On Wednesday, the shorts were still counting their money; by Friday, their phones were ringing off the hook—SpaceX wiped out $327 billion in two days in a textbook short squeeze On Wednesday, those shorting SpaceX were still popping champagne. The earnings report showed revenue of $7.8 billion, up 92% year over year and above expectations. But AI capital expenditures were $18.3 billion, 2.35 times revenue. The stock plunged 14%, hitting a new post-listing low. The short interest ratio surged to 36%. Shorts had more than $9 billion in paper profits. They thought they had won. Two days later, some of them may have been taking calls demanding additional margin. On Thursday, 911.5 million lock-up shares were unlocked. The float surged from 639 million to 1.55 billion shares—more than doubling. $100 billion in potential selling pressure. Everyone thought a stampede was coming. Analysts warned that insiders were preparing to flee and the stock was about to collapse. But what happened? The stock rose 6%. On Friday, it rose another 16%. It gained 23% over the two days. Its market cap increased by $327 billion. It shot from $108 to $128, just one step away from the $135 IPO offering price. Miller Tabak chief strategist said bluntly: “I’m sure some bearish bets had to be covered today.” This was not a fundamentals-driven rally. It was a trading-structure-driven short squeeze. Before the unlock, short positions accounted for 36% of the float. After the unlock, the float doubled, diluting the ratio to 16%. But what about the absolute number? More than 250 million shares are still sold short. The co-founder of Ortex Technologies said something that really hit home: “There is no sign whatsoever of shorts taking profits. If anything has changed, it’s that they’ve increased their bets.” 95% of the lendable shares have already been borrowed to short. In other words— Almost everything available to borrow has been borrowed. The options market is adding fuel to the fire. On Friday, SpaceX options volume reached 2.24 million contracts, including 1.3 million calls—a record high. Money is betting with real capital that the short squeeze is not over yet. Data from Vanda Research showed that even after the post-earnings plunge, SpaceX remained the most purchased individual stock among U.S. retail investors. Are retail investors catching the falling knife? No, they are adding fuel to the fire. What about Musk? He posted on X: “I tried to warn them, but all they do is double down.” A month earlier, he had said something even harsher: “Institutions holding large SpaceX short positions for the long term have an extremely low probability of survival.” No one believed him at the time. What about now? But things are not that simple. The unlock is only the first wave. SpaceX uses a nine-stage phased unlock mechanism. August was just the beginning, with multiple additional batches of shares to be unlocked over time. Moreover, based on Friday’s closing price of $128, the stock remains just short of the $135 IPO offering price. Once it breaks above $135, that will be another psychological threshold. Shorts now face a classic dilemma— If they close their positions, they not only give up $9 billion in paper profits but may also push the stock even higher. If they do not close, losses have no limit if the stock continues to rise. That is the cruelty of shorting: potential losses are unlimited because the stock has no ceiling. Here is the painful truth: On Wednesday, the shorts thought they were the hunters. By Friday, they realized they were the prey. The 250 million shorted shares are a sword of Damocles hanging over the shorts. For every $1 the stock rises, shorts lose more than $300 million. This is not an ordinary rebound. It is a trading-structure-driven short squeeze—the longer shorts hold out, the stronger the rebound; the stronger the rebound, the less able shorts are to hold out. Once this positive feedback loop starts, it is difficult to stop. What happens next? Two things to watch: First, can the stock hold above $135 at Monday’s open? Breaking above it would reclaim the IPO offering price and completely shatter the shorts’ psychological defenses. Second, will options volume continue to expand? The 1.3 million call contracts may not be the end; they may be the beginning. This is not a fundamentals-driven rally; it is a trading-structure-driven short squeeze. The 250 million shorted shares are a sword of Damocles hanging over the shorts. Do you think SPCX can break above $135 next week? Will the shorts be completely blown out?#非农爆雷降息预期逆转 #股票交易分享挑战 #美国ADP就业仅增4.4万 $BTC $SPCX $TSLA

Majority Leader Thune submitted the CLARITY Act on the last day before the recess. In other words, when they return from recess, there will be a vote on the motion to end debate on September 15. Beijing time: September 16, 2026 (Wednesday) at 2:15 a.m. Whether it passes or not, this will most likely be the rebound high of the $BTC phase. This script works, right? $BTC $ETH ‌ ‌

Will Bitcoin move up or down in the latter part of its trend? Let’s discuss it together. From the chart, Bitcoin pulled back after rising to around 66900 earlier, gradually falling to the 62200 area where it stabilized. Current resistance is concentrated at 65300 and 65800, and the market is repeatedly testing a breakout. It will most likely first test the major resistance at 66900 before determining whether increased volume can open up further upside. Next week’s pace is expected to favor an initial pullback to build momentum, with a retracement to the 62800‑63300 range before a slow upward move begins. Long-term outlook for next week Long positions can be built in batches around 63800‑63300, with upside targets at 65800‑66800‑67800. Make reasonable plans based on your own position size and strictly maintain your defenses$BTC $ETH #MoonshotAIPreIPOs开启