The Hormuz Standoff Remains Difficult to Resolve, Putting Pressure on Crypto Markets Amid Volatility — In-Depth Analysis of Bitcoin and Ethereum Trading Strategies for August 7 On August 7, 2026, the U.S.-Iran confrontation over the Strait of Hormuz entered an intense phase. A draft management bill under review by Iran's parliament proposes banning U.S. and Israeli vessels from passing through the strait and imposing fines of up to 20% of the value of the cargo, while the United States quickly rejected it and stressed that "no obstacles should be placed" in the strait. The two sides remain diametrically opposed, and substantive progress in negotiations appears unlikely. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin continued to trade in a low-volume range near $64,500, while Ethereum fluctuated by only a dozen or twenty points, leaving the market in a typical geopolitical-risk suppression pattern. This article analyzes the core logic of current trading strategies in light of the latest developments and technical indicators. I. Strait of Hormuz: A Geopolitical Confrontation With No Winner 1.1 Positions of Both Sides: "Parallel Lines" That Refuse to Converge The core contradiction in the current U.S.-Iran negotiations lies in their fundamental disagreement over control of the Strait of Hormuz. On the Iranian side, the draft strait management bill under parliamentary review explicitly proposes banning U.S. and Israeli vessels from passing through, with violators facing fines of up to 20% of the value of their cargo. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi claimed that negotiations with Oman had entered the "final stage," emphasizing that "the Strait of Hormuz will not return to the situation before the war broke out in February this year, when vessels could pass through without paying fees." More notably, Iran has established a "semi-formal maritime toll system," requiring passage fees to be paid in yuan or cryptocurrency. A VLCC tanker fully loaded with 2 million barrels of crude oil could face a single passage fee as high as $2 million. On the U.S. side, Trump's statements reflect a typical dual-track strategy of "negotiation plus pressure." On the one hand, he claimed that "the war with Iran will end very soon" and that "a deal could be reached soon." On the other hand, he stressed that "the strait is, in a way, open right now, controlled by us," and revealed that there was an "unlimited supply of weapons." U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent even said that "an agreement with Iran could be reached tomorrow," but as of August 7, that expectation had still not materialized. Core assessment: The statements of the two sides contain fundamental contradictions. Iran is seeking a paid passage system under its sovereign jurisdiction, while the United States insists on the principle of freedom of navigation under international law. This structural conflict means that the probability of reaching an agreement in the short term is extremely low. 1.2 Conditions in the Strait: Traffic Plummets to Nearly Zero According to a Caixin data report, as of August 3, only 4 vessels could be identified as having passed through the Strait of Hormuz. A platform operated by COSCO Shipping showed that the total number of vessel passages in the Persian Gulf last week (July 27–August 2) was 89, down approximately 12.75% week on week. This stands in stark contrast to the dozens of vessels passing through daily during normal periods, indicating that although the strait is "open to some extent," actual traffic has contracted sharply. As for oil prices, Brent crude briefly plunged more than 5% in succession in early August on optimistic expectations for the negotiations, falling below $80 per barrel and down 20% from its previous peak of $100. However, this decline reflected short-term sentiment recovery more than any substantive easing of geopolitical risks. If negotiations break down again, oil prices could rebound at any time. II. Crypto Markets: A Typical Geopolitical Suppression Pattern 2.1 Bitcoin: $65,000 Has Become an "Iron Ceiling" According to historical data, Bitcoin closed at $64,597 on August 5 and is currently fluctuating within a narrow range near $64,500. From a technical perspective, the $65,000 level has formed extremely strong resistance. Multiple failed attempts to break through have created a typical bearish divergence structure. Seasonal factors are even more concerning. Bitcoin has posted a higher monthly close in July for three consecutive years (2024, 2025, and 2026), but its historical median return for August is -7.87%, the worst monthly record of the year, while its average return is only -0.64%. Since 2022, a bearish monthly candlestick in August has become the norm. On the funding side, institutional demand has cooled noticeably. Net weekly inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs fell from a peak of $197 million on July 10 to $33.79 million on July 24, a decline of as much as 83%. This means that although institutional investors have not engaged in obvious selling, their willingness to enter the market has weakened substantially. 2.2 Ethereum: Volatility Hits a Recent Low Ethereum's performance has been even more sluggish, currently fluctuating by only a dozen or twenty points in the $1,900 range and almost entering a "frozen" state. Resistance near $1,930 has likewise remained effective, with market participants choosing to wait and see amid major geopolitical uncertainty. Such extremely low volume often signals that a major move is approaching. However, the direction of that move will depend on how the geopolitical situation develops. If the U.S.