BTC at $77,800—what are you afraid of? Look at the surface first: bad news is piling up, and retail traders are getting weak-kneed. Over the past week, BTC has fallen 5% from its $82,284 high, dropping 0.3%-2% over 24 hours, and is now stuck around $77,800. ETFs have posted $167 million in net outflows for two consecutive days, oil has broken above $100, the 10-year US Treasury yield has surged to 4.85%, and Germany is also planning to tax crypto. $77,700-$77,900 is a short-term demand zone, with moderate volume and no panic selling. Don’t cut losses at support; wait for CPI to come in before making a decision. First: ETF outflows totaled $167 million, but don’t let that scare you senseless. US spot BTC ETFs have posted $167 million in net outflows for two consecutive days, ending three weeks of strong inflows. ARKB led the decline. Cumulative ETF net inflows still stand at $55 billion. Two days of $167 million in outflows is not even a rounding error. Institutions are merely rebalancing and waiting on the sidelines ahead of CPI, not liquidating and running for the exits. Second: On-chain data doesn’t lie—long-term holders haven’t run at all. More than 71% of BTC’s supply is in unrealized profit, with 1.07 million BTC sitting above the cost basis and “playing dead.” Selling pressure from long-term holders has fallen to its lowest level in nearly a month, BTC dominance is at 58.6%, and capital is rotating into BTC while altcoins and Memes are falling even harder. Seasoned traders haven’t sold, while new traders are cutting losses Capital hasn’t left; it has merely retreated from altcoins into BTC The post-halving supply-contraction logic remains valid over the long term Third: Technically, price has reached a critical “break-or-make” level. The daily MACD has formed a bearish crossover, RSI has pulled back from overbought territory, and the 4-hour chart is moving through a descending channel/flag while testing $77,700-$77,900 support. From the June low of $58,000 to $82,000, BTC rose 40%, and is now pulling back 5%—that is normal breathing room in a bull market, not a trend reversal. Tomorrow’s CPI is the fuse. Hot data means a sell-off followed by a rebound; mild data means a direct bounce. Support: $77,700-$77,900 (current), $77,300 (liquidation cluster), $76,500-$77,000, $74,500 (EMA200) Resistance: $79,000-$79,100, $80,000-$82,200 (previous high + psychological level) Look at the battle between bulls and bears yourself On one side: $55 billion in cumulative ETF net inflows; institutions have not moved their core positions Long-term-holder selling pressure has hit a one-month low 71% of supply is in profit, with 1.07M BTC sitting idle BTC dominance is at 58.6%, with capital concentrating in the leader $77,700-$77,900 is the recent low + demand zone On the other side: $167 million in short-term ETF outflows, with sentiment leaning bearish Oil above $100, rising inflation expectations, and possible delays to rate cuts A bearish daily MACD crossover and weakening momentum If CPI comes in hotter than expected, another sell-off may follow German taxation + the approaching CLARITY Act vote are adding regulatory noise Trading strategy For short-term traders: If BTC stabilizes on shrinking volume or forms a hammer around $77,800, cautiously go long with a small position, set a stop-loss below $77,300, and target $79,000-$80,000. If it breaks below $77,600-$77,300 on heavy volume, don’t fight it; stay on the sidelines or cautiously short rebounds, targeting $76,500. For swing traders: The medium-term trend remains intact. Holding $76,500-$77,000 and reclaiming $80,000 would signal another attempt higher, with a target of $85,000+. A break below $76,000 would require reassessment and could lead to a retest near $72,000. For long-term believers: Use dollar-cost averaging in batches below $77,800. BTC is still the same BTC: post-halving supply contraction + the institutional ETF channel + the digital-gold narrative—none of it has changed. The target for the end of 2026 is $100,000+, betting on the return of the rate-cut cycle. BTC right now looks just like the low-volume consolidation before every CPI release in 2024— 99% of people are too scared by macro data to act, only for a single bullish candle to pull price back to $80,000 after the data is released. The moment CPI is released, you’ll realize: The bull market didn’t end; you were shaken out again. At $77,800, do you dare buy the dip? #Gate主流CEXTop4 #苹果发布会 #GateUS与RQDClearing达成战略合作 $BTC $ETH $SOL

September 10 Evening Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis The bears still had a slight edge in the afternoon session. BTC once again came under pressure and pulled back around 78500, with the overall move not particularly large. However, the bears have kept the price relatively low and even made an active move downward. ETH was likewise suppressed by resistance around 2480 and remains in the lower range, currently near the support level we highlighted this afternoon. Although the short-term support zone has not been fully breached, the bears still have the upper hand in momentum, and the KDJ on the 1-hour timeframe is also showing signs of diverging downward. If BTC breaks below 77500 on heavy volume, it will continue seeking effective support around the 77000 level. ETH is now being suppressed around 2460, while 2440 is key support below; a break below it would send the price down toward the 2420-2430 range. Be sure to set stop-losses for short-term volatility tonight! Also monitor volume trends at the U.S. stock market open. $BTC #GateUS与RQDClearing达成战略合作 $ETH

Repeatedly testing support—can 77600 hold? Bitcoin has reached the end of a descending wedge. 77600 is the strong support for this cycle and has already been tested three times. A large amount of capital was accumulated around 77600 earlier. If it holds, the wedge’s lower trendline remains valid, and a rebound can be traded. The upside target is 79200. If the 77600 support breaks, the wedge structure will become invalid immediately, opening up deeper downside. Ethereum can likewise be referenced at 2440. A pullback to support could offer a rebound trade; consider short positions at the resistance level.$BTC $ETH