Technical Outlook: SOL Strengthens Recovery, but Broader Trend Remains Bearish Solana is extending its short-term recovery after successfully defending the $72–73 demand zone, with price rebounding toward $74.7. Buyers have regained momentum, and RSI has moved back above the neutral level. However, SOL continues to trade below all major moving averages, keeping the broader trend bearish despite the improving short-term outlook. 📈 EMA Structure (Bearish) 20 EMA: $71.82 50 EMA: $75.25 100 EMA: $81.76 200 EMA: $97.41 Price has reclaimed the 20 EMA, which is now acting as immediate dynamic support. SOL remains below the 50, 100, and 200 EMAs, meaning the larger trend is still bearish. The higher EMAs continue to slope downward, confirming that bulls still face strong overhead resistance. 👉 SOL needs to reclaim the $75.3–81.8 resistance zone to confirm a stronger bullish recovery. 📐 Fibonacci & Market Structure Price remains well below the 0.236 Fibonacci level at $111.18, confirming the macro trend remains bearish. The successful defense of the $72–73 support zone has allowed buyers to build short-term momentum. While the recent bounce has improved market structure on the lower timeframe, the broader trend still consists of lower highs. A continuation rally could target: $75.25 (50 EMA) $76.97 $81.37–81.76 (100 EMA) $87.00 if bullish momentum accelerates. Failure to hold current support could lead to: $74.00 $72.50 $70.00 if sellers regain control. 🧠 ICT / Smart Money View Sell-side liquidity below the recent lows has already been swept, fueling the ongoing recovery. Multiple Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) remain overhead and could continue attracting price higher. The previous bearish Market Structure Shift (MSS) remains valid on the higher timeframe. Current price action appears to be a relief rally within a broader downtrend until major resistance levels are reclaimed. 📉 RSI Momentum RSI (14): 54.9 RSI has recovered above the neutral 50 level. Momentum is improving, indicating buyers currently have the short-term advantage. Holding above 50 would support continuation toward higher resistance zones. 📊 Key Levels 🔴 Resistance $75.25 (50 EMA) $76.97 $81.37–81.76 (100 EMA) $97.41 (200 EMA) 🟢 Support $74.00–74.70 (Immediate support) $72.50 $70.00 (Major support) 📌 Final Outlook SOL is showing stronger signs of recovery after reclaiming the 20 EMA and pushing RSI back above 50, suggesting buyers are regaining short-term control. Nevertheless, the broader trend remains bearish as price continues to trade below the 50, 100, and 200 EMAs and key Fibonacci resistance levels. ✅ A sustained move above $75.3–76.9 would strengthen the short-term bullish outlook and could trigger a rally toward $81–82. ✅ Reclaiming the 100 EMA around $81.8 would be the first meaningful signal that the broader trend is beginning to shift bullish. ❌ Losing the $74–72.5 support zone could expose $70 in the next leg lower. Overall Bias: Neutral to Bearish. Short-term momentum has improved significantly, but bulls must reclaim the 50 EMA and 100 EMA resistance cluster before a broader trend reversal can be confirmed. $SOL ‌

June 30, 2026 SOL/USDT Futures Technical Analysis (Daily + Monthly Close) Current Price: Around $72.4. Overall Structure: Medium-term bearish trend remains intact, short-term oversold bounce repair, classified as a weak rebound. All bounces should be treated as opportunities to short. Linked with BTC, it synchronizes monthly closing fluctuations. SOL has stronger elasticity, with larger price swings than BTC. Strictly control positions in futures trading. I. Trend Cycle Qualification 1. Daily Level (Major Trend Setting) 1. Moving Average Suppression: The price continues to operate below the 20-day MA ($72.49), 50-day MA ($74.96), and 200-day MA ($139.67). All MAs are bearishly aligned, the medium-term downward channel remains intact without damage, and all MAs act as layers of resistance. 2. Candlestick Structure: Highs continue to decline, low points show slight stabilization with small bullish candles. This is only an oversold stabilization, with no bottom reversal candlestick pattern, indicating a consolidation pattern within a downtrend. 3. Bollinger Bands: The daily Bollinger Bands open downward, with the price operating just above the lower band. The downward channel is valid. The middle band at $75 and the upper band at $79 are medium-term strong resistance zones. 2. 4-Hour Level (Intraday Futures Trading Cycle) A small recovery rebound has formed in the short term. The short-term EMA has turned upward to provide short-term support, but the rebound volume is diminishing. RSI=35, exiting extreme oversold territory and entering a neutral-to-low zone, leaving limited room for further rebound. MACD: Golden cross below the zero line, with very weak red bars. This only indicates exhaustion of bearish momentum, not a bullish reversal. Overall, the 4-hour level shows a weak volatile rebound. The rebound is likely to turn down quickly when hitting moving average resistance. II. Precise Resistance and Support Levels (For Futures Order Reference) Above Resistance (Near to Far) 1. Intraday Bull/Bear Divide: $73.5. Holding above this level gives short-term bulls continuity; failing to hold leads to pressure and decline throughout the day. 2. First Short-Term Strong Resistance: $74.8~$75.5 (50-day MA + previous dense top-bottom transition zone). This is the core short entry area for this rebound. 3. Medium-Term Trend Resistance: $78. Only with a volume breakout and holding above $78 can the bearish structure be temporarily alleviated; otherwise, all bounces are bull traps. Below Support (Near to Far) 1. Intraday Short-Term Defensive Support: $70. The last defense line for intraday bulls. If the 4-hour candle closes below it, a decline resumes. 2. Phase Strong Support: $68 (recent low, weekly Bollinger Band lower band support). Breaking below opens downward space. 