-Iran conflict escalates, the probability of a downside breakout will increase sharply; if an agreement is reached unexpectedly, it could trigger a short-covering rebound. III. Trading Strategies: Hold Short Positions Patiently and Apply Strict Risk Controls to Long Positions 3.1 Short Strategy (Primary Strategy) Bitcoin: Continue shorting on a rebound to $64,600–$65,000; conservative traders should wait for the $65,500–$66,000 area. Set the defense level near $66,500. The first targets are $63,800–$63,200; if that level breaks, look toward $62,800–$62,500–$62,200. If the decline continues, use a trailing stop to protect profits. Ethereum: Continue shorting on a rebound to $1,915–$1,940; conservative traders should enter near $1,970. Set the defense level at $2,000. The first targets are $1,850–$1,820; if that level breaks, look toward $1,800–$1,770. Core logic: Until the $65,000/$1,930 resistance levels are effectively broken, the bearish structure remains unchanged. Geopolitical risk serves as a "ceiling" factor, limiting the scope of any rebound. 3.2 Long Strategy (Supplementary/Short-Term) Bitcoin: Consider cautiously opening a small long position on a pullback to $61,700–$62,200, with defense at $61,000. Targets are $63,000–$63,500; if that level breaks, look toward $64,500. Ethereum: Consider cautiously opening a small long position on a pullback to $1,780–$1,800, with defense at $1,750. Targets are $1,830–$1,860; if that level breaks, look toward $1,900–$1,930. Key reminder: Treat long positions only as short-term rebound trades and do not take large positions before the geopolitical situation becomes clear. It is recommended to move the stop-loss on short positions to breakeven when opportunities arise; if stopped out, wait for a better entry point before re-entering. 3.3 Key Risk-Control Points 1. Position management: August is historically a weak month, so total exposure should be kept below 30% 2. Stop-loss discipline: Set stop-losses strictly and do not hold losing positions indefinitely 3. News tracking: Closely monitor any substantive progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations, which is currently the biggest variable 4. Leverage control: In an extremely low-volume market, high leverage can easily result in losses from false breakouts IV. Deeper Logic: Why Does Geopolitical Risk Have Such a Major Impact on Crypto Markets? Under conventional thinking, cryptocurrencies as "decentralized" assets should have limited correlation with geopolitical conflicts. However, the market structure in 2026 has undergone profound changes: First, institutionalization has deepened. The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs has significantly strengthened the linkage between crypto markets and traditional financial markets. When geopolitical risks push up oil prices and stoke inflation expectations, expectations for Federal Reserve policy adjust accordingly, and institutional risk appetite declines in tandem. Second, dollar liquidity transmission. Geopolitical crises usually lead safe-haven capital back into dollar assets, creating a resonance with Federal Reserve interest-rate policy. As a high-risk asset, the crypto market is among the first to suffer when dollar liquidity tightens. Third, Iran's "crypto toll station" innovation. Iran's requirement that cryptocurrency be used to pay passage fees in the strait has had limited practical impact due to the collapse in traffic, but it has set a precedent for incorporating crypto assets into geopolitical competition, increasing market concerns over regulatory uncertainty. V. Conclusion: Wait for a Breakout Signal The current market is in a typical "geopolitical suppression plus technical consolidation" pattern. The deadlock in U.S.-Iran negotiations shows no sign of a substantive breakthrough, with both sides still at the stage of "talking past each other." Trump's optimistic statements stand in sharp contrast to Iran's hard-line position, and this information asymmetry is itself a source of risk. For traders, the most rational choice is to patiently hold short positions while the $65,000/$1,930 resistance levels remain effective, while staying alert to unexpected news. Any substantive agreement concerning the Strait of Hormuz or escalation of military conflict could become a catalyst for breaking the current deadlock. Until then, controlling position size, setting strict stop-losses, and following the trend only after signals become clear is the best strategy for navigating this period of uncertainty. Risk warning: This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency trading carries extremely high risks; please make independent judgments based on your own circumstances. #MoonshotAIPreIPOs开启 $BTC ‌

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$BTC We're at a critical level right now... If we fail to hold this AOI at $64.4k, we're most likely going to see a retracement down to the FVG imbalance before a push higher. I'll be looking for scalp longs around that area. However, if we see a continuation higher from here, we're going to see a quick sweep of the massive cluster of liquidity above. I'm actually surprised we haven't had the buying pressure to push into this region yet.