#CorePCEandGDPFinalReading $XAUT $US500 $BTC $ETH Core PCE "Cooled" to 3.0% Because the Ruler Changed, Not Because Prices Did: A Deep Dive Into the Print, the GDP Revision and What Markets Did Next The market walked into Wednesday expecting core PCE at +0.3% on the month and 3.3% on the year, with headline at 3.7%. What printed was 0.2% and 3.0%, with headline at 3.4%. That looks like a clean miss, and the first reaction treated it that way. But the detail that matters sits in the revisions. The annual update changed how software, legal services and portfolio fees are measured, and July core was restated from 3.3% to 3.0% while July headline went from 3.7% to 3.4%. On the new series, core was 3.0% in July and 3.0% in August. The 3.3% everyone was comparing against belonged to a ruler that no longer exists, and the annual rate did not actually fall. Look at the monthly numbers on the same basis and the story flips slightly. Core rose 0.2% against a revised 0.1% in July, and headline rose 0.3% against 0.1%. Momentum picked up, and energy did most of the work: gasoline rose 4.4%, energy overall rose 2.3%, and transportation services rose 1.4%. That matters because Brent finished September about 14% higher and is sitting near 106, so that pass-through has not been fully booked yet. The September PCE report lands on October 29, a day after the Fed decides on October 28. The committee will have to make its call without seeing the next inflation print. The spending side is where I think the report is most revealing. Nominal spending jumped 0.9% and real spending rose 0.6%, the strongest since March 2025. But real disposable income was flat at 0.0%, and the saving rate dropped from 4.6% to 4.1%, the lowest since late 2022. Part of the goods surge, $114.1B against $76.7B for services, is payback for a July in which goods spending fell $38.4B. Households spent from savings, not from income, while consumer confidence sat near a 12-and-a-half year low in September. Strong spending, weak confidence and flat real income is not a durable mix, and a central bank hiking into it is leaning on consumers who are already running down their buffers. The final Q2 GDP tells a similar story. Growth was revised up to 2.2% from 1.5%, with Q1 now at 2.5%. Final sales to private domestic purchasers grew 4.6%, up from 4.2%, and income-side growth was revised to 2.6% from 2.2%, helped by AI-related equipment spending running at double-digit rates. At the same time the price side was revised down: Q2 core PCE to 3.3% annualized from 3.6%, and headline PCE to 5.0% from 5.3%. So the final read is stronger growth and slightly less inflation, but the growth is driven by AI capex and savings, not wages. That is neither stagflation nor a clean goldilocks, and it is exactly why the Fed cannot simply declare victory. Here is what higher for longer means now. After the September 16 hike, the first since 2023, the debate moved from when cuts return to how many hikes are left. October hike odds fell from about 70% to about 25% in a single week, helped by Williams and Jefferson saying more time is needed. After Friday's 29K payrolls, hold odds for October 27 to 28 rose to about 80%, but a December hike is still around 86% priced. My read is that the market is pricing two things at once. Wages at 3.0% year over year and a three-month payroll average near 50K give the Fed room to wait, while energy keeps inflation stuck near 3%, and raising rates does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz. I lean toward 86% for December being too aggressive. Cross-asset, the 72 hours since the print have been telling. The 10-year touched 5.344% on Thursday, the highest since 2002, and the 30-year about 5.69% intraday, then both eased. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,722.72, up 0.7%, above the 7,718.45 level that capped the hourly chart all week, with the Nasdaq up about 1.2% and Nvidia at a record. Gold fell about 6% in September, from 4,489 to 4,110, and is heading for a second weekly decline, with XAUT near 4,188 on Friday morning and still under its hourly 200 average at 4,221.7. Bitcoin jumped above 85,500 after the PCE print, fell below 83,500 within about ninety minutes, spiked to 87,250 after payrolls and now sits near 84,600. ETH has been rejected three times between 2,743 and 2,748. Equities are taking the softer data as a green light, while gold and crypto are still waiting for real yields to give them relief. My plan by asset. On US500 I am bullish while closes hold above 7,718.45, with invalidation on a close back under 7,675.94 and a first target near 7,770. On XAUT I stay neutral below 4,221.7. A close above that level targets 4,280, while a break under 4,157.4 puts the 4,110 September low back in play. On BTC the floor is 84,068 and the ceiling is 87,250 to 87,400, with invalidation on a daily close under 82,281. On ETH I am constructive while 2,676.07 holds, and only a daily close above 2,743 opens 2,787 to 2,805. If payrolls are adding 29K a month and wages are at 3.0%, does the Fed still hike in December because oil keeps inflation near 3%, or does a cooling labor market finally buy it time? Not financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading or investment decision.

