BITCOIN SUPPLY TREND JUST FLASHED A WARNING $BTC exchange reserves have broken above the 200D SMA for the first time in a meaningful way, challenging the 2-year downtrend. More BTC is becoming liquid again, A potential shift from supply scarcity toward distribution. If reserves stay above the 200D SMA + whale inflows rise → bearish pressure could accelerate.

APR at $0.18—are you going to buy the dip? Look at the surface first: a surge and plunge, leaving a complete mess. On August 12, the official team announced a buyback of 5.3% of the total supply (52.8 million tokens), sending the price directly from the lows to double and surge to 0.4-0.6. Two days later, a huge red candle slammed it back to 0.14, a drop of over 60%. Social platforms exploded: “RUG!” “The team dumped!” But there is no hard evidence of an exit scam. The 0.17-0.18 range has been repeatedly tested, RSI has entered oversold territory, and trading volume expanded to massive levels during the plunge. It is either the bottom or an abyss. First: the buyback is real, but “buyback” does not equal “price pump.” The team spent real money buying back 5.3% of the supply from early investors, redirecting it toward community incentives and ecosystem development. As soon as the news came out, market FOMO went into overdrive—the price doubled in two days and peaked at 0.6. But the buyback was from early investors, not the secondary market. Whales successfully sold, and retail investors successfully became exit liquidity. Look at that wick from 0.6 back to 0.14—who dumped it? In any case, it was not retail investors. Second: the fundamentals cannot support 0.6; even 0.2 is a stretch. The total supply is 1 billion, with 278 million in circulation. The market cap is approximately $50 million, but the FDV is as high as $180-200 million. What does that mean? At the current price of 0.18, if the entire supply were circulating, the actual value would only be $0.09. The protocol’s TVL is only $500k-$800k, and net protocol revenue over the past 12 months was only a few thousand dollars. A few thousand dollars in revenue supporting a $200 million valuation—this is not investing; it is a faith top-up. Third: the technicals tell you that retail investors trying to buy the dip have already been buried twice. From 0.6 to 0.14, the drop exceeded 70%. Daily RSI has entered oversold territory, and a bullish divergence is beginning to appear on the 4H timeframe. It looks beautiful. But every rebound to 0.19-0.20 comes with declining volume, indicating that no new capital is entering; it is all trapped holders trying to rescue themselves. The 0.17-0.18 area is the bulls’ final line of defense—break below 0.146 and the next target is 0.10; hold 0.17 and see volume increase, and there is a chance of reaching 0.25. Bulls versus bears—you decide On one side: Buyback of 5.3% of the supply; the deflationary narrative remains From 0.6 to 0.14, a 70% drop; RSI oversold The Monad ecosystem has long-term potential (high-throughput chain + MEV narrative) A market cap of only $50 million means a low cost to pump On the other side: TVL is only $500,000, with annual revenue of a few thousand dollars FDV is severely overvalued ($200 million vs. actual revenue) The buyback essentially allows early investors to cash out The macro environment is weak, and small-cap altcoins follow declines but not gains Key levels Upside resistance: 0.19-0.20 → 0.22-0.25 → 0.30+ (previous high area) Downside support: 0.17 → 0.146-0.15 (strong support) → 0.10-0.12 Trading strategy Aggressive gamblers (short term): Wait for volume-backed stabilization around 0.17-0.173 before cautiously going long, with a target of 0.19-0.20 and a stop-loss at 0.165. Most people: Wait for a bottom formation and a high-volume bullish candle in the 0.146-0.15 range before considering an entry. Bearish approach: If a rebound to 0.19-0.20 meets resistance on declining volume, cautiously try a short, targeting 0.17-0.15, with a stop-loss at 0.205. APR’s current script— It is exactly the same as those “buyback narrative + low TVL” altcoins from 2024-2025: announce bullish news → pump → FOMO → whales sell → crash → rebound → continued selling. The buyback is real, but the people making money are early investors. The money you make is the portion someone else deliberately left on the table for you to see. When a project uses a few thousand dollars in revenue to support a $200 million valuation, it is not worth that much—you are helping someone else hold the price at that level. Did you make money or lose money on APR? At 0.18, do you dare bet on a rebound? #比特币变盘信号出现 #我的七夕交易分享 #Gate7月增长Top1 $BTC $ETH $APR

Bitcoin cycle analysis The time is not yet right$BTC ‌