Crypto Daily — 2026.10.12 The Russia-Ukraine and Iran situations drove oil prices to a one-month high, $BTC fell 1.8% to $82.5 K, and the market turned defensive again ahead of CPI. 1. Attacks involving Ukraine and Iran pushed oil prices to a one-month high, sending risk assets broadly lower. $BTC fell to around $82,488 (-1.8%), weakening from $84,352 to $82,411 intraday; over 24 h, $BTC liquidations totaled $64.43 million, with longs accounting for $43.28 million (67%). Analysts generally view this week's CPI as the key variable determining whether $BTC tests $80 K or rebounds to $86 K. 2. The long-term structure is still recovering: Strategy confirmed that it had resumed buying $BTC and still had $354.8 million in repurchase authorization after buying back 250 coins; on-chain analyst Darkfost said long-term holders' profitability has recovered, a pattern that typically appears near the end of a bear market. TRON also disclosed that its cumulative settlement volume had surpassed $30 trillion, while USDT supply reached $93.9 billion. 3. Gate / $GT: The platform continued its pace of tokenized U.S. stocks and new-token launches, while the token fell back below $11; $GT was down 1.9% today at around $10.90. 4. Bullish and bearish views became completely polarized today: BitMine's Tom Lee continued to issue strongly bullish calls, while Yi Lihua, founder of LD Capital, said $BTC had entered a clear downtrend across all indicators; traders also warned that $ETH and $XRP could have another 10% downside before truly stabilizing. 5. Funding pressure is emerging among institutions and miners: Bitcoin miners are facing widening costs in financing their AI transformation, prompting lenders to tighten scrutiny; an altcoin treasury company sold $138 million within five days; the High Court of England and Wales ruled in the Zhi Zhi Min case that Chinese law applies to claims over 61,000 $BTC , meaning victims may struggle to receive a share of these assets. In derivatives, the long-short ratio fell to 0.942, while $ETH stood at 0.944; open interest was $52.2 B, with leverage remaining low. 6. Among major coins, $ETH was relatively resilient at around $2,512 (-1.4%); $SOL fell to around $107.7 (-4.1%), breaking below $110; $XRP was the weakest major coin at around $1.36 (-4.1%). XRP Ledger's spoofing vulnerability was confirmed to have existed since 2015, while Evernorth's Nasdaq listing also failed to lift the price. 7. Altcoins: $RSR was today's strongest mover, up 36.9% at around $0.00225, with trading volume of approximately $169.6 M; $W rose 14.5% with trading volume of around $361.2 M, and $PYTH followed with a gain of 11.6%. Meanwhile, $STRK , which had risen for four consecutive days, plunged 20.1% today, validating yesterday's warning not to chase the rally. Buy recommendation: $PYTH (around $0.086)—trading volume of approximately $104 million versus a market cap of $677 million, with the DAO having raised its revenue buyback ratio to 100%. It is the only one among today's countertrend gainers supported by a cash-flow-based buyback mechanism. Today's market status: $BTC around $82,488 (-1.8%); $ETH around $2,512 (-1.4%). Today's decline was caused by three factors: geopolitical conflicts drove up oil prices and suppressed global risk appetite, funds actively reduced exposure ahead of the CPI release, and profit-taking in previously leading altcoins ($STRK -20%) spread to major coins; RSI fell back to the midpoint of 50.0, while the long-short ratio was 0.942, leaving the direction at a critical juncture. Next-day outlook: $BTC is expected to see increased volatility tomorrow, with a range of approximately $80 K–$86 K and a 45/100 bullish probability. The key level is $82 K; a break below it would directly test the psychological and cost-based support at $80 K, while reclaiming $84 K would be necessary to restart the recovery. Long liquidations accounted for 67%, and the long-short ratio fell to 0.942, returning short-term control to the bears; however, open interest was only $52.2 B and the funding rate had compressed to 0.0014%/8 h. Extremely light leverage means the decline is more likely to be a mild spot-driven pullback. CPI data will directly determine the direction—if it comes in above expectations, $80 K will be difficult to hold; if below expectations, the window for a rebound to $86 K will open.