SOL Silk Road reference layout: short-selling strategies and trading beliefs under rule constraints In mid-July 2026, Solana (SOL) met strong resistance in the $77–$78 range. After a spike at $77.39 in the early hours, it quickly pulled back, forming a long upper wick, while short-term capital concentrated to take profit and exit. This article analyzes the rationale of a SOL short setup in three dimensions—technical analysis, capital momentum, and the macro environment—and delves into the trading philosophy of “using rules to define entries and exits,” providing traders with references that combine practical execution and intellectual depth. 1. Live market snapshot: $77.39 SOL becomes the intraday lifeline As of July 20, 2026, Solana (SOL) is quoted at about $73.70, with a market cap of about $42.81B. In CoinGecko’s global crypto rankings, it ranks 7th. Judging from recent price action, since its January 2025 all-time high of $293.31, SOL has undergone a deep correction lasting for as long as 18 months. The current price is down about 74.47% from the peak. Key technical levels explained: In the early hours, SOL showed a typical “needle” pattern: price briefly surged to $77.39, then quickly fell back, forming a long upper wick. In technical analysis, this candlestick formation is called a “shooting star” or “meteor line.” It is a classic signal of waning bullish momentum and heavy selling pressure overhead. From a market-structure perspective, the $77–$78 range is exactly the key resistance zone that has been tested multiple times previously, and it also overlaps the Value Area High and the long-term downtrend line. When price fails to hold above this level and quickly retreats, it means buyers in that zone encountered strong rejection, and market structure shifted from “attempting to break out” to “returning to the range.” From a volume perspective, this surge to higher levels did not come with sustained expansion in volume. Instead, during the pullback, volume increased on the downside, indicating short-term speculative capital is concentrating to take profit and exit, rather than long-term institutions stepping in with takeover buying. The RSI moved up to near the 70 overbought threshold during the rally, then dropped quickly afterward. While the MACD histogram remains positive, it has begun to contract. These momentum indicators diverging further confirm the formation of a near-term top. 2. Cross-market confirmation: BTC and Ethereum pull back in sync, not an isolated event When expanding the lens to the entire crypto market, Bitcoin (BTC) was quoted at about $64,811 in July 2026, down about 45% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,272. Ethereum (ETH) also showed weak performance in parallel, quoted at about $1,770. This pattern of “mainstream coins falling together” suggests that this round of upside was not driven by fundamental structural improvement, but more like a short-term capital pulse–driven technical rebound. Looking at the macro picture, the 2026 crypto market faces multiple pressures: the U.S. Federal Reserve maintained a relatively hawkish stance from late 2025 into early 2026; global geopolitical uncertainties (such as the Iran situation) continue to intensify; and risk assets overall are under pressure. More notably, gold rose by about 19% within 2026, while Bitcoin fell by about 22%—their price movements show a rare divergence. This implies that Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative for risk hedging has not been realized in actual crisis conditions, and instead it remains highly positively correlated with risk assets such as the Nasdaq. Polymarket prediction market data shows that market participants believe the probability of Bitcoin breaking below $55,000 before the end of 2026 is as high as 65–71%, which is a significant increase compared with the previous few weeks. Although Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) continues to increase its BTC holdings (now exceeding 760k BTC), the prediction market suggests institutional buying may be insufficient to offset spot ETF outflows and macro pressure. This contradictory setup of “institutions buy, price falls” actually indicates that the market lacks incremental capital, with a clear “supply-and-demand among existing players” characteristic. Against this backdrop, SOL’s surge and subsequent pullback is definitely not an isolated event; it is a microcosm of the broader market’s declining risk appetite and rapid capital rotation. When both BTC and Ethereum fail to form effective breakouts, SOL—having a high-beta altcoin profile—will only experience amplified downside risk. 3. Strategy breakdown: the logic chain for shorting the $77–$78 zone Entry zone: short near $77–$78 The selection of this zone is based on three layers of logic: first, $77.39 is the early-hours needle high, forming the strongest intraday resistance. Before any breakout occurs, any rebound within this zone can be treated as “bull traps.” Second, this range