This market action in the earlier segment has worn people down enough; just as many are getting ready to get on, the price comes with a sudden needle-like spike. When you finally think about getting off, the board suddenly pulls up again. I personally follow $TRUTH mainly because around 0.010718 there has been consistent support and there hasn’t been a real, out-of-control sell-off. At the time, I actually wasn’t fully confident either, since the consolidation had dragged on too long, and continuing to hold through it really tests one’s patience. The hardest part was that the price made several attempts to push higher and then fell back; the emotional momentum on the front end can easily get thrown off. But I noticed that at the key levels, prices didn’t keep sliding downward, so I didn’t let short-term volatility ruin my judgment. Later, the market started to accelerate. The feedback at 0.013181 was very clear—this position is already 80% realized. Going from doubt to relief, all that was between was a single truly effective breakout; those grind-it-out swings before it also weren’t a waste of waiting. Once you’ve spent enough time in crypto, you’ll know that the one who makes money isn’t necessarily the most aggressive chaser. A lot of the time, it’s the person who can stay clear-headed amid the noise. Seeing the right direction is just the beginning—holding the rhythm and not getting shaken out by fake moves is what’s worth reflecting on the most this time. $BTC $ETH

$BTC Bitcoin Its Time To Recovery $65000 Soon

BTC/ETH late-July key turning point: the rebound window after support holds, in sync with macro catalysts On July 28, 2026, Bitcoin was consolidating and stabilizing around $63,567, while Ethereum also pulled back to the $1,860 area. From a 4-hour technical perspective, the BTC $63,000-$63,500 support zone has been tested multiple times without breaking, and MACD entanglement around the zero line combined with declining trading volume suggests that short-side momentum is exhausting and a breakout is imminent. Meanwhile, the July 30 Federal Reserve meeting is the biggest macro catalyst of the month—if incoming chair Warsh signals rate cuts, the crypto market will see a liquidity turning point in the “Summer of DeFi 2.0.” This article breaks down the current market structure from three dimensions: technicals, capital flows, and macros, and proposes staged trading strategies for BTC and ETH. I. Technicals: the bulls’ defense line at the support zone and breakout signals 1.1 Bitcoin 4-hour structure analysis After a pullback from the $66,500 high, Bitcoin currently rebounded quickly after dipping to around $63,300, reaching $63,567. Observing the 4-hour candlestick structure, the $63,000-$63,500 range has formed an extremely critical support band—three prior dips failed to effectively break below this level, and each time it was touched was followed by a clear lower wick and a bullish close, indicating that buyers are strongly willing to absorb here. What’s even more worth watching is the relationship between price and volume: during this decline, trading volume has been steadily shrinking, which sharply contrasts with the selling-volume spike seen during the large-scale ETF redemptions in June. A low-volume pullback often means the selling pressure is nearing exhaustion, and the market is brewing a new direction choice. The MACD indicator’s entanglement near the zero line further supports this view—its fast and slow lines crossing back and forth around the zero line is a typical “before the trend change” signal, not a sign of trend continuation. Key observation points: If a bullish candle with a long lower wick can close above $63,500 and the trading volume increases moderately, the rebound probability will rise significantly. The first target above looks toward the $64,500-$65,000 range—this area is both a prior high-density trading zone and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level since the drop from the June high. 1.2 Ethereum technical linkage Ethereum is currently at $1,860 and is synchronously pulling back into the key support zone of $1,850-$1,870. Similar to Bitcoin, ETH has also undergone multiple tests here without breaking, and the relative strength indicator (RSI) has edged up from oversold territory, showing that near-term selling pressure has eased. Worth noting: the ETH/BTC exchange rate has been weakening recently, reflecting that market confidence in the Ethereum ecosystem narrative has not fully recovered. But against the backdrop of expectations shifting toward looser macro liquidity, ETH as a high-beta asset often exhibits stronger upside once a rebound starts. $1,930-$1,950 is the first target zone for ETH’s rebound this round, corresponding to the 0.5 retracement level of the prior down leg. II. Capital flows: institutional divergence amid the ETF redemption wave 2.1 Reshaped landscape after June’s record ETF outflows In June 2026, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $4.06 billion in net outflows, the largest monthly redemption since products were launched in January 2024. This data once sparked concerns in the market about institutions “collectively retreating.” However, Galaxy Research’s breakdown of holdings reveals a more complex picture: most selling came from hedge funds and broker-dealers (Jane Street reduced its position by about 10,800 BTC, and Morgan Stanley fully exited around 8,300 BTC after launching its own fund), while traditional banks were increasing holdings against the trend—JPMorgan added about 3,000 BTC, Wells Fargo increased about 4,000 BTC, and the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund Mubadala also bought over 1,100 BTC. This “hedge funds sell while banks buy” divergence suggests that the current outflows are not a uniform institutional withdrawal, but a rebalancing behavior by investors with different risk preferences. For price action, this structural divergence is more informative than the simple net-outflow number alone—it implies that the underlying demand logic in the market has not collapsed. 