Everyone said Bitcoin would rise in October, but it first hit a new low since early September. Looking back at this painful weekend. Bitcoin briefly plunged to $80,427 during Thursday's U.S. session, its lowest since early September and another leg lower than Wednesday's drop. Over the two weekend days, it slowly climbed back to around $83k. Over 24 hours it looks like a gain, but in reality it was only a weak rebound of a few tenths of a point. That much-discussed “Uptober” has now completely lost steam. Historically, Bitcoin has indeed tended to perform well in October, but the market has a way of teaching believers in such patterns a lesson. The calendar will not provide a floor for you; when the market really falls, seasonality is worthless. Some analysts have already said explicitly: don’t assume Bitcoin has bottomed just because it’s October—there is still room to fall. I stayed out of the market all weekend, so looking back, I managed to avoid Thursday’s wick. But I also won’t feel safe just because the price has returned to $83k. The rebound at this level is struggling even to hold $83k, while $85k and $87k above are both packed with trapped holders. The $80k round-number level below was just tested on Thursday—a typical situation where it can’t move higher, while the downside remains uncertain. U.S. stocks remain closed today, Sunday, so it will most likely be another low-volume sideways session. To really see the direction, we’ll have to wait for Monday’s open, when institutions return. My plan is simple: if it returns above $83k and $85k on strong volume tomorrow, I’ll consider following in; if it can’t hold $80k, I’ll instead wait for it to fully flush out. For today, just keep watching this thin market. The urge to trade is the biggest enemy of the weekend. $BTC $ETH ‌ Personal record, not investment advice. Futures trading carries extremely high risk

A 13.3k ETH long position, worth $33.34 million, at 25x cross margin—is now sitting on an unrealized loss of $498.9k, with a -37.41% return. Even more striking, cumulative funding fees have already eaten up $1.3534 million, while the liquidation price is set at $2,465.33. The account’s total P&L has reached -$35.5047 million, with another $7.8649 million lost over the past 7 days. Total assets are down to just $2.4146 million, with zero available margin. A $122.1k recovery over 24 hours is practically nothing in the face of a position worth tens of millions. The concern is not how much he has lost now, but how much room for error remains on this long position. If ETH moves lower, margin pressure will only intensify; even trying to turn things around with a rebound first requires surviving the volatility along the way. Of course, the liquidation price does not mean liquidation is imminent; the actual situation also depends on the margin and exchange rules. Do you think this position can turn things around on a rebound, or are we about to witness another whale liquidation? $ETH

One Year After the 10·10 Crypto Crash, Why Have BTC and ETH Recovered While Altcoins Haven’t? The most painful part of the crypto market isn’t the crash itself, but realizing afterward that basically no one is willing to buy the dip. Yesterday marked the one-year anniversary of the crypto market’s “10·10” crash. On October 10, 2025, more than $19 billion in positions were liquidated across the crypto market in a single day. Many people who traded futures probably still remember that day. A year later, CoinDesk Research released a set of pretty sobering data: The liquidity depth within a 1% price range of the BTC order book has increased by about 75% compared with the day of last year’s crash. ETH’s liquidity has also recovered significantly. But altcoins are a completely different story. Among the altcoins in the research sample, dollar liquidity depth within a 5% price range has instead fallen by about one-third compared with the beginning of 2025. Put simply, buyers have returned for BTC and ETH, while many altcoins are still waiting for capital. There used to be a very popular narrative in crypto: BTC rises first, then ETH, and once ETH rises, altcoins broadly take off. But now I’m increasingly skeptical that this logic can still be applied as-is. New coins keep proliferating, but capital isn’t increasing indefinitely. In the future, there may not be no altcoin season; rather, only a small number of projects may truly break out. Do you think the next bull market will see the kind of broad-based altcoin rally we saw in 2021? #Crypto #Altcoins