A Brief Analysis of BTC’s Short-Term Trend from Dow Theory, Chan Theory, Elliott Wave Theory, Volume-Price Relationships, Order Flow, and Price Action
$BTC #BTC
I. Dow Theory
Primary trend (1-hour level): The primary downtrend since the historical high of 82,814 on May 6 is still continuing, but clear signs of stabilization and recovery have emerged recently. The price fell from 82,814 through the secondary high of 73,975 on June 1 and the rebound high of 67,247 on June 15 to the July 1 low of 57,721, with a cumulative decline of 25,093. After bottoming on July 1, the bulls launched a strong rebound, driving the price from 57,721 to the July 21 high of 66,914, a rise of 9,193. The price then entered a medium-term correction, retreating from 66,914 to the August 3 low of 62,210, a correction of 4,704 (approximately -7.03%). After bottoming on August 3, the bulls made another strong move, with the price rebounding steadily from 62,210 to the August 7 high of 65,348, setting a new high since August began, with a two-day gain of approximately 3,138 (approximately +5.04%). The current price of 64,872 is approximately 476 points below the August 7 high, representing normal pullback consolidation after the breakout. The primary trend may be shifting from a deep decline to a recovery phase following bottom formation, with clear signs of rising lows (57,721 on July 1 → 61,750 on July 13 → 62,210 on August 3).
Short-term trend (15-minute level): The short-term uptrend since the low of 62,210 at 09:45 on August 3 has been extremely strong and clear. Short-term lows have risen from 62,210 (8-3 09:45) to 62,365 (8-3 12:00) → 63,383 (8-4 10:15) → 64,075 (8-5 01:00) → 64,431 (8-6 03:45) → 64,112 (8-7 05:00), showing the strong characteristic of "continuously rising lows." Short-term highs rose from 64,182 (8-4 15:45) to 64,955 (8-5 20:15) → 65,348 (8-7 12:00), setting a new high since July 21. The price fell from 65,348 to 64,872 late on August 7, a correction of only 476, representing normal consolidation after the breakout.
Dow Theory conclusion: The primary trend may be undergoing a reversal, and the high-volume breakout above 65,000 on August 7 was a key signal. The short-term trend has entered a strong upward phase. 64,000-64,500 is the core short-term support zone, while 65,000-65,500 is the key short-term resistance zone. If the price can hold above 65,000 and break through 65,500, it would open the way toward 66,000-66,500; if 64,000 is lost, the rebound may end and the price may return to a 63,000-62,000 correction.
II. Chan Theory
Fractal structure: On the 15-minute level:
Bottom fractal: A strong bottom fractal formed at 62,210 at 09:45 on August 3, after which the price continued to rebound. A second bottom fractal formed at 63,383 at 10:15 on August 4, a third at 64,075 at 01:00 on August 5, and a fourth at 64,112 at 05:00 on August 7. The bottom fractals continued to rise, showing extremely strong bullish support.
Top fractals: A top fractal formed at 64,182 at 15:45 on August 4, but the subsequent pullback was limited, with a low of 63,383. A new top fractal formed at 64,955 at 20:15 on August 5, followed by a pullback to 64,091 on August 6. A new top fractal formed at 65,348 at 12:00 on August 7, but the subsequent pullback was only 476, with a low of 64,872, showing extremely strong bullish support.
Bi and segments:
From the bottom fractal at 62,210 (8-3 09:45) to the top fractal at 64,182 (8-4 15:45), an upward Bi formed, with a gain of approximately 1,972 and relatively strong momentum.
From the top fractal at 64,182 to the bottom fractal at 63,383 (8-4 10:15), a downward Bi formed, with a decline of approximately 799 and relatively weak momentum.
From the bottom fractal at 63,383 to the top fractal at 64,955 (8-5 20:15), an upward Bi formed, with a gain of approximately 1,572 and strong momentum.
From the top fractal at 64,955 to the bottom fractal at 64,091 (8-6 13:30), a downward Bi formed, with a decline of approximately 864 and moderately weak momentum.
From the bottom fractal at 64,091 to the top fractal at 65,348 (8-7 12:00), an upward Bi formed, with a gain of approximately 1,257 and strong momentum.
From the top fractal at 65,348 to the bottom fractal at 64,872 (8-8 00:00), a downward Bi formed, with a decline of only 476 and extremely weak momentum.
Central consolidation zones:
The original downward consolidation zone at 62,500-63,500 has been completely broken upward and has become strong support below.
A new upward consolidation zone is forming in the 64,000-65,000 range, with the candlesticks from August 5-7 densely intertwined within this range. The current price of 64,872 is in the upper part of this consolidation zone, indicating strong consolidation.
A new resistance consolidation zone is forming in the 65,000-65,500 range.