tightly coincides with the $78 support level that has been tested multiple times previously (now turned into resistance), creating technical confluence. Third, from a risk-reward perspective, with $79.5 as the stop-loss level, the first target is $75 and the second target is $73. The risk-reward ratio is about 1:2 to 1:3, meeting the position management standards of professional traders. Stop-loss setting: above $79.5 The stop-loss level is not set arbitrarily; it is based on a key structural boundary. The $79.5 mark sits at the top edge of a prior small consolidation platform. If price effectively breaks above this level, it means the short-side structure has been damaged, and the market may begin a new push higher. In that case, decisively stopping out is a respect for rules and an acknowledgment of risk. In trading, “a small loss is always better than a big loss.” A stop-loss is not a sign of failure; it is a necessary condition for survival. Target levels: first target $75, second target $73 $75 is the lower edge of the prior consolidation platform and also a psychological round-number level. Some short-term buyers are expected to step in there to form support, making it suitable to reduce position size and lock in profits. $73 is a deeper support level corresponding to the area of prior swing lows. If market panic spreads, this level may be revisited. It needs to be emphasized that reaching the target levels is not guaranteed; traders should adjust dynamically based on actual price action, rather than mechanically waiting. 4. Trading philosophy: step out of emotional games, and let rules define freedom “I’ve long stepped out of the circle of emotional trading, using rules to define entry and exit, and using position sizing to lock in risk. No matter how the market shakes and tugs, I only keep my own rhythm.” This passage captures the essential difference between professional traders and amateur players. In the cryptocurrency market, which runs 24/7 with intense volatility, emotion is the biggest enemy. FOMO (fear of missing out) makes people chase at highs, while FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt) makes people cut losses at lows. Behind both extreme emotions is the same problem: decisions made without rule constraints. What is the essence of rules? Rules are not a restriction—they are protection. They are like an invisible track that helps traders keep a sense of direction amid market storms. Entry rules solve “when to do it,” exit rules solve “when to close,” and position rules solve “how much to do.” All three are indispensable and together form a complete trading system. Once the rules are established, a trader’s core task is no longer “predict the market,” but “execute the rules”—prediction is art, execution is science. Art requires talent; science only requires discipline. “Though the waters run three thousand, I only take one ladle. I don’t grab opportunities beyond my understanding, I only earn money within my cognitive range.” This reveals another truth of trading: the market produces countless fluctuations every day. Every fluctuation seems like an opportunity, but most opportunities belong to “noise” rather than “signal.” Trying to capture every opportunity often results in being反噬 by all opportunities. True traders understand selection; they know how to act within their ability zone and stand by outside it. This is not conservatism—it is clarity. Having the courage to recognize your boundaries clearly is more important than blindly expanding them. 5. Accumulating trust: from one trade at a time “Trust is not something you say—it’s something you build trade by trade. From entering, to holding, and finally taking profits—every choice is an accumulation of trust. What clients believe in is not only the outcome, but also every judgment you make in the process.” In the field of trading services, this line carries special weight. The crypto market is full of all kinds of “signal groups” and “copy-trading communities,” but the teams that truly survive long term and earn respect are always those that make every trade transparent, every decision logic structured, and every risk controllable. Outcomes matter, but the process is the foundation of trust. When clients see that you do not hesitate when setting stop-losses, that you take profits rationally in batches, and that you stick to your plan during consolidation—this consistency is more persuasive than any fancy promise. The market fluctuates every day. What truly tests you is not what happens when the trend arrives, but whether—during mid-range chop, hesitation, and uncertainty—both sides can still execute according to the plan. This sentence precisely describes the most difficult stage in trading: not the moment you open a position, and not the moment you close it, but the psychological game you face while holding a position with floating profit and floating loss. At this time, rules become the anchor again—they help traders find certainty amid uncertainty and maintain order amid chaos. 