# OneGate Witness Program ‍#每周来晒 Up 300% in 7 days to $370—what is QNT all about? Why did QNT surge 300% in 7 days and break above $370? As of September 28, QNT had gained approximately 297% over the week, reaching an intraday high of $373 before falling back to around $260. The surge was fueled by the U.S. clearinghouse The Clearing House selecting Quant as the technology provider for a tokenized deposit network, with 25 major U.S. banks participating. Is the $370 level the starting point for the traditional finance on-chain narrative, or a short-term short squeeze driven by thin circulation? What is QNT? QNT is the native token of British fintech company Quant Network. Its core positioning is not as a public blockchain, but as cross-chain interoperability and programmable-money infrastructure for financial institutions. The core product, Overledger, serves as a middleware layer between traditional financial systems and different blockchains, allowing banks to connect to tokenized deposits and digital assets without rebuilding their existing systems. Let’s look at QNT’s real-world adoption cases: On September 26, 2026, seven British banks completed the world’s first real customer payment transactions involving tokenized GBP deposits through the Quant platform, covering mortgage refinancing and marketplace peer-to-peer payments. In the same month, The Clearing House selected Quant to provide the interoperability layer for a tokenized deposit network involving 25 U.S. banks. The network processes more than $2 trillion in clearing volume per day and is expected to launch in the first half of 2027. These cases show that QNT’s use has moved from technical validation into early production environments in regulated financial scenarios. QNT token fundamentals QNT was issued on Ethereum, with a fixed maximum supply of 14.88 million tokens and no inflation mechanism; its current circulating supply is approximately 12.07 million, or about 81%. Around September 28, 2026, catalyzed by the partnership with The Clearing House, QNT’s market capitalization briefly surged to approximately $1.8 billion before falling back to around $1 billion. Approximately 2 million tokens held by the company remain unlocked, creating potential issuance pressure. At press time, QNT was priced at $255.49, up 12.8% over 24 hours. The token’s core uses include: Platform license fee payments Read/write operation fees Staking and node participation Token value capture Why did QNT surge 300% in 7 days—TCH partnership and short-squeeze resonance The news lit the fuse, and the market added fuel. Was QNT’s surge ultimately a value reassessment driven by the TCH partnership, or a short-term frenzy caused by shorts being forced to cover? Let’s break it down. TCH partnership valuation First, the news. On September 24, The Clearing House made a major move: it selected Quant to provide interoperability, coordination, and transaction management for its “On-Chain Money Initiative.” Put simply, the initiative aims to build an interoperable payment network capable of clearing and settling tokenized deposits, connecting existing payment systems such as RTP and CHIPS, and is expected to open to participating institutions in the first half of 2027. You may ask: Who is TCH? It is backed by 25 major U.S. banks and processes more than $2 trillion in payment clearing every day. As early as June, Bank of America, Citibank, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo had already endorsed it jointly. That is why this news is so important. Shorts forced to cover But if you think the partnership alone can explain a 300% gain, you are being too naive. We believe the real force behind the price taking off was the second factor: QNT’s market is too small, pushing shorts into a corner. QNT has a maximum supply of only approximately 14.88 million tokens, with a circulating supply of about 12.07 million, and no inflation mechanism. Once the news broke, 24-hour trading volume surged to 20 to 36 times the 30-day average. Short positions were liquidated in succession, with forced buying pushing the price from $65 all the way to $188. This is the standard short-squeeze script we often see: positive news lights the fire, thin supply adds fuel, and short covering pours on the oil. In our view, the most informative signal in this rally is not the percentage gain itself, but the fact that traditional clearing infrastructure has, for the first time, outsourced its interoperability layer to a blockchain company. The structural implications of this decision are far more worth watching than short-term price fluctuations. Is QNT a trend or a bubble? QNT token and revenue are not yet connected You may ask: If banks are using Quant, shouldn’t QNT rise? The logic is sound, but one link is missing. The TCH network is permissioned, and there has been no clear disclosure of exactly how QNT will be used or how revenue will be distributed within it. Put simply, adoption of Quant’s technology does not mean token holders will necessarily receive a share of the money. This accounting gap is what we should watch most closely. The network will not launch until 2027, but expectations have already run ahead The second risk is the time gap. The Quant network is not expected to open to participating institutions until the first half of 2027. From now until actual operations begin, any obstacle involving regulation, technology, or negotiations with banks could trigger a reversal in sentiment. We believe buyers today are not buying current revenue, but expectations for two years from now. Before expectations are fulfilled, they are most vulnerable to any disturbance. Holdings are too concentrated and the market is too thin The third risk lies in token holdings. Some research indicates that approximately seven wallets control more than half of QNT’s supply. A project with annual revenue of approximately $3 million has supported a market capitalization that once exceeded $900 million. The rise you see is driven more by institutional narratives and scarcity mechanisms than by measurable enterprise applications. A thin market rises quickly, but it will not fall gently. In the broader context, a Bitw*se survey of 15 institutions showed that the crypto market fell approximately 50% from October 2025 to April 2026, yet not a single institution reduced its crypto allocation. This suggests that institutions are more “sticky” with blockchain infrastructure assets than we thought. That is positive for QNT’s medium- to long-term narrative. In the short term, however, QNT has fallen from $370 to around $260, and technical indicators suggest it could retrace further to $254 or even $177. Summary: QNT is not a worthless coin, but $370 fully priced in the expectations. What needs to be tracked is not whether it rises or falls tomorrow, but whether, when the network launches in 2027, the cooperation with those 25 TCH banks can turn into quantifiable on-chain transaction volume and clear demand for the token. That is the dividing line between a trend and a bubble.

CAN THESE CRAZY BULL RUN TARGETS REALLY HAPPEN? Bull markets can push prices far beyond expectations, but market cap matters more than hype. $BTC at $195K, $ETH at $14.6K, and BNB above $3K are aggressive but still within the realm of a powerful bull cycle. $SOL at $2,300+ and $HYPE near $859 would require extremely large capital inflows. But PENGU at $10+ and PUMP above $7 would need valuations in the hundreds of billions to trillions making those targets far more difficult under current token supply.