#BTC On the Bitcoin one-hour chart, if a five-wave decline is developing, the starting point of Wave 2 and the high of Wave 4 cannot overlap in their candle bodies. In other words, the one-hour candle body must not close above 63,860, and the four-hour candle body must not close above 63,950. Even if there is an upward spike, do not chase a long position; wait for the candle to close. If the four-hour candle closes above that level, you can consider entering a long position.$BTC ‌

#我的七夕交易分享 ETF Buying Streak Reaches 8 Days, Yet Bitcoin Surges and Plunges 2%! What Is the Market Hiding? On August 12, Bitcoin staged a “textbook” bull trap. It surged during the morning session, then quickly turned lower, with the biggest intraday decline reaching 2%. But strangely, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw another net inflow of $178 million yesterday (August 11, U.S. Eastern Time). Institutions are buying while the price is falling. This is not a divergence—it means someone is quietly accumulating while others are panic-selling. And the real main event has nothing to do with that 2% fluctuation on the chart. I. ETFs Buy for 8 Straight Days, August Inflows Already 5 Times Those of July If you only look at the price, Bitcoin appears to be grinding painfully between $63,500 and $64,500. But if you open the ETF ledger, you might be shocked: From August 3 to August 11, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows for 8 consecutive trading days, totaling more than $1 billion. The week of August 3–7 alone saw inflows of $853.5 million. What does that mean? Throughout July, Bitcoin ETFs saw only $172.4 million in inflows. With less than two weeks of August gone, inflows are already nearly 5 times those of July. Even more remarkably, BlackRock’s IBIT alone absorbed approximately 70%–81% of the inflows. BlackRock is not speculating—it is building a position. II. Mastercard Spends $1.8 Billion as the Stablecoin War Officially Begins Just in the past few days, payments giant Mastercard completed its acquisition of stablecoin infrastructure company BVNK for as much as $1.8 billion. The deal was reached after fierce competition from Coinbase and Visa. Why is Mastercard willing to spend so much money? Because stablecoins are eating into its business. Over the past 12 months, total stablecoin on-chain transfer volume reached $46 trillion, while adjusted actual payment volume was approximately $9 trillion—already close to Mastercard’s full-year 2025 payment volume of $10.6 trillion. The most critical point is that this $9 trillion does not pass through a single Mastercard card. Mastercard spent $1.8 billion not to buy technology, but to buy a ticket to avoid being kicked out of the game. This sends an extremely strong signal: Traditional financial giants are betting real money on the underlying infrastructure of crypto assets. III. The Era of “Zero Bank Liquidity” Is About to End This is the most explosive statement today. Christopher Perkins, an executive at Franklin Templeton, recently said on a podcast: **“At this stage of crypto market development, bank liquidity is zero. Zero.”** **“If the CLARITY Act passes, the banks will put the pedal to the metal.”** Perkins said he deals with banks every week, and their attitudes are surprisingly consistent: They are not opposed to crypto; they are simply waiting for a federal-level regulatory framework. Although the CLARITY Act has been postponed by the Senate for consideration in the fall, Perkins revealed an even more important detail: Market makers told him that the pace of institutional account openings can no longer keep up. New clients are lining up to enter the market, not sitting on the sidelines. **“Sentiment is terrible, but the fundamentals are improving—that disconnect is where the opportunity lies.”** IV. On-Chain Data Warns of a “Major Market Move” Renowned on-chain analyst Ali Martinez recently posted a chart on X: Bitcoin’s net capital flow is forming a bullish divergence with its price. The last time this signal appeared was before Bitcoin rose from $15,000 to $126,000. In plain English: Money has quietly flowed in, but the price has not moved yet. In traditional financial markets, this is called the “accumulation phase”; in crypto, it is called “the calm before the storm.” V. But August Remains Bitcoin’s “Danger Zone” Don’t rush into FOMO. Bitcoin closed at $63,551 on August 11, down 0.56%. Today (August 12), it surged before turning lower, at one point plunging 2% from the daily high. Technically, Bitcoin is forming a textbook “head-and-shoulders top,” with the neckline at $60,965. Once it breaks below that level, the downside target could be as low as $54,000 or even $41,266. What hurts even more is the historical data: August is Bitcoin’s worst-performing month of the year, with a historical median decline of 7.87%. In other words, statistically speaking, Bitcoin is far more likely to fall than rise in August. VI. In Closing: Buckle Up—A Major Market Move May Be Brewing The market is currently at an extremely delicate balance: The bulls’ cards: 8 consecutive days of ETF net inflows totaling more than $1 billion; Mastercard’s $1.8 billion acquisition of BVNK; traditional finance entering the market across the board; long-term holders accounting for 70.3% of holdings; an extremely tight circulating supply; annualized inflation of only 0.42% after the halving, with supply continuing to tighten; and on-chain capital flows diverging from price, a historical precursor to major market moves. The bears’ trump cards: August is Bitcoin’s worst month historically; the head-and-shoulders pattern is hanging over the market, with the neckline at $60,965; the CLARITY Act has been delayed, and regulatory uncertainty remains; the Federal Reserve is maintaining high interest rates, keeping the macro environment under pressure; and today’s 2% plunge after a surge has dented short-term bullish confidence. This is not a battle between bulls and bears—it is a game of “who blinks first.” $60,965 is the bears’ hunting ground, while $66,885 is the bulls’ line of life and death. A breakout could send Bitcoin straight to $76,000+; a breakdown could send it sliding toward $54,000. And Mastercard’s $1.8 billion deal, Franklin Templeton’s “zero bank liquidity” declaration, and the ETFs’ continuous $1 billion buying spree—none of these are retail behaviors. This is Wall Street positioning in advance. Do you think Bitcoin will break upward or break below the neckline in August? Share your thoughts in the comments! This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. $BTC ‌ ‌

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