2.2 Potential turning point in July capital flows Geoff Kendrick, head of global digital assets research at Standard Chartered, kept his year-end target price of $100,000 even when BTC fell below $60,000, defining the pullback as a “buying opportunity, not a warning.” Bernstein is even more optimistic, maintaining a $150,000 year-end target and viewing this drawdown as one of the most mild bear-market scenarios in Bitcoin’s history. The two institutions’ disagreement essentially reflects different interpretations of ETF fund flows: Standard Chartered relies heavily on ETF flows as the key variable, while Bernstein focuses more on the long-cycle bull-market logic led by institutions. For traders, the most critical thing to monitor in July is not analysts’ target prices, but whether ETF outflows narrow—and even turn back into net inflows. That will be the core signal for judging whether the rebound can sustain. III. Macros: the “liquidity trigger” of the July 30 Fed meeting 3.1 The first major test for the new chair July’s crypto market is entering an extremely critical “mid-year turning point” phase. With incoming Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh taking full control, the liquidity contest at the macro level formally enters deep water. The July 30 meeting is the first major rate-cut window after Warsh takes office, and the market has high expectations for it. If Warsh announces rate cuts (or releases extremely certain September rate-cut signals), it will officially kick off the “Summer of DeFi 2.0,” and risk-asset valuations will undergo a systematic repair. Conversely, if the Fed keeps rates unchanged and delivers a more hawkish tone, citing “inflation still sticky,” the broader market could face deep volatility by month-end. 3.2 The “final push” from mid-month data Before the meeting, the June U.S. CPI on July 14 and the July 17《Clarity Act》hearing are two catalysts that cannot be ignored. If core CPI falls below 3.0%, it will fully ignite market pricing for rate cuts; and if the 《Clarity Act》advances smoothly, high-quality tokens previously shrouded in securities uncertainty—such as SOL, ADA, and XRP—could see valuation reshaping, accelerating the pace of entry for traditional Wall Street capital. 3.3 Indirect disruptions from oil prices and geopolitics The Middle East situation’s security threats to the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping lanes is an indirect barometer for July’s crypto market. A surge in oil prices would raise inflation expectations, constrain the Fed’s room to cut rates, and become a real negative for crypto liquidity. However, at the instant an extreme military conflict breaks out, BTC as “digital gold” may briefly trigger a safe-haven impulse. This complex game of “short-term safe-haven, mid-term pressure” requires traders to stay highly alert. IV. Trading strategy: staged light positions, hold support, and wait for catalysts 4.1 Bitcoin (BTC) trading strategy Long range: around $63,000-$63,500 Target range: around $64,500-$65,000 Stop-loss reference: a valid breakdown below $62,800 (4-hour closing price) Positioning suggestion: stage in with light sizing; the first tranche should not exceed 15% of total capital, and add gradually after confirmation that it has stabilized Logic support: the support band has been tested multiple times without breaking; MACD’s entanglement around the zero line implies a potential regime shift; combined with late-July Fed rate-cut expectations as a macro catalyst, the risk-reward ratio is attractive. 4.2 Ethereum (ETH) trading strategy Long range: around $1,850-$1,870 Target range: around $1,930-$1,950 Stop-loss reference: a valid breakdown below $1,830 (4-hour closing price) Positioning suggestion: trade in tandem with BTC; keep total exposure within 30% Logic support: ETH and BTC have highly synchronized technical structures, but ETH’s upside is larger. If macro liquidity turns looser, ETH as a high-beta asset may capture excess returns. 4.3 Risk management key points 1. Strict stop-loss: the validity of the support level is determined by the 4-hour closing price; a single candlestick wick does not constitute a valid breakdown. 2. Monitor ETF fund flows: track spot ETF fund flows after each day’s close; if outflows keep expanding, reassess the rebound outlook. 3. Macro event calendar: July 14 CPI, July 17 《Clarity Act》hearing, and July 30 Fed meeting are three key time nodes; it’s recommended to reduce leverage before and after these events. 4. Monitor oil prices: if WTI crude breaks above $85/barrel, watch for inflation-expectation rebound that could suppress rate-cut expectations. V. Conclusion: patiently wait for the breakout window The current technical structures of Bitcoin and Ethereum point to the same conclusion: short-side momentum is fading, and the bulls are building a defense at key support levels. MACD’s zero-line entanglement, persistent contraction in trading volume, and repeated confirmations of the support band all suggest that a direction choice is approaching. However, before the July 30 Fed meeting lands, the market will most likely maintain a range-bound structure. As this month’s trading adage says: “Buy when the bill is unclear, sell before the championship match.” For traders, the best strategy right now is not chasing or selling impulsively, but staging light positions above the support band, staying patient, and waiting for macro catalysts to ignite the rebound engine. History won’t simply repeat, but the patterns of fund flows are often surprisingly similar. In 2026, there have already been three cycles of “ETF outflows—stabilization—re-entry.” If the fourth re-entry arrives as expected under the catalyst of rate-cut expectations, those holding firm around $63,500 may see the most cost-effective rebound window of the year. Disclaimer: This article is for market analysis reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The crypto market is highly volatile; make independent judgments based on your own risk tolerance, and strictly control position sizing and stop-loss levels. #直通IPO第二期JerseyMikes $BTC ‌