BTC at $75,800—are you planning to go long or short?
Look at the surface first: negative news is bombarding the market, but the price has not collapsed.
BTC fell from $126,000 to $75,000, a 40% retracement, and is down 13% this year. On September 15, a large bearish candle erased the rebound from the previous days and broke below $78,000. Today, it is fluctuating narrowly between $75,400 and $76,100, with the RSI at 47, neutral to weak. The direction is undecided; tonight will reveal all.
First: The regulatory bill failed, but the real bomb will go off tonight.
The CLARITY Act’s procedural vote in the Senate failed 49-50, falling short of the 60-vote threshold and failing outright. The market waited 11 months, hoping it would break the deadlock, but instead got a bucket of cold water. BTC quickly fell from its intraday high, with long liquidations reaching hundreds of millions of dollars.
This news is a “known negative catalyst.” The market has already fallen 40%, and the bill’s failure had been partially priced in. The real bomb is tonight’s FOMC meeting.
Second: The probability of a rate hike tonight is 87%-92.5%, the first such hike since 2023.
The Federal Reserve is shifting from a rate-cutting cycle to a rate-hiking cycle, raising the target rate from 3.50%-3.75% to 3.75%-4.00%. August CPI rose 0.4% month over month, core inflation remains above 2%, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly exceeded 5%.
Borrowing has become more expensive, draining liquidity from risk assets.
The market has already partially priced in a rate hike, but the dot plot and Powell’s tone are the real weapons.
“Rate hike delivered but dovish” → short-term rebound; “rate hike + more hawkish” → test lower support.
Third: Technically, the market has reached a point where a choice must be made.
The daily MACD is bearish, short-term moving averages are in a bearish alignment, but there has been an attempt at a rebound after the Bollinger Bands touched the lower band. $75,000-$75,400 is a dense zone of recent lows and a psychological threshold, and it has held for a day.
But don’t forget—$76,500-$77,100 is short-term moving-average resistance, while $78,000 is the weekly line in the sand. If $78,000 cannot be reclaimed and held, the price will probe lower.
The bulls and bears face off; you decide.
On one side:
Long-term holders’ positions remain at elevated levels, with concentrated holdings at $62,000-$65,000 and $83,000-$86,000.
Cumulative ETF net inflows exceed $55 billion, with AUM of approximately $100 billion.
MARA added 1,292 BTC, worth approximately $98.6 million.
Supply remains rigid after the halving, while institutional access channels remain in place.
On the other side:
The CLARITY Act failed, leaving no short-term regulatory solution.
The probability of a rate hike tonight exceeds 87%, the first such hike since 2023.
Long leverage is elevated, amplifying liquidation risks.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is above 5%, while real rates are weighing on the market.
Overhead resistance: $76,500-$77,100 → $78,000-$79,500
Downside support: $75,400-$75,000 → $73,200-$74,000
Trading strategy
Base case (rate hike delivered, neutral to hawkish):
The price may first dip to $75,400-$75,000 before rebounding. Try a small long position near $75,500, with a stop-loss below $74,800 and a target of $76,800-$77,200. Alternatively, wait 30-60 minutes after the decision before entering.
Bearish case (rate hike + more hawkish path):
After a confirmed break below $75,400, short on rebounds, targeting $73,500-$74,000, with a stop-loss above $76,200.
Bullish case (rate hike but dovish, or “sell the expectations, buy the fact”):
If $76,800 is firmly reclaimed on increased volume, chase a small long position, targeting $78,000-$79,500, with a stop-loss near $75,800.
In the medium to long term, positions can be built in batches around $75,000, but if real rates continue rising, wait for a lower-cost zone.
You fear the rate hike; institutions are waiting for the opportunities after the hike.
After a 40% plunge, the most expensive thing is not the coins—it is patience.
Those who survive tonight will be the ones qualified to talk about buying the dip.
If $78,000 cannot hold, don’t talk about a bull market. If $75,400 cannot hold, don’t talk about a rebound.
FOMC tonight—are you going long, going short, or staying flat and watching the show? $BTC $ETH $SOL #Gate广场中秋团圆局 #每周来晒 #美联储加息会议