#ETH# 0192837464656574839201 📈 1. Current Short-term Trend

- **Technical Structure**: Daily chart confirms **bullish breakout**, forming a "higher high - higher low" pattern, and has broken through the long-term downtrend line since November 2024, with a clear trend reversal signal.

### ⚖️ 2. Key Support and Resistance Levels
1. **Resistance Zone**:
- **$3,061**: Weekly 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, may accelerate upward after breaking through.
- **$3,260–$3,300**: Low liquidity area, if there is a breakout with volume, it will open up space to **$3,524** (0.786 Fibonacci level).
- **$3,834–$4,400**: Medium to long-term target (based on the head and shoulders bottom pattern and institutional bullish forecast).

2. **Support Area**:
- **$2,972**: 4-hour Bollinger Band middle line, the intraday dynamic bullish-bearish dividing line.
- **$2,945–$2,900**: EMA20 moving average cluster and daily pivot point, strong defense zone.
- **$2,800**: Key support for the trend; if it breaks below, the short-term bullish outlook fails.

### 📊 3. Technical Indicators and Momentum Signals
- **Bullish momentum strengthens**:
- **MACD**: The 30-minute chart shows a "golden cross" with expanding bars, and the 4-hour chart maintains positive momentum.
- **RSI**: The 30-minute chart shows 65.1 (not overbought), still has upward potential.
- **Risk Warning**:
- If the price cannot hold above **$3,061**, it may pull back to **$2,972** to test support. If it breaks below, pay attention to **$2,814** (EMA50 4H).
- Derivatives open interest surged (+5.54% to $43.7 billion), caution against short-term liquidation volatility caused by high leverage.

---### 🌐 4. Macroeconomic Events and Capital Impact (Beijing Time, July 15)
- **U.S. CPI Data Release**: If inflation is lower than expected, it may boost risk assets (such as ETH) further; if it exceeds expectations, it could trigger profit-taking.
- **Institutional Fund Inflow**: The spot ETF recorded a single-day historical high of **$383 million**, with total monthly inflow exceeding **$500 million**, providing strong support for the price.
- **On-chain Signal**: 79.96% of ETH is in profit (the highest since January 2025), with long-term holders showing strong reluctance to sell.

### 💡 5. Operational Suggestions
- **Bullish Strategy**:
- If it stabilizes after a pullback at **$2,970–$2,990**, you can gradually set up long positions, with a stop loss set below **$2,945**, aiming for **$3,260→$3,524**.
- After breaking through **$3,061**, go long and set a stop loss at **$3,020** to take advantage of the liquidity gap and accelerate the market.
- **Short Hedging**:
- If **$3,060** is repeatedly resisted and the 30-minute RSI is overbought (>70), take a light short position with a stop loss at **$3,100** and a target of **$2,980**.
- **Conservative Strategy**: Reduce positions before CPI data to avoid event volatility penetrating stop-losses.

> 💎 **Key Reminder**: Pay attention to whether the 4-hour K-line can stabilize above **$3,050** after 8:00 AM Beijing time, as this is the dividing line for strength and weakness within the day. If combined with favorable CPI, there is hope to initiate a new round of momentum!