling pressure if higher yields reduce demand for riskier assets. 5. Altcoins: Smaller cryptocurrencies could experience larger swings because of their sensitivity to changes in risk appetite. 6. US equities: Growth and technology stocks could come under pressure as financing costs and discount rates rise. 7. Market volatility: Rapid changes in expectations could trigger liquidations and short-term price reversals across several asset classes. These are possible reactions, not guaranteed outcomes. Markets may already have priced in part of the inflation risk, while strong corporate earnings or positive crypto-specific developments could provide support. The key question is whether the actual CPI figures change the outlook more than investors currently expect. 📈 4. Is Another Rate Hike in October Really Likely? As of October 10, the available market indicators point to a relatively low probability of an October increase. The CME FedWatch Tool showed a 17.2 % probability of a hike on October 7, down from 19.9 % a day earlier, according to MarketWatch. In other words, traders were assigning a much greater likelihood to the Fed leaving rates unchanged. However, these probabilities are market-implied estimates derived from interest-rate futures, not official Fed commitments. The September minutes still indicate that most policymakers expect another increase to be appropriate by the end of the year. This leaves room for a different outcome if inflation surprises to the upside. The October CPI release could therefore shift expectations shortly before the meeting. My view is that a pause remains plausible, but the inflation data will be crucial in determining whether that scenario holds. ₿ 5. How Could Fed Policy Affect Bitcoin and Altcoins? Bitcoin often reacts to changes in liquidity expectations, Treasury yields and the broader appetite for risk. If investors expect interest rates to remain higher for longer, some may prefer yield-bearing assets over volatile cryptocurrencies. That could limit upside momentum for BTC and place additional pressure on altcoins. Conversely, softer inflation could strengthen expectations that the Fed will avoid further tightening, potentially improving sentiment across digital assets. However, Bitcoin does not always move in the same direction as US equities or the dollar. Institutional flows, derivatives positioning, ETF demand and crypto-specific news can also influence prices. Altcoins may react more sharply than BTC because liquidity can be thinner and speculative positioning more concentrated. For that reason, I would watch market structure and trading volume alongside macroeconomic headlines rather than relying on the Fed narrative alone. 📊 6. What About the US Stock Market? The impact on American equities will depend on how investors interpret the relationship between inflation, interest rates and corporate earnings. Higher yields can weigh on technology and growth stocks because future earnings become less valuable when discounted at higher rates. Companies that rely heavily on borrowing may also face increased financing costs. On the other hand, resilient consumer spending and strong earnings can help offset some of this pressure. The September Fed minutes noted that broad equity indexes had increased modestly over the period reviewed, supported in part by robust corporate earnings and AI-related investment. This suggests that monetary policy is only one part of the market picture. If CPI comes in below expectations, stocks could benefit from a more favorable rate outlook. If inflation accelerates, investors may become more selective and demand stronger earnings evidence before pushing valuations higher. 🧭 7. Have Markets Already Priced In the Current Expectations? I do not think the market has fully resolved the uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s next move. The low implied probability of an October hike suggests that traders currently lean toward a pause, but the possibility of further tightening remains relevant. Asset prices reflect expectations, yet those expectations can change quickly when new information arrives. Some investors may already be positioned for softer inflation, which could limit the positive reaction to an in-line CPI report. A hotter reading, by contrast, could force a rapid reassessment of interest-rate expectations. The same principle applies to Bitcoin, altcoins and US stocks: the reaction depends not only on the data itself but also on how it compares with what the market anticipated. This is why I would avoid assuming that a single headline automatically determines the next major price movement. Flexibility remains important when the economic outlook is still evolving. 💬 My Takeaway for This Week. For me, the October CPI report is the key event to watch before the next Fed meeting. I would not automatically interpret the hawkish September minutes as a signal to sell every risk asset, nor would I assume that a low probability of an October hike guarantees a rally. Instead, I would compare the actual inflation figures with expectations and observe how Treasury yields, the dollar, Bitcoin and US equities respond. If inflation cools, markets may gain confidence that the Fed can wait before tightening again. If inflation surprises to the upside, volatility could increase as traders reconsider the policy outlook. The most useful signals will come from the combination of macroeconomic data, price action and trading volume. What matters most is not predicting every move, but understanding which developments could change the market’s direction. #GateSquare [@Gate_Square](gt://mention/g1UZydKt-c9b1A62Hq) [@Gate 广场](gt://mention/g178nhK3LTVf5NcWy2) $BTC ‌$BTC ‌