Retail Buyers Stay Active, But Face Pressure From Institutional Sellers

Recent data indicates that retail buyers—those transacting in the 1,000 to 10,000 BTC range—have consistently entered the market, with buying momentum notably increasing after the steep weekend decline in both spot and perpetual futures. On Coinbase alone, net purchases exceeded $101.2 million. In contrast, institutional and whale investors—executing trades in the 1 million to 10 million BTC range—have continued to reduce exposure. Across the derivatives markets on Binance and Coinbase, roughly $750 million worth of long positions were liquidated, significantly weakening the support from retail buyers.

Price Action and Short-Term Outlook

During the recent sell-off, Bitcoin briefly dropped to about $108,600 before rebounding to around $112,000—a modest recovery of approximately 3.8% from its low. Currently, BTC is trading in a short-term downward channel. Retail buyers are eyeing a rebound into the $117,000 to $118,000 range. However, sustained institutional selling makes this target difficult to achieve in the near term.

Critical BTC Risk Factors

The market absorbed substantial buying within the $111,000 to $110,000 range, with another key liquidity zone forming near $104,000. If the pace of selling continues to slow, Bitcoin may test the $120,000 psychological threshold. However, there is a significant risk of a drop toward $105,000 if selling pressure increases.

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Key Insights for Investors

In the short term, BTC’s price trajectory will continue to hinge on changes in Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD). If selling pressure from large capital slows and aligns with the optimism of retail buyers, new price support may emerge. If the divergence continues, the market could enter a prolonged consolidation.