U.S. August CPI Takes Center Stage Tonight, Bitcoin and Ethereum Hold Their Breath
The Issue 41 strategy remains effective; remember to trade with light positions!
At 20:30 tonight, the U.S. Department of Labor will release the August Consumer Price Index (CPI), the last key inflation report before the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting.
The market generally expects headline CPI to rise 0.4% month-on-month in August, accelerating significantly from July’s 0.1%; the year-on-year increase is expected to remain at 3.4%. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, is expected to rise 0.2% month-on-month, with the year-on-year increase slowing from 2.5% to 2.4%.
Crypto market: Risk aversion dominates, BTC and ETH under pressure awaiting a shift
Yesterday, the U.S. August Producer Price Index (PPI) surged 5.4% year-on-year, well above the market expectation of 5.3%, with diesel prices jumping 24.1% month-on-month as the main driver. After the data was released, CME FedWatch showed the probability of a September rate hike surging from 61% to approximately 70%, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield jumping to 4.90%, and the U.S. Dollar Index strengthening to 98.90.
This macro shock was directly transmitted to the crypto market. Bitcoin quickly fell below the $77,000 level after the PPI data was released,
Leveraged longs were flushed out, while ETH’s buying structure was stronger than BTC
Tonight’s focus: CPI data to determine the short-term direction
Technically, Bitcoin’s current key support lies in the $76,200–$76,800 range; a break below it could lead to a further decline toward around $74,000. On the upside, it needs to reclaim $78,000 to stabilize short-term market sentiment. For Ethereum, $2,400 has been a repeatedly defended support level since early September, with resistance near $2,500 above.
(The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.)
#8月CPI今晚公布 $BTC $ETH