3. Ultimate Monthly Support: $65. On-chain concentrated support. If effectively lost, it will trigger a deep drop toward the target of $53. III. Core Indicator Interpretation 1. RSI 35: Oversold repair completed, entering neutral zone. No incremental funds above, so no conditions for sustained upward movement. 2. MACD: Fast and slow lines golden cross below zero line. Bullish momentum is extremely weak, a passive repair with no active buying volume. 3. Volume: Overall shrinking on monthly close, capital is clearly in a wait-and-see and outflow mode. Rebound volume is insufficient, decline volume is low, typical weak volatile characteristics. 4. Correlation: Movement fully follows BTC. Rebound strength slightly stronger than BTC, but the speed of pulling back is faster, showing stronger bearish nature. IV. Two Futures Execution Plans (Primary: Shorting Highs; Secondary: Light Short-Term Longs) Plan 1: Shorting on Strength (Preferred Strategy, Aligned with Major Trend) • Entry Range: Open short in batches at $74.5~$75.3 when showing resistance and stagnation • Stop Loss: $76 (if volume breaks through the resistance zone, short logic invalidates) • Take Profit 1: $71.5, Take Profit 2: $70, Ultimate target down to $68 Plan 2: Oversold Short-Term Long (Only Light Position Gambling, Quick Entry and Exit) • Entry Range: Buy on stabilization at $70.2~$70.8 • Stop Loss: $69.7 (candle body breaks below intraday support) • Take Profit 1: $73, Take Profit 2: $74.5, Exit all at resistance, do not hold for a bullish trend. V. Scenario Analysis (Two Outcomes for Monthly Close) 1. Bearish Scenario (75% Probability) Price rebounds to the $74.8~$75.5 resistance zone, meets resistance and falls back, closes bearish. Monthly continues its consecutive bearish trend. Early July begins a second test of support at $68 and $65. 2. Volatile Repair Scenario (25% Probability) Slightly higher volume holds above $73.5, tests $78 resistance and falls back, closing with a long upper shadow small bullish candle. Still unable to reverse the medium-term bearish structure. VI. Mandatory Risk Control Rules for Futures 1. Prohibit heavy bottom-fishing before $65 is confirmed as a major-level stabilization. All longs are only for short-term quick entries and exits. 2. SOL volatility is greater than BTC. Single position size should not exceed 6% of total capital. Do not hold positions or add to positions against the trend. 3. Above $75.5, without sustained volume, any rally is not a reversal signal but only an opportunity to short. #Solana生态ANSEM暴涨 $SOL ‌

Goodbye, Bitcoin "Pixiu"; Hello, Digital Age "Central Bank" The man who only bought and never sold has changed his heart. On June 29, Strategy dropped a nuclear bomb. It launched the "Digital Credit Capital Framework". The name sounds high-end, but in plain English it's one sentence: From now on, not only will I buy, but I will also sell, and I will use Bitcoin to lend and make money. As soon as the news came out, MSTR stock price surged 12%. But Bitcoin itself first rose then fell, again dropping below $60k. What happened? First, break a deeply ingrained old belief— In the past few years, the market gave MSTR a super high premium precisely because it was a "Bitcoin Pixiu". Only in, no out, always absorbing chips. Like a black hole, sucking in all the BTC from the market. What everyone bet on was: this black hole would never spit anything out. But now, the black hole has an "exit mechanism". The board explicitly authorized: under three specific circumstances, it can sell BTC. Simultaneously launched a $1.25 billion BTC financing plan. A $1 billion digital credit securities repurchase. The dividend rate directly hit 12%. The most heartbreaking part—Strategy publicly announced: did not buy BTC last week. This is the first time since the "BTC Treasury" strategy to publicly pause accumulation. You think this is bearish? Your perspective is too small. Saylor doesn't not love Bitcoin anymore. He wants to turn Bitcoin from "dead money" into "living money". In the past, Strategy's BTC could only sit on the balance sheet as decoration. Now? Stake, lend, earn interest spreads, and give back to shareholders. To put it plainly, Strategy is evolving from a "large holder" to a "Bitcoin Bank". No longer just hoarding coins waiting for price increase. Instead, actively manage, let BTC generate interest, earn spreads, do buybacks, and pay dividends. Tell a brand new story to Wall Street: "We are not gamblers, we are the credit central bank of the digital age." But why did the market first rise and then fall? Because smart money suddenly realized a problem: The biggest bull may in the future do risk hedging at high levels. In the past, everyone felt confident buying BTC because they knew Strategy would keep buying, buying, buying. Now, this narrative of "eternal buying pressure" has cracked open a gap. Once BTC rises to a certain level, Strategy may not continue to chase the rally. It may even, according to the framework, operate to buy low and sell high at specific high levels. This is a real blow to BTC's short-term sentiment. So BTC fell below 60k. "When the biggest bull learns to do 'swing trading', Bitcoin's volatility may decrease, but MSTR's stock price must be revalued. From 'large holder' to 'digital credit giant'—this is the new script Saylor wrote for Wall Street. Those who understand are already recalculating the valuation model. Those who don't understand are still asking 'Why isn't he buying anymore?'." Finally, ask you a question: If Strategy really becomes a "Bitcoin Bank", relying on staking BTC to lend and earn interest spreads, Do you think this will make BTC more stable or more fragile? By the way, MSTR stock rose 12% while BTC fell—the market is telling everyone: Saylor's company is no longer just a shadow of BTC. It has its own story. #TradFiCFD黄金大师赛 #Saylor暗示增持BTC $BTC $ETH $SOL