Before tonight’s CPI release, let’s clarify a few key points I. First, the consensus: What exactly is the market betting on? At 8:30 p.m. tonight, the July CPI will be released. The mainstream Wall Street expectation is currently—headline CPI up 3.4% year-on-year and core CPI up 2.5% year-on-year. Surveys by institutions such as Reuters and FactSet are basically in this range. On a month-on-month basis, headline CPI is expected to rise 0.1% (it fell 0.4% in June), while core CPI is expected to rise 0.2%. But note that forecasts vary considerably across institutions. Bloomberg economists were previously quite optimistic, believing headline CPI could be as low as 2.4%, because they expected falling oil prices and cooling housing costs to feed through more quickly. The Cleveland Fed’s real-time forecasting tool gives 3.42%, which is more conservative. Kalshi, a prediction platform based on trading data, puts it at around 3.3%. 3.4% is currently the broadest point of agreement, but no one is fully confident—June’s data already showed a 0.3-percentage-point gap between expectations and the actual figure (3.8% expected versus 3.5% actual). No one can guarantee that there will not be another surprise this time. II. Forward-looking signals: How is this time different from last time? Let’s start with the good news. International oil prices fell considerably in July, with WTI down more than 10% for the week, mainly because progress in reopening the Strait of Hormuz eased supply-side tensions. Energy prices are the most volatile component of CPI, so falling oil prices will probably pull headline CPI lower. The housing market is also cooling. High mortgage rates are weighing on the housing market, and June data on new-home sales and pending home sales both weakened. Rent increases have already begun to slow. Although this has not yet been fully reflected in CPI, the trend is positive. Now for the bad news. The outlook for core inflation is less optimistic. The Cleveland Fed forecasts July core PCE—the indicator most closely watched by the Federal Reserve—to be 3.31% year-on-year, a full 0.81 percentage points above the 2.5% core CPI reading. Such a large gap suggests that underlying inflation persistence may be underestimated. In addition, a New York Fed survey showed that Americans expect inflation to be 3.6% a year from now and 3.3% three and five years from now. Expectations can become self-fulfilling: once people believe prices will continue rising, they may stock up in advance and demand higher wages, making inflation harder to bring down. Another variable is tariffs. Trump’s tariff policies have continued to intensify. Many companies had previously absorbed the added costs themselves, but an increasing number have recently begun passing those costs on to consumers. An analysis by CITIC Securities said the impact of tariffs on prices could be “more moderate but more persistent”—not exploding all at once, but gradually filtering through. III. Why is tonight’s data especially critical? First, July nonfarm payrolls just delivered a shock—the number of employed people fell by 23k net, versus expectations for an increase of 80k, a gap of 100k. The probability of a rate hike plunged directly from 57% to 44%. With employment weakening, if inflation remains high, the Federal Reserve will be in an extremely difficult position—an early sign of “stagflation.” Second, the Federal Reserve is already deeply divided internally. At the July FOMC meeting, 3 of the 12 voting members voted against a rate hike, the first time this has happened since 2016. Chair Waller also gave no clear direction, simply saying to “watch the data.” Tonight’s CPI is the first key data point. Third, U.S. stocks are currently in a sensitive position. The S&P 500 rose 3.58% last week and the Nasdaq rose 5.19%, both because the market is betting that the Federal Reserve will cut rates. But a Bank of America economist stated a harsh truth: “A report that meets our expectations will strengthen the case for a September rate hike by the Federal Reserve.” In other words, as long as the data are not extraordinarily weak, they could trigger a sell-off, because the market has already priced in too many expectations of monetary easing. IV. What scenarios could play out tonight? Scenario one: The data come in clearly hot (CPI >3.5%). The probability of a rate hike will surge again, Treasury yields will rise, and technology stocks will be hit first. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has already fallen 15% from its June high; another interest-rate shock would only make the decline worse. Gold could pull back to around $4,000. Scenario two: The data meet expectations (CPI 3.3%-3.5%). This is the outcome the market wants most—inflation continues cooling without losing momentum, allowing the Federal Reserve to keep “waiting and watching.” Stocks, bonds, and gold could all rise moderately, while the dollar remains under pressure. But in this scenario, the market reaction may not be very large, because 3.4% has already been largely priced in. Scenario three: The data come in significantly below expectations (CPI <3.2%). A September rate hike would be essentially off the table, and the market might even begin pricing in a November rate cut. The dollar would weaken sharply, while gold could break directly above $4,400. But note that if the data are too low, they could instead trigger concerns about an “economic recession,” meaning the stock market might not necessarily surge. V. Some practical thoughts The current situation is that employment has already flashed a yellow light, while inflation is flickering between yellow and red. Tonight’s CPI will not provide all the answers, but it will certainly force the market to reprice. For ordinary investors like us, there is no need to build complicated models. Just watch the 3.4% dividing line. Above it, prepare for volatility; below it, breathe a short-term sigh of relief. But whatever the result, several more data releases are due before the Federal Reserve’s September meeting. Tonight is only the first hurdle. At 8:30 p.m. Beijing time, let’s watch the results together. We’ll talk again then. #GateLaunchpool瓜分141萬枚DOS $BTC

8.12 BTC Analysis BTC is currently under pressure around 63800 USD. The Bollinger Bands (20,2) are narrowing, with the middle band at 63810 forming dynamic resistance. Repeated unsuccessful attempts to move higher indicate that the bulls lack sustained buying follow-through. The three RSI lines (6/12/24) read 57.50, 48.95, and 44.72, respectively, showing a typical bearish alignment. The 12-period line has also fallen below the 50 strength threshold, while the 24-period line continues to decline, indicating a clear weakening of medium-term momentum. Meanwhile, RSI6 and RSI12 have formed a death cross, further strengthening the short-term downside signal. The lower Bollinger Band at 63221 is the key near-term support. If the price breaks below it decisively and causes the bands to widen, the probability of an accelerated decline is high, with the target potentially reaching the area below the lower band. Trading suggestion: 64300-64800 [original term unclear], target 62300-62800.$GT $BTC $SOL #

8.12 Wednesday SKHY Midday Outlook U.S. stocks broadly closed lower overnight, but the memory chip sector saw a collective recovery. SK hynix ADR ended its pullback of several consecutive days and staged a sharp rebound after bottoming, closing at $141.80, up 4.70% on the day. It retested a low of $132.2 intraday and reached a high of $143.1, with an intraday range of nearly 8%. Trading volume expanded significantly, indicating a recovery driven by capital flowing back in after the oversold decline. Technically, the key support below is $132-$134. After retesting this range, the price rebounded strongly and held this round’s key support. The short-term resistance above is $148, the previous consolidation platform; only after breaking through it can the price target the $150 level. Trading recommendation: 147-149 (unspecified), target 139-134$BTC $ETH $SOL