$ONDO Current price is 0.4119, with resistance at 0.4158 and support at 0.3957. These two levels will determine who controls the short-term battle between bulls and bears. First, the method: To judge whether the trend is healthy, I usually look at three factors: “moving average alignment + RSI position + MACD momentum.” Currently, MA5=0.40898 is below MA20=0.41577, forming the initial shape of a bearish alignment in which the short-term moving average is suppressed by the medium-term moving average, indicating that the rebound has not truly regained the initiative. RSI=50.8 is right at the midpoint, with neither bulls nor bears having the upper hand. The MACD histogram is -0.001227, so momentum remains in the bears’ hands. The Bollinger Bands range from 0.3957 to 0.4359, and the price is moving just below the middle band, forming a typical range-bound, slightly weak structure. However, two details are worth noting: First, the funding rate is +0.0050%, with longs still paying, indicating that market sentiment has not shifted into panic. Second, the Fear and Greed Index is 71, in the greed zone, indicating that overall market risk appetite remains intact. These two points suggest that ONDO is more likely undergoing a pullback than a breakdown. In terms of operations, I favor lightly entering long positions in the 0.4000 to 0.4060 range, which is near the lower Bollinger Band and MA5 support. Take-profit 1 is at 0.4160, corresponding to the MA20 resistance level; take-profit 2 is at 0.4350, near the upper Bollinger Band. Set the stop-loss at 0.3930. A break below the lower Bollinger Band would indicate that the structure has deteriorated, so exit unconditionally. Also monitor: $SOL and $XRP , which fell 3.05% and 3.64% respectively over 24h, with both RSI values near 41. They are weaker than ONDO, indicating that funds have not yet flowed back into the major coins, while ONDO’s independent resilience is instead a positive factor. (Personal opinion for reference only; this does not constitute investment advice. Contracts carry extremely high risk, so strictly control your position size.) [Data] Coin: ONDOUSDT Direction: Long Entry: 0.4000-0.4060 Take-profit 1: 0.4160 Take-profit 2: 0.4350 Stop-loss: 0.3930

Does a breakdown in the moving averages necessarily mean going bearish? Not necessarily—the key is where the price sits within the Bollinger Bands and whether the funding rate confirms it. Take $XRP as an example: the current price is 1.3778, MA5=1.37882 has fallen below MA20=1.39916, and the MACD histogram is -0.003317, forming a standard short-term bearish alignment. But breaking it down: RSI=39.1 has not yet entered the oversold zone, indicating that selling pressure has not been fully released; the lower Bollinger Band at 1.35576 is right below, and the price is moving along the lower band, showing weakness but no breakdown yet. What truly deserves attention is the funding rate of +0.0100%—the price is falling while the funding rate remains positive, indicating that longs are still paying to hold their positions. This structure often means another drop is still ahead. A reusable method: trend health = moving-average alignment + RSI position + funding-rate direction. Only when all three point in the same direction is the trend clean; when they diverge, trade the range rather than breakouts. Directionally, I favor looking bearish after a rebound: entry reference 1.392-1.400 (a pullback near MA20, also resistance below the Bollinger middle band), take-profit 1 at 1.356 (the lower Bollinger Band, where a first touch is likely to trigger a rebound), take-profit 2 at 1.330 (the extension target after breaking below the lower band), and stop-loss at 1.418 (the bearish thesis is invalidated if price reclaims MA20). The Fear & Greed Index remains in the greed zone at 71, meaning sentiment has not been cleared out; a rebound is an opportunity to reduce positions, not a reason to chase longs. Also monitor: $SYN and $RAY , down -15.17% and -9.88% respectively over 24 hours. Both have the same MA5

Last Week: Bad Headlines. Green Close. 📊 The tape ate three punches and still finished above $80K. What happened (Sep 14–20) Tue: CLARITY cloture failed 49–50. BTC wicked $74.9K–$75.6K. Wed: Fed hiked +25 bp to 3.75%–4.00%. First hike since 2023. Dots still hawkish. Dip bought. Thu–Fri: SEC tokenized-stock exemption + CFTC draft sent to the White House. Market read it as rules without Congress. Fri: Short squeeze + ETF flip. ~$433M spot BTC inflow. BTC ripped $76.3K → $81.9K. Scoreboard • $BTC : $75K low → $80.3K–$80.5K. First $80K closes since Sep 7. • $ETH : ~$2,360 → $2,60x. Still under $2,650–$2,750. • $SOL : lagged midweek, then led Friday (~+$10% print). • $XRP : $1.25 low → $1.38–$1.41. • $HYPE : new highs on the Friday bid. • Memes: lagged. Liquidity stayed in majors. What next week is (Sep 21–25) No FOMC. No Senate vote. This is a digest week. Watch: Does $80K hold as support? Weekly close above it matters. Lose it → $76K is back. $82.2K then $83K. Sellers have parked there since late August. Close above $83K = trend. Fail = range. ETF tape. Friday’s inflow has to repeat. One-day squeeze dies without spot bid. US data (PCE window). Hot print = dollar bid, risk fade. Soft print = alts get a second leg. Rotation test. If BTC chops $80–83K, look at ETH $2,650, SOL, XRP $1.46 — not random listing memes. Base case: $78K–$83K range. Bulls win if $80K holds the first red day. Bears win if Sunday’s cool-off becomes a Monday fade under $80K. ‍ Not financial advice.