Traveled 80 kilometers round trip to attend an offline crypto meetup; BTC broke through a key resistance level, so watch for subsequent changes in trading volume.

Traveled 80 kilometers round trip to attend an offline crypto meetup; BTC broke through a key resistance level, with subsequent changes in trading volume worth watching.

Nonfarm payrolls miss expectations, surge then retreat—where do the fake figures go from here? Nonfarm payrolls came in at just 29,000, far below expectations of 90k. The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, average hourly earnings increased only 0.1% month over month, and the previous two months’ figures were revised down by a combined 60k, signaling a broad cooling in the labor market. After the data was released, the probability of an October rate hike plunged from 28% to 14%-17%, the U.S. Dollar Index fell below 102, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield retreated to around 5.15%. For the time being, the core contradiction has shifted from “high-rate suppression” to the dual drivers of “employment slowdown plus geopolitical risk aversion.” The nonfarm payrolls data confirmed that the labor market is rapidly losing momentum, directly weakening the need for the Federal Reserve to raise rates in December. Although markets still price in a 60%-63% probability of a December rate hike, that expectation will be quickly revised if subsequent data continues to weaken. Overall, the market has continued to oscillate within a range. After Bitcoin surged above $80k, it began rising and falling repeatedly—down and back up, then up and back down. The range has not been broken. Taking advantage of the major surprise, it violently extended to around 87,300, but failed to break the previous high and quickly retreated to the 83,800 level, driven purely by news. In the short term, it has still failed to stabilize above 85,000, so wait for an opportunity to continue pushing higher toward $90k and above $100k. For medium- to long-term long positions, continue adding on pullbacks. BTC trading recommendation: short at 849-854, stop-loss at 86000, target range 837-832; if the key level of 832 breaks, watch for around 816##美国9月非农新增2.9万