BTC at $75,800—are you planning to go long or short? Look at the surface first: negative news is bombarding the market, but the price has not collapsed. BTC fell from $126,000 to $75,000, a 40% retracement, and is down 13% this year. On September 15, a large bearish candle erased the rebound from the previous days and broke below $78,000. Today, it is fluctuating narrowly between $75,400 and $76,100, with the RSI at 47, neutral to weak. The direction is undecided; tonight will reveal all. First: The regulatory bill failed, but the real bomb will go off tonight. The CLARITY Act’s procedural vote in the Senate failed 49-50, falling short of the 60-vote threshold and failing outright. The market waited 11 months, hoping it would break the deadlock, but instead got a bucket of cold water. BTC quickly fell from its intraday high, with long liquidations reaching hundreds of millions of dollars. This news is a “known negative catalyst.” The market has already fallen 40%, and the bill’s failure had been partially priced in. The real bomb is tonight’s FOMC meeting. Second: The probability of a rate hike tonight is 87%-92.5%, the first such hike since 2023. The Federal Reserve is shifting from a rate-cutting cycle to a rate-hiking cycle, raising the target rate from 3.50%-3.75% to 3.75%-4.00%. August CPI rose 0.4% month over month, core inflation remains above 2%, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly exceeded 5%. Borrowing has become more expensive, draining liquidity from risk assets. The market has already partially priced in a rate hike, but the dot plot and Powell’s tone are the real weapons. “Rate hike delivered but dovish” → short-term rebound; “rate hike + more hawkish” → test lower support. Third: Technically, the market has reached a point where a choice must be made. The daily MACD is bearish, short-term moving averages are in a bearish alignment, but there has been an attempt at a rebound after the Bollinger Bands touched the lower band. $75,000-$75,400 is a dense zone of recent lows and a psychological threshold, and it has held for a day. But don’t forget—$76,500-$77,100 is short-term moving-average resistance, while $78,000 is the weekly line in the sand. If $78,000 cannot be reclaimed and held, the price will probe lower. The bulls and bears face off; you decide. On one side: Long-term holders’ positions remain at elevated levels, with concentrated holdings at $62,000-$65,000 and $83,000-$86,000. Cumulative ETF net inflows exceed $55 billion, with AUM of approximately $100 billion. MARA added 1,292 BTC, worth approximately $98.6 million. Supply remains rigid after the halving, while institutional access channels remain in place. On the other side: The CLARITY Act failed, leaving no short-term regulatory solution. The probability of a rate hike tonight exceeds 87%, the first such hike since 2023. Long leverage is elevated, amplifying liquidation risks. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is above 5%, while real rates are weighing on the market. Overhead resistance: $76,500-$77,100 → $78,000-$79,500 Downside support: $75,400-$75,000 → $73,200-$74,000 Trading strategy Base case (rate hike delivered, neutral to hawkish): The price may first dip to $75,400-$75,000 before rebounding. Try a small long position near $75,500, with a stop-loss below $74,800 and a target of $76,800-$77,200. Alternatively, wait 30-60 minutes after the decision before entering. Bearish case (rate hike + more hawkish path): After a confirmed break below $75,400, short on rebounds, targeting $73,500-$74,000, with a stop-loss above $76,200. Bullish case (rate hike but dovish, or “sell the expectations, buy the fact”): If $76,800 is firmly reclaimed on increased volume, chase a small long position, targeting $78,000-$79,500, with a stop-loss near $75,800. In the medium to long term, positions can be built in batches around $75,000, but if real rates continue rising, wait for a lower-cost zone. You fear the rate hike; institutions are waiting for the opportunities after the hike. After a 40% plunge, the most expensive thing is not the coins—it is patience. Those who survive tonight will be the ones qualified to talk about buying the dip. If $78,000 cannot hold, don’t talk about a bull market. If $75,400 cannot hold, don’t talk about a rebound. FOMC tonight—are you going long, going short, or staying flat and watching the show? $BTC $ETH $SOL #Gate广场中秋团圆局 #每周来晒 #美联储加息会议

$SUI short, entered at 0.7086 and held to around 0.6877, +142.04%. From the beginning, this trade was based on resistance at the highs, not a crash. When the direction is right, holding patiently is more comfortable than frequently entering and exiting. The market did not move particularly fast after entry and shook out traders several times, but the protective level was never moved. I’ve now closed 80%, with the remaining 20% following the protective level. I’m not trying to guess the top. I’ve experienced plenty of this kind of shakeout; what matters is whether the structure has broken down. Technically, the previous high has not been broken, and the pullback also lacks volume, so the bearish structure remains intact. As long as there is no high-volume move back above the key level, I prefer to continue holding; if it regains a firm foothold, I’ll exit the remainder. There are still opportunities, so there is no need to chase. I’m not setting a target for now—I'll take it one step at a time. $SOL $ZEC

The $CVC short trade has finally paid off. I tried shorting around 0.03121 earlier, based on repeated resistance above, a volume-less false breakout, and the price failing to reclaim the level on the pullback. During the holding period, the price kept drifting lower. There were some intraday wick rebounds, but volume failed to follow, so I treated them as weak rebounds. I placed the stop-loss above the entry price, took 80% off at 0.02811, and will see whether the remaining 20% can continue breaking the previous low. +243.56% unrealized profit—not much, but the structure played out smoothly. As long as the rebound fails to reclaim the key level, the bearish view remains unchanged; if the key level is not broken, I’ll keep holding. Once it firmly reclaims the level, I won’t stubbornly hold the remainder. Don’t chase if you miss this kind of setup; wait for confirmation. $BTC $SOL