Chan Theory conclusion: The upward Bi has strong momentum (+1,257), while the downward Bi has extremely weak momentum (-476), showing that the bulls are fully in control. The original downward consolidation zone has been broken upward, and a new upward consolidation zone is forming. In the short term, attention should be paid to whether effective bottom-fractal support can form around 64,000-64,500. If it forms, the upward Bi may restart and challenge 65,500; if 64,000 is directly broken, the rebound may end, with targets of 63,000-62,500.
III. Elliott Wave Theory
Based on the swing structure on the 1-hour level, the movement since the July 21 high of 66,914 can be reclassified as follows:
Wave A decline (completed):
Wave A: 66,914 → 62,210 (August 3), a decline of -4,704 (approximately -7.03%). The decline was relatively strong but failed to set a new low, remaining above the July 8 low of 61,470.
Wave B rebound (in progress):
Wave B-a: 62,210 → 64,955 (August 5), a gain of +2,745 (approximately +4.41%), with strong momentum.
Wave B-b: 64,955 → 64,091 (August 6 at 13:30), a decline of -864 (approximately -1.33%). The pullback was only 31.5%, constituting strong consolidation.
Wave B-c (current): 64,091 → 65,348 (August 7 at 12:00), a gain of +1,257 (approximately +1.96%). Momentum was strong, but it has not yet exceeded the amplitude ratio of the B-a high at 64,955. The current retreat from 65,348 to 64,872 may be a subwave correction within Wave B-c.
Larger-scale structure: If the move from 57,721 (the July 1 low) to 66,914 (the July 21 high) is viewed as Wave 1 of a new upward cycle, then the current correction from 66,914 to 62,210 is a Wave 2 retracement. The Wave 2 correction was 4,704, approximately 51.2% of Wave 1’s gain of 9,193, representing a normal deep correction. If Wave 2 ended at 62,210, the current phase is the launch of Wave 3. The Wave 3 target should be at least equal in length to Wave 1, namely 62,210 + 9,193 = 71,403.
Elliott Wave conclusion: The price may currently be in the upward phase of Wave 3 (or Wave B-c). The August 7 high of 65,348 broke above the August 5 high of 64,955, confirming the continuation of the upward structure. If the price can stabilize on declining volume around 64,500-64,800 and continue upward to break through 65,500, Wave 3 will be confirmed, with targets of 66,500-67,500; if 64,000 is broken, the upward structure may fail again.
IV. Volume-Price Analysis
Overall volume-price characteristics: The sharp decline on July 21 showed a clear surge in volume. During the decline from July 21 to August 3, overall trading volume contracted, indicating that selling pressure was gradually exhausting. A low-volume stabilization signal appeared around 62,210 at 09:45 on August 3. During the rebound from the afternoon of August 3 through August 5, trading volume expanded moderately, showing positive volume-price coordination. On the evening of August 5, signs of rising volume accompanied by stagnant prices appeared in the 64,800-64,900 range. On August 7, a strong high-volume breakout occurred, with the price rising from 64,112 to 65,348 and trading volume expanding significantly, showing that bullish capital was actively entering the market. As the price fell from 65,348 to 64,872 late on August 7, trading volume contracted, indicating limited selling pressure. Overall, the market showed a positive volume-price combination of "declining volume during the fall + low-volume stabilization at the bottom + rising volume during the rebound + declining volume during consolidation."
Key volume-price nodes:
At 09:45 on August 3, low-volume stabilization occurred, with trading volume at approximately the $50 million level, forming an interim bottom at 62,210.
At 19:30 on August 3, a high-volume bullish candle appeared, with trading volume at approximately the $450 million level, driving the price from 63,365 to 64,019 and confirming the start of the bullish counterattack.
At 20:15 on August 5, a record-volume bullish candle appeared, with trading volume at approximately the $520 million level, driving the price from 64,750 to 64,955 and confirming the high of Wave B-a.
At 13:30 on August 6, a low-volume bearish candle appeared, with trading volume at approximately the $120 million level, pulling the price from 64,800 to 64,091 and confirming the low of Wave B-b.
At 12:00 on August 7, a high-volume bullish candle appeared, with trading volume at approximately the $1.3 billion level, driving the price from 64,936 to 65,348 and confirming the launch of Wave 3 (or Wave B-c). This was the highest trading volume recently.
At 22:00 on August 7, low-volume consolidation occurred, with trading volume at approximately the $110 million level, as the price consolidated narrowly in the 64,800-65,000 range.
Recent volume-price status: From late on August 7 to the early hours of August 8, trading volume contracted significantly, while the price consolidated narrowly in the 64,800-64,900 range, representing normal digestion after the breakout.
Volume-price conclusion: After the high-volume breakout above 65,000 on August 7, volume-price coordination was extremely positive. The key observation is that if the price stabilizes on declining volume after pulling back to 64,500-64,800, Wave 3 may continue; if the price breaks below 64,000 on rising volume, the rebound will end.
V. Order Flow
Volume Profile: Over the most recent approximately 20 days (July 15-August 8), the Point of Control (POC) was located at 64,068. The current price of 64,872 is approximately 804 points above the POC, indicating that the market is trading above the value area (Above Value) at a premium.
