What are you panicking about with ETH at $1,875?
First, look at the surface: it has fallen from $4,950 to $1,875, nearly being cut in half.
It has fallen nearly half over the past year, plunging to a low of $1,550–$1,600 in June, rebounding to $1,980 before being knocked back, and now hovering around $1,875. Weekly gains are approximately 11% and monthly gains approximately 20%. The medium-term trend is still continuing, but $2,000 is like an impenetrable wall that just cannot be breached. There is support around $1,850, but $1,980 has been rejected three times—the bulls and bears are fighting with knives here, and whoever gives up first is out.
First: ETFs are diverging, but BlackRock is quietly adding to its holdings.
Yesterday (August 3), spot Ethereum ETFs recorded net outflows of $11.42 million, ending two consecutive days of net inflows. Sounds alarming?
But look closely—BlackRock’s staking ETF ETHB recorded a single-day net inflow of $5.78 million, bringing its cumulative historical inflows to $550 million. Meanwhile, BlackRock’s ETHA saw net outflows of $9.03 million.
Second: Supply is tightening—what are you panicking about?
Ethereum’s staking rate has reached approximately 34%, with more than 41 million ETH locked in staking contracts. The ETH supply ratio on exchanges has fallen to 0.127—the lowest level in years.
More than one-third of circulating ETH is locked up and cannot be sold.
There are fewer and fewer coins on exchanges, leaving little available for a sell-off.
Institutions such as BitMine are continuing to accumulate coins, targeting holdings equivalent to nearly 5% of the total supply.
Supply is shrinking while the price is falling—this is a classic “divergence.”
Third: Glamsterdam is coming, potentially the biggest upgrade since the Merge.
The Glamsterdam upgrade, scheduled to launch in the second half of 2026, entered its final devnet phase in June. The core elements of this upgrade are ePBS (separation of block building), block-level access lists, and a target gas limit of 200 million.
Transactions will become faster and cheaper, with a substantial increase in throughput.
The block-building mechanism will be completely restructured, optimizing the MEV problem.
This is the most ambitious protocol overhaul since the Merge.
Fourth: The macro is the steering wheel—don’t fight the Federal Reserve.
At its late-July meeting, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, but the vote shifted from unanimous approval in June to 9–3, with three members calling for a rate hike. This was the fifth consecutive meeting at which rates were left unchanged.
The key events this week:
August 7 nonfarm payrolls—soft data would be bullish, while strong data would intensify rate-hike expectations.
August 12–13 CPI—sticky inflation is the biggest risk.
Jackson Hole at the end of the month—a window for policy signals.
The macro theme remains “soft landing vs. reflation.” If the data turns dovish, ETH will recover alongside BTC; if the data turns hawkish, it will remain under pressure.
The bull-bear showdown—judge for yourself.
On one side:
A 34% staking rate, 41 million ETH locked, and exchange balances at multi-year lows.
ETH is 17% below the average on-chain holding cost, making its valuation severely undervalued.
The Glamsterdam upgrade is imminent—the biggest update since the Merge.
July ETF net inflows of $365 million, the best in nine months, with BlackRock continuing to add to its holdings.
Weekly gains of 11% and monthly gains of 20%, with the medium-term trend still continuing.
On the other side:
It has fallen from $4,950 to $1,875, nearly being cut in half, with sentiment extremely bearish.
$2,000 has been rejected three times, with heavy selling pressure.
ETF net outflows of $11.42 million yesterday interrupted the streak of consecutive inflows.
The Federal Reserve’s 9–3 split vote means rate-hike expectations have not been fully eliminated.
Macro data is coming in thick and fast, and any negative surprise could trigger a sell-off.
Key levels
Resistance above: $1,880–$1,890 → $1,930–$1,950 (the descending trendline rejected three times) → $2,000 (the psychological barrier).
Support below: $1,845–$1,850 → $1,830–$1,820 → $1,800 (the iron floor) → $1,750/$1,700.
Short-term traders:
Buy lightly on a pullback to $1,845–$1,860, set a stop-loss below $1,820, and target $1,885–$1,930, reducing positions at resistance. Short near $1,890–$1,930 on a rally, set a stop-loss above $1,950, and target $1,850/$1,800.
Swing traders:
If the daily candle holds above $1,930 on strong volume, go long and target $2,000–$2,100, with a stop-loss at $1,880. If the daily close breaks below $1,830–$1,845, reduce positions or switch short and target $1,750–$1,700.
Long-term believers:
Build medium- to long-term long positions in batches at $1,800–$1,850, initially targeting $2,200–$2,500, with a stop-loss at $1,650. Fundamentals are supportive, institutions are accumulating, and the upgrade is on the way—but remember, the macro is the steering wheel. Wait until the NFP and CPI data are released before taking large positions.
Risk-control rules:
No single trade should exceed 5%–10% of total capital.
Leverage should not exceed 5x–10x.
Reduce positions and wait on the sidelines three days before macro data releases.
Prioritize spot positions; staying alive is the most important thing.
When ETH fell to $880 in 2022, everyone said, “It’s going to zero.” When it rose to $2,000 in 2023, everyone said, “The rebound is over.” When it rose to $4,000 in 2024, everyone said, “It’s too expensive to buy.”
Now it is at $1,875, and you are afraid to buy again.
Before the Glamsterdam upgrade, while institutions are accumulating and supply is tightening—every bull market starts when the vast majority of people “don’t dare to buy.”#Gate上线宇树科技盘前合约 #Gate储备金率117% #Strategy再售1637枚BTC并回购STRC $BTC $ETH $SOL
