You have your broad sunny path, I have my narrow plank bridge. You just keep rising, little US stocks, watch how my crypto circle continues to fluctuate. The higher you stand, the harder you fall. I’ve been crouching all along; falling hurts less that way. This is the current state of the crypto world. The S&P has climbed above 7800, closing at a new high, and Wall Street has already started calling for 8000. On the other hand, Bitcoin fell below 63000, and Ethereum returned to 1870. Under the same macro backdrop, capital has made its choice. Today, the biggest gainers were the three storage giants—SanDisk surged 13% in one day, Micron rose 4%, and SK Hynix gained 7%. But it’s not just them; Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia are all up. This new high in the S&P is actually quite healthy—not propped up by a single sector, but a broad rally. CPI and PPI both cooled down, the probability of a rate hike dropped to 30%, oil prices fell, and US Treasury yields declined. These three positive factors combined, capital is piling into the entire tech chain. Meanwhile, the crypto world remains stagnant. Inflation cooling is clearly positive, but capital simply hasn’t come. $BTC fell below 63000—what’s the key signal? Whales are offloading. On-chain data shows that large holders have been continuously reducing their positions over the past week, while BTC inflows to exchanges are increasing a classic sign of selling ahead. The ETF side is even more direct: on August 13, there was a net outflow of $131 million, with Fidelity pulling out $55.12 million, Ark $58.82 million, and even BlackRock $5.74 million. Since mid-July, ETF inflows have plummeted by 80%. $ETH is also about to fail to hold 1870, weaker in the short term, but capital flow is already shifting. I will slowly buy below 1850, but won’t chase above 1900. The logic on both sides is different now—BTC is digesting selling pressure, ETH is waiting for a catalyst. Once the political cards are played and liquidity truly shifts, ETH’s resilience will emerge first. Regulatory negotiations have dragged on with no results, and ETF funds are flowing out; these issues can’t be solved by macro factors. Ultimately, US stocks are trading political narratives and industry trends, while crypto is still waiting for liquidity to truly turn. Both are going their own way. US stocks are charging toward 8000, crypto is holding at 60000. Looking back in six months, one of these markets will definitely be overly optimistic, and the other overly pessimistic. Which is which, I can’t say for sure now, but my intuition tells me the optimism in US stocks might be overextended, and the pessimism in crypto might be overdone. Or maybe it’s just a matter of mindset being too good.

$ETH Ethereum can be bought; its performance in this cycle should be somewhat stronger than BTC: 1. Since July, Ethereum spot ETFs have basically seen net inflows continuously, with outflows occurring only occasionally. Retail investors were essentially scared away by the weakness in previous months, and institutions are now leading the dip-buying. 2. Moreover, institutions are not just buying the dip. Fidelity, Morgan, and others are applying to earn some interest through staking. This shows that they are buying the dip for medium- to long-term investment, so they will not become potential selling pressure in the short term. 3. Why do I say that retail investors have exited? Because the amount of ETH held on exchanges has hit a new low. Institutions have also been quietly accumulating through ETFs, pushing the ETH/BTC ratio back from 0.024 in May to 0.030 (+25%), showing clear strength. My view is to remain bullish. If the upward trend gets underway, with fewer retail investors, it should be one of the cleanest long-term assets.

Today’s Bitcoin strategy was once again fully validated, with Bitcoin moving lower as expected and capturing 700➕ points of room #GateLaunchpool瓜分141万枚DOS $BTC $ETH .