Current position analysis: The price of 64,872 is above the POC at 64,068 and is therefore above the value area. The Value Area is 63,457-65,573, and the current price is in the upper part of the Value Area, approximately 701 points below its upper boundary of 65,573, indicating short-term buyer dominance. The lower boundary of the Value Area at 63,457 is medium-term strong support, while 65,573 is medium-term resistance.
High-volume nodes (HVN):
65,000-65,500: Upper resistance HVN (the dense trading zone on August 7 and current strong resistance)
64,000-64,500: Core support HVN (the dense trading zone on August 5-6 and current strong support)
62,000-63,000: Lower support HVN (the dense trading zone on August 1-3, now converted into support)
59,000-60,000: Extreme support HVN (the dense trading zone on July 1)
Delta analysis: During the rebound on August 7, Delta turned sharply positive (at the +$8 billion level), confirming the dominance of aggressive buying. Current Delta MA12 has turned sharply positive from near the zero line (+$35 million), showing that buyers are fully in control and sellers have weakened significantly.
Order flow conclusion: The price is above the POC at 64,068, with short-term buyers in control. 65,000 and 65,500 are the two key HVN resistance levels, while 64,000 and 64,500 are the two key HVN support levels. If Delta remains positive and the price stabilizes on declining volume around 64,500-64,800, Wave 3 may continue; if Delta turns deeply negative again and the price breaks below 64,000, the rebound will end.
VI. Price Action
Support and resistance levels:
Strong resistance: 82,814 (interim high), 73,975 (June 1 high), 67,500 (June 15 rebound high), 66,914 (July 21 high)
Key resistance: 65,500 (psychological level), 65,000 (round-number level + August 7 breakout zone), 64,800 (August 5 rally-and-reversal zone)
Key support: 64,500 (lower boundary of the August 7 consolidation zone), 64,000 (bull-bear dividing line), 63,500 (August 4 low zone), 62,210 (August 3 crash low), 61,750 (July 13 low), 61,470 (July 8 low), 57,721 (July 1 crash low)
Candlestick patterns:
At 09:45 on August 3, a candlestick with a long lower shadow appeared, forming a "hammer" bottom pattern at 62,210.
At 19:30 on August 3, a large bullish candle appeared, with a body of approximately +654, surging from 63,365 to 64,019 and forming a "breakout bullish candle" pattern.
At 20:15 on August 5, a candlestick with a long upper shadow appeared, with an upper shadow of approximately 200. The price rose from 64,750 to 64,955 before falling back, forming a bearish "shooting star" pattern.
At 13:30 on August 6, a candlestick with a long lower shadow appeared, forming a "hammer" support pattern at 64,091.
At 12:00 on August 7, a large bullish candle appeared, with a body of approximately +412, driving the price from 64,936 to 65,348 and forming a "breakout bullish candle" pattern, confirming complete bullish dominance.
Trend structure:
Short term: An upward channel has been forming since 62,210 on August 3, with lower-channel support around 63,500 and upper-channel resistance around 65,500.
Medium term: The downtrend line from 66,914 on July 21 has been broken (on August 3), and the price has moved above the trendline.
Price action conclusion: The short-term trend is in the Wave 3 phase of a new upward cycle. 64,000-64,500 is the short-term bullish defense zone, while 65,000-65,500 is the bull-bear dividing line: a breakout would open the way toward 66,500-67,500; losing 64,000 would lead to a pullback toward the 63,000-62,500 range.
Overall assessment
Dow Theory indicates that the primary trend may be reversing, with the high-volume breakout above 65,000 on August 7 serving as a key reversal point. Chan Theory shows strong upward Bi momentum (+1,257) and extremely weak downward Bi momentum (-476), with the bulls fully in control. Elliott Wave Theory suggests that the market may be in Wave 3 of a new upward cycle, with strong Wave 3 momentum. The volume-price relationship shows the positive combination of "declining volume during the pullback + rising volume during the breakout + declining volume during consolidation." Order flow shows a POC of 64,068, with the price trading at a premium and Delta MA12 sharply positive. Price action shows a "breakout bullish candle" pattern, with short-term bullish dominance.
Short-term strategy recommendations:
Bullish scenario: If the price stabilizes on declining volume around 64,500-64,800, forms a bottom fractal, and Delta turns positive, a long position may be considered, with targets of 65,000 → 65,500 → 66,500 and a stop-loss at 64,200.
Bearish scenario: If a top fractal forms around 65,000-65,200 during a rebound, accompanied by a high-volume decline, confirming that 65,500 resistance is effective, a short position may be considered, with targets of 64,500 → 64,000 and a stop-loss at 65,700.
Current status: 64,872 is in the consolidation zone after the Wave 3 breakout, with short-term bulls in control. It is recommended to wait for a pullback to 64,500-64,800 to confirm support before going long, or to wait for a breakout above 65,500 to confirm the continuation of Wave 3 before chasing the rise.