Will BTC continue the frenzy this week, or be brought back down to reality?
Bitcoin breaks above $81,000.
“Bulls are back—let’s go!” “$80k is finally back!”
U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows of $1.92 billion last week, the largest weekly inflow in 10 months. More than $4 billion in shorts were liquidated over the past two days. Bitcoin rose approximately 23% last week, its biggest weekly gain in more than three years. Escalating sanctions on Iran boosted safe-haven demand. Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio called for “a moderate allocation to Bitcoin.”
The entire market is in FOMO.
But this week’s three events will be the real tests.
First: July PCE inflation data (August 26 at 20:30 Beijing time)
This is the Fed’s favorite inflation indicator. The market expects core PCE to rise 0.2% month over month.
Scenario A: Data below expectations → cooling inflation confirmed → rising rate-cut expectations → BTC’s rocket keeps flying.
Scenario B: Data above expectations → sticky inflation confirmed → no rate cut in September or even a rate hike → BTC faces short-term pressure.
Second: Warsh’s Jackson Hole debut (August 28 at 22:00 Beijing time)
This is new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first global appearance since taking office.
Warsh is hawkish. Since taking office, he has deliberately avoided forward guidance, shortened policy statements, and remained vague. The market has interpreted his silence as a “lack of resolve to fight inflation.”
If Warsh says “balance” → dovish tilt, BTC rises. If Warsh says “caution” → hawkish tilt, BTC falls.
He may provide no substantive guidance at all. That would throw the market into a vacuum, making volatility even greater.
Third: Employment statistics benchmark revision (August 28)
July nonfarm payrolls were already bad enough—down 23k, versus expectations for an increase of 80k. May and June figures were revised down by a combined 103k.
How much more will they be revised down this time?
If there is a major downward revision → the labor market is colder than imagined → the “recession narrative” returns.
Short-term bearish (risk assets sell off first), but it strengthens the rate-cut logic in the long term (down first, then up).
Three scenarios
Scenario A (fully dovish): PCE below expectations + Warsh dovish + mild downward employment revision
→ BTC breaks above $83,000. The frenzy continues.
Scenario B (mixed): Data shows both hawkish and dovish signals, with vague guidance
→ Wide-range volatility, washing back and forth between $77,000 and $82,000. Both longs and shorts get wiped out.
Scenario C (fully hawkish): PCE rebounds + Warsh hawkish + major downward employment revision triggers recession fears
→ Pullback to $74,000-$75,000. But this could be a golden buying opportunity.
This week’s action checklist
First, don’t bet on a direction. Three landmines are counting down simultaneously; taking a heavy position in either direction is gambling.
Second, use staggered limit orders to deal with volatility. Set stop-losses for long positions and don’t hold on stubbornly. Those on the sidelines should wait for a pullback or enter after confirmation on the right side.
Third, watch these three time points closely:
August 26 at 20:30 (PCE + GDP revision)
August 28 at 22:00 (Warsh’s speech)
August 28 (employment benchmark revision)
Fourth, the Fear and Greed Index is already at 83 (Greed). “I am fearful when others are greedy”—this saying never goes out of date.
After this week, the broad direction for the second half of the year will finally become clear.
Will this rebound turn into a reversal, or will the rebound end and the bear market continue? The answer lies entirely in this week.#BTC三天大涨20% #Gate储备金规模升至82亿美元 #质押ALIGN瓜分千万代币 $BTC $ETH $SOL