Weekly Summary, 7.13 Monday Early-Morning Latest Thoughts Analysis
The ups and downs of a week are the breath of a trend. Looking back, this week’s market overall moved through a switch pattern, with no sustained extreme one-way “pump” or one-way “dump”行情 throughout. By the weekend, the uptrend continued: BTC was lifted to a peak of 64691, while ETH rose in sync to the phase high of 1833. After topping and hitting the upper resistance, the “pump” momentum gradually weakened, and then price came under pressure and fell all the way back. BTC’s low dropped to 61520, and ETH’s low to 1712. With solid support resilience, bulls pushed up again, but still failed to effectively break the previous highs. By the weekend, price stayed in a high-level range-bound consolidation and oscillation, and neither BTC nor ETH formed an effective breakdown.
This week, #LAB两日腰斩53% ’s trading followed the momentum, taking advantage of the trend. Over the whole week, BTC totalled 10303 points of space captured, and ETH simultaneously captured 371 points. There were losses and some positions in drawdown, but with strict risk control and timely adjustments, the overall rhythm still remained steady.
The current market structure is still in the post-rally consolidation phase. On both larger and smaller timeframes, the Bollinger Bands are closing in and compressing, with volatility tightening. On the daily timeframe: the Bollinger Bands have leveled out; for multiple days price has been ranging at high levels. High points are gradually decreasing, the candlestick bodies are getting smaller and smaller, and bull momentum is weakening. The probability of transitioning downward into a “break” is building up. On the 4-hour timeframe: several consecutive small candles are moving sideways and consolidating; without a big bullish candle that breaks above the previous high resistance, bull momentum keeps getting consumed. The midline is the dividing line between BTC and ETH; if it holds, the large-range oscillation can continue. The longer the accumulation, the larger the price movement range for next week’s breakout/turning wave. If price breaks below the midline, it will accelerate the move downward to test the bottom support. On the 1-hour timeframe: it’s forming a sideways-to-downward structure. The Bollinger Bands continue to close downward; highs and lows are both gradually decreasing. Although the candlestick bodies haven’t broken the consolidation range, the down wicks have pierced lower to form a new low. The 63600-63400 range has been retested multiple times. If price still can’t effectively break above the previous high 64691, support strength will gradually weaken. Once it breaks, it will directly look toward 62500-61200. Also, divergence signals are appearing now, indicating that the upward move on this timeframe may be at its final stage. Next week, it’s expected that support will be broken by bodies, leading to a round of deep pullback; after a retest around 57700 forms a double-bottom structure for support, the rebound may restart.
BTC: First target 63400; if it breaks down, look at 62500→61200
ETH: First target 1777; if it breaks down, look at 1740→1710
$BTC $ETH