After experiencing a sharp short squeeze and surge yesterday, the overall market today is seeing a corrective session of rising and then retreating. Bitcoin surged to a high of 70,450 yesterday but failed to continue its upward attack today. Long profit-taking continued to exit, and the price fluctuated lower, currently around 69,085. Ethereum surged to a high of 2,336 yesterday and likewise came under pressure and retreated today, currently trading around 2,242. Yesterday’s surge was jointly driven by positive news and a chain of short liquidations, causing a short-term explosion in trading volume.
Today, the positive sentiment has been fully digested, and funds chasing the rise are no longer entering the market. Trading volume has clearly contracted compared with the breakout phase, the upper Bollinger Band has turned downward, and the market has entered a consolidation and shakeout phase following the sharp rise. It is no longer a one-way rally. Today is a period of fluctuating digestion after the surge, so do not chase longs at high levels. Bitcoin’s key watershed lies at 68,400–68,700, which is important support for this upward move. As long as this support holds, the bullish trend remains intact. After consolidating and building momentum, the market may once again test the 70,450 high. If this range is decisively broken to the downside, it would indicate that this bullish phase has temporarily ended and a deep correction would begin. For Ethereum, focus on the 2,180–2,200 support zone. If support holds, there is still a chance to challenge the previous high of 2,336; if support fails, further downside will open up. At this stage, the battle between bulls and bears is intense, and fluctuations will increase. Wait patiently for a pullback to support before entering. Chasing the rise offers a poor risk-reward ratio, so in terms of execution, continue following the approach provided previously.
Thursday midday outlook
Bitcoin: Go long on a pullback to the 68,400–68,700 range, targeting the previous high of 70,450; if it breaks through, continue looking higher.
Ethereum: Go long on a pullback to the 2,180–2,200 range, targeting the 2,336 high.