6. Conclusion: calmly move through bull and bear cycles—that is the best state In 2026, the crypto market is in a complex period where longs and shorts are intertwined. Nearly a year has passed since Bitcoin fell from its $126k high, and the market is still searching for a new equilibrium price. Solana has dropped more than 70% from its $293 all-time high. While the ecosystem fundamentals (such as the Firedancer upgrade, stablecoin trading volume, and DeFi activity) are improving, the divergence between the token price and network value has not been fully repaired yet. In such a market environment, shorting the SOL $77–$78 range is essentially a probability game based on technical structure, capital momentum, and market linkage. It does not guarantee profits, but it ensures risk is controllable; it does not predict the future, but it respects the present. As the article says: “Don’t be proud when you’re high; don’t panic when you pull back. Move calmly through bull and bear—that is the best state for trading.” The market is never short of overnight wealth myths, but very few people can hold long-term compounding. The enemy of compounding is not loss—it’s losing control. It’s not making a mistake—it’s being casual. When traders truly understand this and integrate it into their blood, turning it into rules, they have already surpassed the vast majority of market participants. Though the waters run three thousand, I only take one ladle. This ladle is the monetization of cognition, the fruits of rules, and the gift of time. Risk warning: The crypto market is highly volatile, and prices are influenced by multiple factors. The strategies described in this article are based on technical analysis within a specific time window and do not constitute investment advice. Traders should make independent decisions based on their own risk tolerance, strictly control position sizes, and never trade against the trend. #GUSD年化升至3.8% $SOL

7.20 SOL trading plan A rebound capped between 77.3-77.8—short on the pressure. Stop loss above 78.5. Cut half at 75.5; the rest looks to 74.4-73.5. SOL’s correlation with BTC is 0.97. Big BTC is hovering around 64,800 and can’t push higher, and SOL also doesn’t have an independent trend. At 77.5, it’s surged three times but keeps getting slammed back—bulls’ volume can’t keep up. Weekend trading volume is shrinking; all the rebounds are hollow, “up-only” moves with no volume. In this kind of market, it’s easiest to have everything instantly knocked back to square one with a single bearish candle. Resistance overhead: 77.3-77.8. All the daily moving averages are pressing down there. The 7-day, 15-day, and 30-day MAs form a resistance band at 76.1-78.1; rebounds are basically just handing out free heads. Downside targets: 75.0-75.5 as the first stop; if it breaks down, look at 74.4-73.5. ① On the 1-hour chart, it pushes higher multiple times and gets rejected, then falls back. After the Bollinger Bands tighten to an extreme, the direction is undecided—the price is locked in a 74.4-76 box-range. The SOL long/short ratio in futures is 2.63. Retail longs are overcrowded; once BTC turns, SOL will drop about 1.8x as fast as BTC. ② The geopolitical conflict between the U.S. and Iran continues. Oil prices are rising again, reigniting worries about inflation; risk appetite is being suppressed hard. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has climbed to around 4.60%. The opportunity cost of holding high-beta assets like SOL keeps getting higher. ③ From July to now, Solana spot ETF inflows are only $3.65 million, far below last year’s peak. While SBI Holdings using Solana to issue JPY stablecoins is a long-term positive, the price has already Price In in the short term. Good news fully priced in becomes bad news. It’s lively on-chain, but if the candlesticks can’t move, they can’t move. Don’t turn the story of fundamentals into a belief for short-term trading. $SOL ‌

Sora trading plan for this morning Setup: Sell short near 77.0-77.5 Target: 76.5-76.0 Further downside: 75.0, set a stop loss and manage it well Sora twice surged and then fell back near the pressure zone, forming a clear rejection signal—short-term top indications are starting to appear. After price pierced the upper band, it quickly returned back inside the channel, which is typical of a fake breakout to lure longs. Bullish momentum is clearly insufficient, and sell pressure above has begun to release. The shorting logic is clear at the current position: on any rebound into the pressure area, build the short positions in batches. Keep an eye on the lower band support zone for the target; if it breaks, look further lower. However, since the overall market is still in a range-bound consolidation structure, you shouldn’t overestimate the pullback room. Trade with light position sizing, strictly defend above the key resistance, avoid chasing shorts, and patiently wait for the right entry timing after the rebound. $SOL #GUSD年化升至3.8%